As stolen bases continue to rise league wide, I’m here every Wednesday to help you track important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Last week, I talked about the Mets’ remarkable base stealing efficiency and the fact that they haven’t been caught in almost two months. Well, they stole four more bases as a team over the past week and still haven’t been caught.
Juan Soto took two of those to give him 17 steals on the season as he closes in on the first 20-20 season of his career.
Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.
Josh Naylor steals bases now? More on that down below.
It’s nice to see Shohei Ohtani running again, but it’s pretty clear at this point that his full-season stolen base total will be a bit of a disappointment for fantasy managers.
Trevor Story has quietly been one of the best stories in baseball. He’s on the doorstep of his first 20-20 season since 2019 and has been a productive, everyday player for the resurgent Red Sox.
Now, here is the overall stolen base leaderboard on the season.
José Caballero has stormed back out in front of Oneil Cruz for the league-lead, but will likely cede some playing time now that his new teammate Aaron Judge is off the injured list.
CJ Abrams has very quietly inched his way up to this leaderboard as he continues to marry speed, patience, and power together for the first time in his career.
Next, here are some players that we’d hoped would be more aggressive or efficient on the base paths.
Jackson Holliday stole two bases this week without being caught! Perhaps he’s finally turning a corner as a base stealer.
Players like Jordan Beck and Zach Neto are fun because they will just stay aggressive no matter what else is going on around them.
Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
The Marlins and Agustín Ramírez are back in the crosshairs for teams seeking stolen bases. As a team, they allowed eight and didn’t catch a single runner over the past week and Ramírez was behind the plate for seven of those.
Five of those stolen bases with Ramírez catching came in one game against the Yankees last Friday night. Possibly the game of the season so far, the Marlins came back on multiple occasions to win a 13-12 thriller after scoring against all three of the Yankees’ new bullpen pieces they acquired at the deadline.
Ramírez, a former Yankee prospect traded for Jazz Chisholm Jr. last season, technically got the walk-off ‘hit’ on a swinging bunt that scored Xavier Edwards from third. He was in the middle of a few other rallies as well and is growing into what feels like a cornerstone piece for this upstart Marlins club.
With that, he’s been catching more often rather than being their designated hitter in an attempt to hide his poor defense. Entering play Wednesday, Ramírez has caught six of their last nine games compared to 12 of the 28 games prior.
At the same time, he’s probably the worst defensive catcher in the league at the moment. His 9% caught stealing rate is worst among catchers with at least 25 starts and he’s at or near the bottom of the league in terms of caught stealing above average, blocks above average, and pop time according to Statcast. Politely, it’s a work in progress back there.
It makes sense for the Marlins to give him lots of chances to be their catcher though. His bat is good enough to play at DH, but it would be elite as a catcher. Plus, he’s very young for the position. Him, Edgar Quero, and Francisco Alvarez are the only players 23 years old or younger to have caught at least 40 times this season. It often takes time to grow into the position.
With that, we should be aware of every game he’s catching and trying to stream stolen bases against him in any way possible.
Josh Naylor Steals Bases Now?
After stealing two more bases on Tuesday night against the White Sox, Naylor has stolen eight total in just 11 games since being traded to the Mariners.
That’s more than any other player in the league over that span and more bases than Naylor has stolen in any full season of his career besides 2023, when he stole 10. On the season, he’s swiped more bags (19) than Jackson Chourio (18), Xavier Edwards (17), Shohei Ohtani (16), and Corbin Carroll (14).
Truthfully, it doesn’t make any sense as to why this is happening either. Naylor ranks near the bottom of the league in sprint speed and has displayed this skill before.
Yet, the Mariners are clearly helping him to be more aggressive. While with the Diamondbacks, his average lead was 3.0 feet off the base. Now with the Mariners, it’s 4.6 feet, which is more than a 50% increase!
That foot and a half can make a big difference and with it, he’s attempted a stolen base 9.8% of the time over his last 11 games. For comparison’s sake, stolen base leader José Caballero is the only qualified player in the league with a stolen base attempt rate over 8%.
Other teams are giving Naylor an opportunity and he’s simply taking it.
