As stolen bases continue to rise league wide, I’m here every Wednesday to help you track important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Last week, I talked about Agustín Ramírez’s struggles behind the plate and four bases were stolen in the four games he caught over the last week.
Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.
The Marlins are stealing bases at will led by Xavier Edwards and Jakob Marsee, but more on that below.
Jordan Walker playing everyday (for the moment) and stealing any bases makes him attractive in deeper leagues.
Now, here is the overall stolen base leaderboard on the season.
José Caballero’s playing time has dried up, starting just twice in about two weeks since being traded to the Yankees at the deadline. He’s firmly a drop candidate.
Next, here are some players that we’d hoped would be more aggressive or efficient on the base paths.
Jackson Merrill hasn’t attempted a single stolen base since his concussion on one back in June. Don’t expect that to change any time soon either.
Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
The Braves and Red Sox tied for the most stolen bases allowed this week with 10 apiece.
Because of a funny scheduling quirk and make-up game, the Braves just wrapped up a five-game series against the Marlins where Miami stole nine bases without being caught!
Drake Baldwin was the primary culprit, having eight bases stolen in his three games behind the plate while Sean Murphy had just one in two.
Also, Murphy caught their game against the Brewers last Wednesday and caught two would-be base stealers. He’s clearly the superior defensive catcher in this tandem.
Baldwin has been picked on a bit this season too – most stolen bases allowed by any catcher with fewer than 60 starts and a poor 13% caught stealing rate – but Erick Fedde can be blamed for most of the Marlins’ onslaught.
Miami stole five bags during the five innings Fedde was on the mound for. With that, he tied Sandy Alcantara for the most stolen against any pitcher this season with 28.
Like Alcantara, he’s slow to the plate and allows runners to take huge leads and get massive jumps. Be sure to pay attention to Fedde’s upcoming starts.
There’s less of a discernible trend to report with the Red Sox. Connor Wong was behind the plate for eight of the 10 stolen bases they allowed. He’s been completely adequate in terms of catching runners this season though.
The same goes for Lucas Giolito, who had three bags stolen in the one game he pitched over the last week. He’s been strong in the running game for years now and is generally quick to the plate, so this likely isn’t the beginning of a pattern.
Rather, Fernando Tatis Jr. swiped third base two separate times in that game, so this was much more about Tatis seeing something he could exploit and not any deficiencies from Giolito or Wong.
Corbin Carroll: Grounded?
After stealing 89 combined bases over the last two seasons, Carroll has just 14 this year in 18 tries. That’s fewer than Josh Naylor (20), Trevor Story (20, without being caught, Xander Bogaerts (19), and Juan Soto (18).
It’s a serious break from the player we’ve both seen and expected him to be. It’s hard to even cast blame on a mid-season wrist injury that kept him out for nearly a month because Carroll stole just one base through his first three weeks of play, 10 in 72 games before going out, and four in 31 games since.
The Diamondbacks recently flip-flopped him and Geraldo Perdomo in the batting order, sending Carroll back to the three-hole and Perdomo to the top, but who knows if this even gets his wheels turning.
A 20 stolen base ceiling would drastically change Carroll’s cost in drafts next season, especially after two consecutive seasons of a batting average below .250.
