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Week 8 of the college football DFS season got off to a scary start thanks in part to a highly-priced quarterback (Caleb Williams), struggling through the first half of Saturday’s game against. The Sooners trailed the Jayhawks 10-0 at halftime, until Williams rallied his team to 35 second-half points, as Oklahoma downed Kansas 35-23.
Williams finished as the overall QB2 on the DraftKings main slate with 27.1 points, (2.77 points/$1K).
Despite his QB2 finish, it would have been tough to get far in last week’s contest without Wake Forest’s Sam Hartman ($7,800), who exploded for 49.5 points thanks to a 458-yard, five-touchdown performance by the redshirt sophomore. Hoping for less of a sweat in Week 9, here are some players I like as potential value plays this weekend.
Max Duggan, TCU QB
Game: Kansas State (-3.5) vs. TCU - O/U 58.5
DraftKings Price: $7,500
This weekend’s game between Kansas State and TCU features two of the worst pass defenses on the slate, according to Pro Football Focus. TCU has the worst PFF coverage grade on the slate of 45.4, while Kansas State has the fifth worst at 59.0.
As a team, TCU is averaging 234.1 passing yards per game, and is tied for the 11th most passing touchdowns per game at 2.1.
Quarterback Max Duggan has had an up-and-down season from a fantasy perspective. Despite averaging 22.1 DraftKings points per game, Duggan’s fantasy production tends to come in waves.
He has three games on the season in which he went for 25 or more fantasy points, but also three games in which he scored 14.5 points or less.
Duggan’s fantasy success comes not only on play through the air, but also on the ground. He ranks seventh amongst QBs in rushing yards (315), and sixth in rushing attempts (43). He has rushed for two touchdowns on the year.
High scoring games can be ripe for fantasy production, and this weekend’s matchup already has a nice total of 58.5 points. But by the time this game wraps up, we may be looking at a game goes well over it’s 58.5 point projection.
Between TCU and Kansas State, the over is 8-6 on the season, and as previously mentioned, neither defense has been particularly good.
Duggan is the seventh highest priced QB on the slate amongst expected starters, and would need 22.5 points on the weekend to 3x a rather generous salary. Duggan’s average weekly salary on the season is $8,167.
Stephen Carr, Indiana RB
Game: Maryland (-5.5) vs. Indiana - O/U 49.5
DraftKings Price: $5,500
Saturday’s matchup between Maryland and Indiana could get gross.
Indiana has struggled offensively, but gets a matchup against a Maryland defense that has only been more exposed with every passing week since starting out the season at 4-0. The Hoosiers will also be without starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr., and may also be without backup quarterback Jack Tuttle, as both are nursing injuries, which could put more focus on the ground game.
With that being said, this pick could go awry if Indiana is down to its third quarterback, and Maryland succeeds at selling out to stop the run. But Maryland succeeding in stopping the run, even with Indiana down to its third quarterback could prove a tall task for a Terps defense that ranks dead last on the slate in PFF run defense grades (41.2).
The good news for running back Steven Carr is that in terms of fantasy production, he may get there on volume alone.
On the year, Carr has rushed 129 times for 440 yards and four touchdowns while also catching 15-of-18 passes for 80 yards and a score.
In terms of rush rate, Carr has handled 57.8% of Indiana’s rushing attempts, with no other running back seeing more than 12.2% of the carries.
Carr is only averaging 64.6 rushing yards per game, and has only eclipsed 57 rushing yards twice on the season when he rushed for 109 and 118 yards against Idaho and Western Kentucky. He enjoyed a particularly strong day against Western Kentucky when he rushed for 109 yards and two scores while forcing 12 missed tackles.
In regards to fantasy production, Carr has posted 20.8+ fantasy points in three contests this season, the most recent coming against Michigan State, in which his point output was buoyed by a receiving line of 8 receptions for 43 yards as 12.3 of his 23.6 fantasy points came by way of the receiving game.
Carr has the looks of a risky play given the quarterback situation for an offense that is only averaging 20.1 points per game. However, assuming that he sees the lion’s share of the work in this one, he could take advantage of a bad Maryland rush defense. Carr would need 16.5 points on the weekend to triple his value.
Tyquan Thornton, Baylor WR
Game: Baylor (-2.5) vs. Texas - O/U 61.5
DraftKings Price: $6,000
As a defense, the Texas Longhorns are allowing the 37th most points per game at 29.6. Over their last four games, the Longhorns have given up an average of 37.5 points per game, and are 2-2 over that span.
Texas is also scoring 41.6 points per game, which ranks as the ninth most in the nation, with Baylor closely behind them at 38.3 points per game.
Baylor wide receiver Tyquan Thornton has carved out a nice role for himself in the offense this season. He has caught 32-of-50 passes for 540 yards and five touchdowns, and is averaging 16.9 yards per reception in the process. Thornton has gone over 100 yards twice on the season, while also drawing six or more targets in five of seven games this year. He has seen double-digit targets in two games.
Now Thornton, along with quarterback Gerry Bohannon, get a chance to host the Longhorns, who have allowed 728 passing yards (242.7 per game) and seven passing touchdowns over the last three weeks, which included 339 yards and four touchdowns allowed vs. Oklahoma.
Bohannon has proven efficient through the air this season for Baylor, having completed 65.9% of his passes for 1,568 yards, 12 touchdowns and just one interception.
This game has one of the highest projected totals on the week at 61.5, and has the makings of a good old fashioned shootout between two of the highest scoring teams in the nation.
Priced at only $6,000 this weekend, Thornton looks like a great value against Texas. He ranks as the WR11 on the week in points per reception (3.6) and is the 16th most expensive receiver on the slate. His 16.7 points per game also rank as WR11 on the slate.
