Houston Astros
2023 record: 90-72 (.556)
First place, AL West
Team ERA: 3.94 (8th)
Team OPS: .768 (5th)
What Went Right
There were 36 players in baseball last season to post an OPS of at least .840 in 350 plate appearances. Five of them were Astros. Yordan Alvarez (.990), Jose Altuve (.915) and Kyle Tucker (.886) were all among the AL’s most valuable players while healthy, and Chas McCormick (.842) and Yainer Diaz (.846) made huge contributions in what were supposed to be more limited roles.
On the pitching side, Framber Valdez put together another ace-type season, and J.P. France proved to be more than just a stopgap in going 11-6 with a 3.83 ERA. Justin Verlander returned in a midseason trade and helped the Astros clinch the division by going 7-3 with a 3.31 ERA. The late-game trio Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu and Hector Neris was one of the best in the majors.
What Went Wrong
The team’s biggest offseason acquisition, José Abreu, was a huge disappointment for most of the year, though he did make up for it late with a nice September and a .296/.354/.591 line with 13 RBI in 11 postseason games. Cristian Javier slumped to a 4.56 ERA in the regular season, and Hunter Brown came in at 5.09 after a very rough second half. Luis Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery after six starts, and Lance McCullers Jr. never pitched last season after flexor tendon surgery.
Fantasy Slants
** Tucker got to spend more time hitting third and fourth last season after batting mostly fifth and sixth previously, and he led the AL with 112 RBI. He also swiped 30 bases despite being in the 32nd percentile for sprint speed. He’s not going to keep attempting steals like this forever, but he still might get a little better offensively; his strikeout rate was all of the way down to 13.6% last year and it cost him nothing in terms of power. With Dusty Baker departing, Tucker should be locked into a top-four lineup spot going forward. He’ll be an easy first-round pick in mixed leagues.
** Of course, Tucker only led the league in RBI last season because Alvarez (and maybe Corey Seager) missed so much time. Tucker collected his 112 RBI in 157 games. Alvarez drove in 97 runs in just 114 games. That Alvarez has spent time on the IL in four straight seasons (though only due to COVID in 2021) will result in him falling into the second round in most 12-team drafts, but he seems like a bargain at that point. No one in the leagues smacks the living daylights out of the baseball as often as he does; only Aaron Judge has a higher hard-hit rate on contact the last three years and Judge isn’t making as much contact.
** The Astros have already declared that Diaz will take over as the starting catcher after hitting .282/.308/.538 in 377 plate appearances as Martin Maldonado’s backup and a part-time DH last season. Very much a free swinger, Diaz brings to mind Salvador Perez in terms of approach and power, and unlike Perez, he’ll get to take aim at the Crawford Boxes half of the time. He’s a clear top-10 fantasy catcher for next year. A spot in the top five might not be unwarranted.
** Brown was the AL’s best rookie pitcher for three months, going 6-4 with a 3.62 ERA and a 97/30 K/BB ratio in 87 innings through the end of June. He had a 6.95 ERA while giving up a homer every four innings after that. On the season, 21% of the flyballs he gave up turned into homers, which was easily the highest rate of anyone who threw as many innings as he did. Even Lance Lynn, who gave up a league-high 46 homers, came in at 19% there. One imagines Brown will be more fortunate in that regard next season. The cause for concern is that if he doesn’t really establish himself early, he could be bumped to the pen at some point. The talent is there to make him at least a top-40 SP for fantasy purposes, but the situation makes him risky, particularly if the Astros opt to keep José Urquidy.
** It’s been fascinating to see Altuve post the highest and fourth-highest OPS+s of his career the last two seasons. Altuve led the AL in average three times from 2014-17, batting .334 with a 144 OPS+ over the four-year span. The next four years, though, saw him trade singles for extra power and come in at a far more modest .289 with a 124 OPS+. Even though he was still very good, it seemed like he was in decline as he entered his age-32 season in 2022. Instead, he hit .300 with a 161 OPS+, and he followed that up by batting .311 with a 151 OPS+ in 90 games after recovering from a broken hand last season. Altuve’s exit velocity numbers are worse than ever, but much like another former Astros second baseman, Craig Biggio, did as he got older, he’s become terrific at yanking balls down the left field line. The cause for concern is that the next exit velocity drop could turn some 380-foot homers into 360-foot outs. Still, doubting Altuve has never paid off for anyone.
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Key Free Agents
Michael Brantley, Martin Maldonado, Hector Neris, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek
Team Needs
First up is a manager to replace the retired Dusty Baker. The Astros are also losing a big chunk of their bullpen, but they’re already spending a lot of money there in employing Pressly, Rafael Montero and trade deadline pickup Kendall Graveman. Fortunately, the rotation appears pretty well stocked, with Urquidy, Brown and France battling for spots behind Valdez, Verlander and Javier initially and McCullers, Garcia and prospect Spencer Arrighetti hopefully playing roles down the line. The lineup really just needs a Brantley replacement or, if the Astros want to kick it up a notch, a true center fielder to push McCormick to left.
It’s possible 2024 will be the last hurrah for these Astros, with Altuve, Verlander and Alex Bregman all eligible for free agency after the season. At least, it’s going to be extremely expensive to keep an aging group together beyond that. For next year, though, there’s every reason to think they’ll be in the thick of things again.
