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With another exciting week of college football upon us, it’s time to get back into the NBC Sports EDGE DFS Projections tool to find more great value’s on this weekend’s main slate of games.
In last week’s article, we highlighted three players who looked like strong values based on the projections tool, as well as the breakdown of the game(s) and that matchups that each player faced heading into the week.[[ad:athena]]
Of the three players we highlighted, Utah State quarterback Logan Bonner ($5600) struggled mightily, as he managed only 4.8 points on DraftKings. But Missouri running back Tyler Badie ($6900) and SMU wide receiver Danny Gray ($7100) both returned value, scoring 27.6 (RB7) and 26.0 (WR7) points respectively.
Looking to build on last week’s success, here are some value plays we could target for the Week 4 DFS main slate (all odds via PointsBet Sportsbook).
Matt Corral, Ole Miss QB
Game: Alabama (-14.5) vs. Ole Miss - O/U 79.5
DraftKings Price: $9,200
Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral has been nothing short of spectacular for the Rebels this season.
Through three games, Corral and the Rebels are 3-0, as he has gone 67-for-100 passing for 1,002 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions. Corral also leads the rebels in rushing yards with 203, and touchdowns, with five.
From an efficiency standpoint, Corral is averaging 1.3 fantasy points per pass attempt, and 1.9 points per completion. Of course, these totals are boosted by his rushing floor, as 45.8 (38.2%) of his 127.6 fantasy points on the season have come on the ground.
The one caveat heading into this weekend is that Corral hasn’t faced the likes of an Alabama defense this season, with his wins coming over Louisville, Austin Peay and Tulane.
As it stands right now, Alabama ranks 27th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game (167.8) and 17th in total yards allowed per game (283.8). Alabama’s toughest matchup came in Week 3 when they traveled to Florida to face the Gators.
Quarterback Emory Jones, who also has great mobility, completed 17-of-27 passes for 194 yards against the Crimson Tide, but failed to throw for a score while tossing one interception. Jones did however rush for 76 yards and a touchdown, finishing the day with 20.4 DraftKings points.
Alabama’s Week 3 matchup at Florida had an O/U of 60 by the start of kickoff, which is a stark difference between the O/U of 79.5 that we are currently looking at between Alabama and Ole Miss.
While Alabama’s defense is staunch, it isn’t unbeatable. Florida proved this in Week 3 when they posted 29 points on it. Now Corral and the Rebels will set out to do the same... or better.
Ole Miss has been an offensive juggernaut thus far. Corral aside, wide receiver Dontario Drummond has posted a receiving line of 20/339/4 while fellow receiving Jonathan Mingo isn’t too far behind with 15/290/3. Per Pro Football Focus, Drummond is the ninth highest graded receiver in the nation (87.7) which isn’t surprising given the perfect QB rating of 158.3 that Corral has when targeting him.
As a team, Ole Miss leads the nation in yards per game (635.3), which is nearly 100 yards per game more than second ranked Ohio State (559.3 yards per game.)
While Corral’s price tag of $9,200 doesn’t sound like a bargain as the third most expensive QB on the slate, our projections have him locked in for the most points of the weekend (45.1, 4.9 PTS/$1,000).
It could also be worth noting that last season against Alabama, Corral went for 31.0 fantasy points as he threw for 365 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for an additional 54 yards.
TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State RB
Game: Rutgers (+14.5) vs. Ohio State - O/U 58.5
DraftKings Price: $6,600
Heading into their Week 5 home tilt against Ohio State, Rutgers ranks 41st in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game (115.0), but has also bullied its way to two wins over Temple and Delaware, and narrowly escaped a 17-7 win at Syracuse in Week 2.
Week four was a bit of a different story for the Scarlet Knights. While they did manage to keep the game close, they ultimately feel 20-13 on the road to Michigan, despite a solid defensive effort in which they allowed only 275 yards of total offense.
Now Rutgers gets another Big Ten test this weekend when it hosts 3-1 Ohio State as 14.5 point home underdogs. On the season, Ohio State ranks eighth in the nation in points per game (43.2) and is second 19th in the nation in rushing yards per game (222.3).
Led by a trio of running backs, the best back of the group thus far has been freshman running back TreVeyon Henderson.
After seeing just 17 carries for 69 yards and one touchdown through the first three weeks of the season, Henderson erupted in Week 3 against Tulsa for 23/270/3, nearly setting the single-game rushing yards record for Ohio State. In the Buckeyes’ 59-7 win over Akron in Week 4, Henderson saw only eight carries, but turned them into 93 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Running backs Miyan Williams and Master Teague took over for Henderson early in the blow out, as Henderson’s last touch of the day came on a 14-yard touchdown run midway through the second quarter.
From a fantasy perspective, Henderson is looks like a force to be reckoned with, but his DraftKings price of $6,600 this week doesn’t reflect it, as he’s only the 10th highest-priced back on the slate. There could be a number of reasons for this, whether it’s concerns over a backfield split, the game being un-competitive and OSU pulling its starters early or concerns that Rutgers defense might limit all backs... we don’t quite know.
With that being said, Henderson looks like he is in an optimal spot to pay off at his current price tag.
The fact that coach Ryan Day pulled Henderson as early as he did in Week 4, while letting Miyan Williams and Master Teague see touches throughout the duration of the game is a good indicator that Henderson is the unquestioned starter and Ohio State wants to keep him upright. This may suggest less of a backfield split going forward.
Secondly, Williams popped in points per touch among all the running backs on this week’s slate, averaging an absurd 2.1 fantasy points per touch. Missouri running back Tyler Badie was second on the list at 1.5 points per touch. Badie’s ($8,200) floor is also boosted by his 20 receptions for 176 yards and three touchdowns, compared to Henderson who has only caught three passes for 87 yards.
Henderson would only need 19.8 DraftKings points this weekend to triple his $6,660 price point (6.6 x 3 = 19.8), which seems more than attainable if he sees the bell cow workload we are expecting.
Even with Rutgers as 14.5-point home dogs, if the game stays within the spread, it should remain competitive enough for Henderson to be relied on most of the day.
Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss WR
Game: Alabama (-14.5) vs. Ole Miss - O/U 79.5
DraftKings Price: $6,100
As previously mentioned under the Matt Corral portion of the article, Ole Miss as two stud receivers in Dontario Drummond and Jonathan Mingo.
In a lot of ways, their production on the season has been similar, with Drummond just edging out Mingo in every statistical category as a receiver.
| RECS | YDS | TDS | PPR/REC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontario Drummond | 20 | 339 | 4 | 4.6 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 15 | 290 | 3 | 4.3 |
In terms of fantasy efficiency, Drummond still holds an edge with 4.6 points per reception. As is the case with targets, Drummond has 27 targets on the season Mingo 25.
While their production is similar, their DraftKings price points for this weekend are not.
Drummond is coming in as the third-highest priced receiver on the slate at $7,500, while Mingo is coming in well below him at $6,100.
What’s also worth noting is how each receiver lines up.
According to Pro Football Focus, Drummond has seen 81.7% of his snaps come from the slot, while Mingo is purely an outside three with 91.1% of his snaps coming out wide.
Mingo is also a tremendous downfield threat, sporting a 13.4 average depth of target, which leads all Rebels receivers. He has seen five targets of 20 or more yards on the season, catching three of those targets for 105 yards and three touchdowns.
While this could make Mingo a bit of a boom or bust player, his price point relative to Drummond’s makes him an interesting play in a game that we still expect to be high-scoring. The volume is there for Mingo, who is averaging 8.3 targets per game, and we know he can take the top off a defense at any time.
Considering Mingo over Drummond will also make it a bit easier to pair an Ole Miss receiver with Corral, who you will be paying up on in order to roster him this weekend.
Our projections only have Mingo going for 10.1 fantasy points, which feels far too low given the projected game total, Mingo’s volume and the potential for Corral and company having to throw at a high rate to stay in this game.
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