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Thanksgiving Day is behind us. You’re stuffed. You’re happy. And you’re fresh off enjoying the best football the country has to offer.
Of course, I’m talking about the Thanksgiving college games between Fresno State and San Jose State, along with the Egg Bowl matchup between Ole Miss and Mississippi State. In the year 2021, I refuse to believe that folks are still mindlessly subjecting themselves to the torture of Detroit Lions football as they stuff their faces with bird and sweet potatoes.
Now it’s Friday, Black Friday.
You’re being dragged out of bed early, ready to fake enjoyment in front of whoever had to get the best deal on TVs, shoes, electronics, and the exercise bike they’re never going to use.
While they peruse the stores aisle by aisle, you decide to slip off to do some bargain buying of your own. You open your DraftKings app, select the college football Saturday main slate, and are ready to find out which players are coming in on the cheap on this glorious holiday weekend.
Fortunately, I have just the players for you. So continue reading, hop in the car, and wherever the day takes you, pack your DFS lineups full of value and seize the day!
Sean Clifford, Penn State QB
Game: Michigan State (+2) vs. Penn State - O/U 52
DraftKings Price: $6,100
For full disclosure, I was ready to go all-in on Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson ($6,000) earlier in the week, after reports surfaced that fellow quarterback Emory Jones (ankle) would miss Saturday’s regular season finale against Florida State following an injury suffered in practice.
Now, the reports on Jones being out have been flipped around, as the Gators are saying that Jones is healthy and will be available. Whether or not you want to buy into Jones playing or not is a judgement call you’ll have to make on your own, but I loved the prospects of Richardson as a full-time starter this weekend. Now he comes with some risk even at his price.
As a result of my Richardson doubt, I’ve opted to pivot to Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford, who played in only one quarter of last week’s 28-0 win over Rutgers. Clifford was dealing with a stomach bug leading up to Saturday’s game, and was even on IV’s before the game as the team tried to ready him for their matchup with the Scarlett Knights. But after one quarter, and a 2-for-8 passing effort that featured only 23-yards through the air, head coach James Franklin opted to bench Clifford in favor of freshman Christian Veilleux.
On the year, Clifford is averaging 18.2 fantasy points per game on DraftKings, but has played above that average in six of Penn State’s 11 games this season. In most of the games he struggled, you can see that Clifford, who is somewhat limited in what he can do on the field, faced elite defenses such as Wisconsin (14.4 points), Iowa (13.4 points) and Michigan (13.8 points).
If we throw Clifford’s flu game against Rutgers (1.3 points) in the trash, then he’s actually averaged 19.9 fantasy points per game, which ranks as the overall QB10 on this weekend slate that features 26 teams.
This weekend, Clifford gets a matchup with a porous Michigan State defense that is allowing the most passing yards per game (340.3) and the 20th most touchdown passes per game (2.1).
In their last three games, Michigan State has allowed opposing quarterbacks to 35.14, 25.6 and 43.88 fantasy points, on 10 touchdown passes to just one interception.
To put it simply, you play opposing quarterbacks against Michigan State whenever you can.
Clifford also has the benefit of throwing to wide receiver Jahan Dotson (83/1,045/10), who has been one of the best receivers in the Big Ten this season and is averaging 24.6 fantasy points per game in his own right.
While you’re downing leftovers in front of the TV on Saturday, be sure you feast on some fantasy points as well by getting Clifford into your lineups.
Chase Brown, Illinois RB
Game: Illinois (-6.5) vs. Northwestern - O/U 44.5
DraftKings Price: $5,800
Neither Illinois (4-7) or Northwestern (3-8) are enjoying what the 2021 season has brought them, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t enjoy their season finale by jamming Illinois running back Chris Brown into our lineups.
Playing in an Illinois offense that is scoring just 17.7 points per game (122nd), Brown has been leaned on heavily by the Illini win or lose. Quarterbacks Brandon Peters and Artur Sitkowski have led Illinois to just 148.4 passing yards per game on the season, while Brown has rushed for 893 yards and four touchdowns on 156 carries (5.7 YPC).
Come hell or high water, Illinois continues to pound the rock with Brown as he’s averaged 20.6 carries per game over the last seven weeks, and has two 200+ yard games to his name. In the overtime marathon against Penn State in Week 8, Brown reeled off 223 yards and a touchdown against a stout Nittany Lions defense, and also enjoyed a 147-yard performance against a solid Minnesota front.
This weekend against Northwestern, Brown has a chance to enjoy one more big day before the season draws to a close.
Of the many flaws Northwestern has, perhaps its most glaring is its run defense. Northwestern is allowing the 13th most rushing yards per game on the season (214.1) and 2.5 rushing touchdowns per game, tied for the 12th most.
Over their past five games, the Wildcats have allowed a blistering 221.2 rushing yards per game to opposing offenses, with the only team being held under 185 rushing yards being Purdue being held to just 51 yards on 22 carries last week, which isn’t saying much for one of the worst rushing offenses in the nation (76.7 rushing yards per game).
Brown has seen 40% of Illinois’ rushing attempts on the season, and turned in some big days against good defenses. A high-volume day against one of the worst run defenses in the nation could be the kind that breaks a slate wide open.
Parker Washington, Penn State WR
Game: Michigan State (+2) vs. Penn State - O/U 52
DraftKings Price: $4,100
Why not double dip on Penn State players against the nation’s worst pass defense?
Sure, you could break the bank for Jahan Dotson ($7,900), or you could go all the way down to Penn State’s WR2, Parker Washington ($4,100) and really open yourself up for higher-priced players elsewhere.
Washington has been one of the most reliable slot receivers in the nation, hauling in 53 receptions for 662 yards and three touchdowns on 73 targets.
In terms of production, Washington does come with a little bit of a boom or bust risk. He has gone for 100-yards just twice on the season, and has surpassed 50 receiving yards in just five of 11 games.
Washington has been on a bit of a heater as of late.
Over his last four games he has totaled 288 yards (72.0 yards per game) and 21 receptions on 31 targets (7.8 targets per game) while also finding the end zone once. He’s gone for 13.2 fantasy points or more in three of those four games, and would need just 12.3 fantasy points to triple his $4,100 price tag on the slate.
In a dud game against Maryland, where he caught just two passes for 16 yards, Washington still saw eight targets but struggled to do much with them in what was his worst outing of the season.
Walker is also slippery after the catch. According to Pro Football Focus, the second year wide receiver has forced 14 missed tackles on the season, which is tied for 23rd most in the nation, ahead of fellow PSU wide receiver Jahan Dotson, who has forced just seven missed tackles.
A Clifford/Washington stack could pay tremendous dividends this weekend, with the truly galaxy brain play perhaps being Clifford/Dotson/Washington, which could be affordable as well.
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