This week’s Prospect Positional will cover second baseman, a position in which there have been multiple graduations, one player back in the minor leagues and one player who has been so hot he has forced his way onto the top 10 despite lacking a top pedigree. In the major leagues, second base is often filled with players who were moved from other positions, and many second base prospects have yet to play second base. Additionally, I have selected the top three second base prospects from the 2014 draft to discuss.
Note: All statistics are current through Sunday, August 17.
Updated top-10
| Updated | July 1 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | N/R | Jose Peraza | Braves | Mississippi (AA) |
| 2 | MLB | N/R | Jorge Polanco | Twins | New Britain (AA) |
| 3 | 3 | N/R | Devon Travis | Tigers | Erie (AA) |
| 4 | 5 | N/R | Micah Johnson | White Sox | Charlotte (AAA) |
| 5 | 7 | 4 | Alen Hanson | Pirates | Altoona (AA) |
| 6 | 8 | 11 | Dilson Herrera | Mets | Binghamton (AA) |
| 7 | 6 | 2 | Alex Guerrero | Dodgers | Albuquerque (AAA) |
| 8 | 9 | N/R | Wendell Rijo | Red Sox | Greenville (Low-A) |
| 9 | 11 | N/R | Ryan Brett | Rays | Montgomery (AA) |
| 10 | N/R | N/R | Robert Refsnyder | Yankees | SWB (AAA) |
Superb performance
| Updated | July 1 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | N/R | Jose Peraza | Braves | Mississippi (AA) |
| 3 | 3 | N/R | Devon Travis | Tigers | Erie (AA) |
| 6 | 8 | 11 | Dilson Herrera | Mets | Binghamton (AA) |
| 10 | N/R | N/R | Robert Refsnyder | Yankees | SWB (AAA) |
Jose Peraza has had a slow start to August, hitting just .222/.250/.259 over the first seven games, dropping his Double-A line to .341/.366/.430 over 42 games. He has a total of 60 stolen bases in 2014, giving him his second consecutive season with at least 60. Peraza has the talent to hit .280 with 30-plus stolen bases, and has the speed to lead the league in stolen bases (though Billy Hamilton may have something to say about that).
As the Detroit Tigers have gone into full win-now mode at the major league level, Devon Travis has continued to hit in Double-A, putting up a .320/.381/.459 line since the beginning of July, raising his season line to .300/.352/.457 with 18 doubles, five triples and nine home runs. He is already 23, and his overall power numbers are unlikely to excite, but he could be a solid second baseman who hits .280 with 20-plus doubles and 10-plus stolen bases, which is a great return on a 13th round pick.
Dilson Herrera has been on fire since his promotion to Double-A Binghamton in mid-June, putting up a .328/.402/.551 line with 14 doubles, three triples and eight home runs. Herrera has seen a spike in his walk rate and isolated power from 2013 to 2014, while his strikeout rate has dropped significantly. Herrera lacks elite potential, but he could be a .300 hitter with 10 home runs and 20-plus doubles. He could be ready as soon as mid-2015, but is likely behind incumbent Daniel Murphy as well as Wilmer Flores on the Mets second base depth chart.
Robert Refsnyder began his professional career on a high note, as he was the College World Series Most Outstanding Player in 2012, leading the Arizona Wildcats to victory over the South Carolina Gamecocks in the championship series. Refsnyder was solid but not spectacular in 2013, hitting .283/.408/.404 for High-A Tampa after a two week cameo with Low-A Charleston. His bat came alive in 2014, as he hit .342/.385/.548 over 60 games with Double-A Trenton and is hitting .307/.392/.483 over 62 games with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Refsnyder is without a single elite tool, but has the potential to hit .280 with a handful of home runs and 25-plus doubles while being a fan favorite for his high baseball-IQ and hard work.
Holding serve
| Updated | July 1 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | MLB | N/R | Jorge Polanco | Twins | New Britain (AA) |
| 4 | 5 | N/R | Micah Johnson | White Sox | Charlotte (AAA) |
| 5 | 7 | 4 | Alen Hanson | Pirates | Altoona (AA) |
| 8 | 9 | N/R | Wendell Rijo | Red Sox | Greenville (Low-A) |
| 9 | 11 | N/R | Ryan Brett | Rays | Montgomery (AA) |
Jorge Polanco has hit just .261/.286/.318 over his first 22 games with Double-A New Britain, striking out 17 times over 93 plate appearances (18.3 percent). He has been playing more shortstop as of late, though 2014 draft pick Nick Gordon profiles as the Twins shortstop of the future. He has the talent to hit .280 with a couple of home runs, 20-plus doubles and 10-plus stolen bases in the major leagues, and should be up for good in mid-2015.
After hitting a robust .347/.394/.474 in July, Micah Johnson has struggled in August, hitting .149/.192/.213 through 12 games. He had a similar issue last year, hitting .202/.252/.273 with High-A Winston-Salem in August before being promoted to Double-A Birmingham to play in a few extra games. One major change from 2013 is Johnson’s stolen base total. He stole 84 bases in 2013 with a 76.4 percent success rate, and has only stolen 22 bases in 2014 with a 64.7 percent success rate. If his stolen bases decreased due to an increased success rate, it would be less disconcerting. He has the potential to hit .280 with 20-plus doubles and 30-plus stolen bases, but will need to prove that he can survive the long grind of a major league season before he will be rated among the upper half of major league second basemen.
Alen Hanson’s .281/.327/.438 line with Double-A Altoona is not amazing, but he has done well as of late, hitting .304/.364/.464with seven doubles, four triples and four home runs since the beginning of July. Moreover, it is a substantial improvement from his .255/.299/.380 line from his 35-game Double-A trial in 2013. Hanson has average power at best, and has the potential to hit .300 with 30-plus stolen bases. Additionally, in August Hanson was officially moved from shortstop to second base, erasing questions about his future defensive home.
After a power surge in July during which Wendell Rijo hit .259/.351/.543 with seven doubles, two triples and four home runs, Rijo has kept up the power, putting up a .180 isolated power in August. However, he is hitting just .258/.348/.427 for the season. This is actually pretty impressive, given that Rijo won’t turn 19 until September and the average age for a player in the South Atlantic League is nearly 22.
Ryan Brett hit .337/.365/.478 in July, but has come back to earth in August, hitting just .240/.240/.400 over six games. He profiles as a .300 hitter with the speed to steal 30 bases, but has minimal power and could get overpowered by better pitchers. In 2012, he was suspended for 50 games for taking Adderall without a prescription.
Struggling
| Updated | July 1 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | 2 | Alex Guerrero | Dodgers | Albuquerque (AAA) |
Alex Guerrero should really get a pass for his recent struggles. He was hitting .376/.417/.735 when a fight with then-teammate Miguel Olivo ended when Olivo bit off part of Guerrero’s ear. Since his return to Triple-A Albuquerque he has hit .225/.262/.288 over 21 games. Additionally, he has been moved around the diamond, starting 12 games at second base, seven games in left field, one game at shortstop and one game at third base. Guerrero is set to make $14 million over the next three seasons, but is blocked by Dee Gordon, who has settled into second base in Los Angeles.
New Draftees (listed alphabetically)
| Updated | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draftees | Trace Loehr | Athletics | AZL (Rookie) |
| Draftees | Josh Morgan | Rangers | Spokane (SSA) |
| Draftees | Forrest Wall | Rockies | Grand Junction (Rookie) |
The Athletics were likely thrilled to pick Trace Loehr with the 27th pick of the 6th round (192nd overall) of the 2014 draft, and agreed to a $600,000 bonus, which is the allotted slot value for the 89th pick. Loehr is currently a shortstop, but his average range and average arm would make him a fringe-average shortstop, which could necessitate moving him to second base. He has the potential to hit for a high average, but has below-average power, which will leave him as a doubles hitter. He is old for a high school pick, as he turned 19 in May, and has not done particularly well during his time in professional baseball, hitting just .216/.288/.257 over his first 38 games.
After selecting Josh Morgan with the 95th overall pick (3rd round) in the 2014 draft, they agreed to an above-slot bonus of $800,000, more in line with the 70th overall pick. Morgan has below-average power but employs a quick swing to hit for a high average. He has good speed and an above-average arm, but will likely end up at second base long-term. Morgan has excelled in his introduction to professional baseball, hitting .336/.468/.372 with more walks (19) than strikeouts (13) over 33 games in the rookie-level Arizona League. He has continued to hit in the short season-A Northwest League, hitting .317/.404/.341 over 11 games despite being an 18-year old in a league where the average age is roughly 21.
Forrest Wall was the 35th overall pick in the 2014 draft, as the Rockies liked his potential to hit .300 with 15-plus home runs and 30-plus stolen bases. He had surgery on his throwing shoulder in 2011, which hurt his arm strength and will limit him to second base. Wall could also be moved to center field, where he could be an above-average defender. He has done very well during his introduction to professional baseball, hitting .325/.412/.465 in the rookie-level Pioneer League, which is one of the most offense-friendly leagues.
