As stolen bases continue to rise league wide, I will be here every Wednesday to help you track important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Last week, I highlighted the Cubs and Rays as teams that were looking to run and they each stole 10 bases as a team over the past week.
Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.
Jorge Mateo led the league in steals over the past week despite only starting four games. He has the ability to pick up stolen bases in bunches.
Matt Shaw is back from the minor leagues and exhibiting all the same traits that pushed him near the top-200 towards the end of draft season. He’s an exciting option in 12-team leagues at the moment.
Now, here is the overall stolen base leaderboard on the season.
Luis Robert Jr. has overtaken Oneil Cruz – who’s only attempted two stolen bases in 11 games since he missed time with back tightness – for the league lead here.
It’s been a marvel to watch Kyle Tucker and Victor Scott II’s efficiency on the base paths.
Next, here are some players that we’d hoped would be more aggressive or efficient on the base paths.
Jackson Holliday becoming an efficient base stealer would sky-rocket his fantasy value, especially considering how much his bat has come around.
Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
While I’ve mostly used this column to pick on the Marlins, they just had a banner week in terms of limiting stolen bases by their standards. Teams only swiped three bags against them and were caught once.
The week prior, they allowed at least three stolen bases in two separate games! And it’s not like the Marlins fell behind in a heap of blowouts either, all six of their games were within four runs, and four of those six were within two. Whatever the Marlins did last week, it worked.
Otherwise, the Colorado Rockies, for all their other warts, allowed the most stolen bases last week with 15.
Germán Márquez has been their most susceptible pitcher to the running game this season. He’s rated poorly in Baseball Savant’s Net Bases Prevented metric and the Phillies and Cubs combined to steal five bases against him over the past week.
Rookie Carson Palmquist was picked on this week as well. Bryce Harper singled in the first inning against him last Wednesday and promptly stole both second and third base. Trea Turner took one as well.
While their catching tandem of Hunter Goodman and Jacob Stallings have caught their fair share of base stealers, that’s mostly because of the incredibly high volume – 76 stolen base attempts, second behind the Marlins – of attempts against them. Each are near the bottom of the league in CS Above Average and will continue to be picked on.
Orioles Pushing Envelope
As Baltimore’s season has reached a disastrous point, it seems they’ve decided to throw caution to the wind. They attempted 14 stolen bases last week, most in the league. Up until the start of last week, they’d only attempted 26 all season.
They were successful in 11 of those tries. Jorge Mateo stole five himself in only four starts and wasn’t caught. Besides him, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Dylan Carlson, and Ryan O’Hearn each got in on the action as well.
Tony Mansolino has taken over managerial duties since Branon Hyde’s firing on May 17th, so it makes sense that the team philosophy could be changing.
Cardinal Question
Lastly, keep an eye on Cardinals catcher Iván Herrera.
He missed a month after opening the season as their starter behind the dish, but has only caught three times since returning.
That’s likely because he struggles back there. The Orioles stole three bases against him last night and if he starts there more often, teams will be running.
Pedro Pagés is much stronger behind the plate, having caught 33% of base stealers to this point in the season.
