Thor’s 3-round Mock Draft 4.0

By
Thor Nystrom,

By
Thor Nystrom

Published April 26, 2022 12:01 PM

PointsBet Perfect 10: $100,000 in free bets and an appearance on the Chris Simms Unbuttoned Podcast is up for grabs! Why “Perfect 10” you ask? Because that’s exactly what you’ll need to be – perfect, in selecting picks 1 through 10 for the Draft on Thursday night. Click here to learn more!

Since Mock 3.0 in late-March, we’ve had another blockbuster trade -- a draft pick swap between Philadelphia and New Orleans -- the rest of the Pro Day workouts, and a veritable buffet of delicious draft rumors. This year’s draft is easily the most unpredictable of any I’ve covered the past five years. Don’t just take my word for it:

GM to Peter King: “You can take the 20 most plugged-in guys in your business. Ask them to pick the top 10 guys … I would bet a lot of money no two guys have the same top 10. When you don’t know who’s going 1 or 2 or 3 … you’ve got a mysterious year.” https://t.co/X1MG0WXAtz
— Thor Nystrom (@thorku) April 18, 2022

The NFL Draft is theater, and movies are best when they keep you guessing until the end -- expect fireworks next weekend. Let’s try to sort out the sound from the noise. Directly below, are three rounds of picks in tables. Then we’ll jump into the analysis of all 32 teams’ respective hauls. Let’s do this!

Note: Scroll right for each prospect’s RAS composite and comp. RAS size-adjusted athletic composites provided by Kent Lee Platte. RAS scores should be read as percentiles -- ie “5.0" is 50th-percentile.

R1	Team	Player	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
1	Jacksonville	Aidan Hutchinson	EDGE	6065	268	9.88	Joey Bosa	Michigan
2	Detroit	Malik Willis	QB	6004	223		Michael Vick	Liberty
3	Houston	Travon Walker	EDGE	6050	272	9.99	Arik Armstead	Georgia
4	NY Jets	Ahmad Gardner	CB	6026	193		Richard Sherman	Cincinnati
5	NY Giants	Ikem Ekwonu	OT	6040	328	8.51	Trent Williams	NC State
6	Carolina	Matt Corral	QB	6015	215		Rich Gannon	Mississippi
7	NY Giants	Kayvon Thibodeaux	EDGE	6040	256	9.63	Jadeveon Clowney	Oregon
8	Atlanta	Jameson Williams	WR	6014	180	N/A	Jerry Jeudy	Alabama
9	Seattle	Evan Neal	OT	6074	345	N/A	Jordan Mailata	Alabama
10	NY Jets	Drake London	WR	6037	219	N/A	Mike Evans	USC
11	Washington	Garrett Wilson	WR	5116	184	7.8	Calvin Ridley	Ohio State
12	Minnesota	Kyle Hamilton	S	6041	217	9.33	Derwin James	Notre Dame
13	Houston	Jordan Davis	DL	6063	341	10	Haloti Ngata	Georgia
14	Baltimore	Jermaine Johnson II	EDGE	6045	260	#N/A	Whitney Mercilus	Florida State
15	Philadelphia	Trent McDuffie	CB	5106	193	9.49	Jaire Alexander	Washington
16	New Orleans	Kenny Pickett	QB	6033	219	9.55	Andy Dalton	Pittsburgh
17	LA Chargers	Charles Cross	OT	6046	311	7.58	Andre Dillard	Mississippi State
18	Philadelphia	George Karlaftis	EDGE	6036	263	9.21	Ryan Kerrigan	Purdue
19	New Orleans	Trevor Penning	OT	6071	333	9.95	Bigger Kyle Turley	Northern Iowa
20	Pittsburgh	Desmond Ridder	QB	6033	213	9.61	Marcus Mariota	Cincinnati
21	New England	Devin Lloyd	LB	6026	237	9.59	Darius Leonard	Utah
22	Green Bay	Derek Stingley Jr.	CB	6002	188	8.98	Xavien Howard	LSU
23	Arizona	Devonte Wyatt	DL	6027	304	9.59	Tommie Harris	Georgia
24	Dallas	Tyler Linderbaum	iOL	6021	296	8.84	Jeff Saturday	Iowa
25	Buffalo	Andrew Booth Jr.	CB	6002	194		Kyle Fuller	Clemson
26	Tennessee	Chris Olave	WR	6004	185	8.68	Terry McLaurin	Ohio State
27	Tampa Bay	Zion Johnson	iOL	6025	314	9.75	Laken Tomlinson	Boston College
28	Green Bay	Christian Watson	WR	6041	208	9.96	Javon Walker	NDSU
29	Kansas City	Kaiir Elam	CB	6014	192	8.63	Carlton Davis	Florida
30	Kansas City	Treylon Burks	WR	6017	224	5.81	David Boston	Arkansas
31	Cincinnati	Boye Mafe	EDGE	6036	257	9.92	Kwity Paye	Minnesota
32	Detroit	David Ojabo	EDGE	6040	252	9.41	Brian Burns	Michigan

R2	Team	Player	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
33	Jacksonville	Nakobe Dean	LB	5113	231		Jessie Tuggle	Georgia
34	Detroit	Daxton Hill	S	6002	191	9.06	Darnell Savage	Michigan
35	NY Jets	Arnold Ebiketie	EDGE	6026	247	8.91	Shaq Barrett	Penn State
36	NY Giants	Jalen Pitre	S	5110	195	8.47	Tyrann Mathieu	Baylor
37	Houston	Breece Hall	RB	5112	218	9.96	Matt Forte	Iowa State
38	NY Jets	Chad Muma	LB	6026	237	9.77	Logan Wilson	Wyoming
39	Chicago	Bernhard Raimann	OT	6061	307	9.87	Lane Johnson	Central Michigan
40	Seattle	Sam Howell	QB	6005	224		C.J. Beathard	North Carolina
41	Seattle	Travis Jones	DL	6043	327	9.4	A’Shawn Robinson	UConn
42	Indianapolis	Kenyon Green	iOL	6040	325	5.99	Isaiah Wynn	Texas A&M
43	Atlanta	Perrion Winfrey	DL	6035	290		Darnell Dockett	Oklahoma
44	Cleveland	Logan Hall	EDGE	6061	285	9.4	Margus Hunt	Houston
45	Baltimore	Dylan Parham	iOL	6025	313	8.8	Weston Richburg	Memphis
46	Minnesota	Cole Strange	iOL	6050	307	9.95	Joe Thuney	Chattanooga
47	Washington	Christian Harris	LB	6004	235	9.07	C.J. Mosley	Alabama
48	Chicago	George Pickens	WR	6032	200	9.37	Nico Collins	Georgia
49	New Orleans	Jahan Dotson	WR	5105	181	6.34	Tyler Lockett	Penn State
50	Kansas City	Tyler Smith	OT	6047	327	8.77	Donovan Smith	Tulsa
51	Philadelphia	Lewis Cine	S	6022	202	9.92	Xavier McKinney	Georgia
52	Pittsburgh	Nik Bonitto	EDGE	6031	248	9.37	Haason Reddick	Oklahoma
53	Green Bay	Leo Chenal	LB	6025	250	9.99	Jordyn Brooks	Wisconsin
54	New England	Kyler Gordon	CB	5114	198	9.69	Byron Jones	Washington
55	Arizona	Daniel Faalele	OT	6081	390	2.41	Mekhi Becton	Minnesota
56	Dallas	Skyy Moore	WR	5096	191	7.59	Doug Baldwin	Western Michigan
57	Buffalo	Kenneth Walker III	RB	5092	209	9.26	DeAngelo Williams	Michigan State
58	Atlanta	Abraham Lucas	OT	6063	316	9.73	Jake Fisher	Washington State
59	Green Bay	Drake Jackson	EDGE	6025	273	8.6	Shillique Calhoun	USC
60	Tampa Bay	Isaiah Spiller	RB	6003	217	5.7	Deuce McCallister	Texas A&M
61	San Francisco	Cam Taylor-Britt	CB	5105	196	8.32	Desmond King	Nebraska
62	Kansas City	Josh Paschal	EDGE	6025	270	9.7	John Franklin-Myers	Kentucky
63	Cincinnati	Jaquan Brisker	S	6013	206	9.14	Harrison Smith	Penn State
64	Denver	Trey McBride	TE	6035	245	8.2	Dallas Goedert	Colorado State

R3	Team	Player	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
65	Jacksonville	DeMarvin Leal	DL	6037	284	7.44	Chris Jones	Texas A&M
66	Detroit	Roger McCreary	CB	5113	191	5.48	Rock Ya-Sin	Auburn
67	NY Giants	Quay Walker	LB	6036	242	9.63	Anthony Walker Jr.	Georgia
68	Houston	Tariq Woolen	CB	6041	205	9.7	Ifeatu Melifonwu	UTSA
69	NY Jets	Nicholas Petit-Frere	OT	6052	316	6.26	Bobby Evans	Ohio State
70	Jacksonville	Darian Kinnard	iOL	6053	328	5.3	Deonte Brown	Kentucky
71	Chicago	Cameron Thomas	EDGE	6041	267	8.69	Carl Nassib	San Diego St.
72	Seattle	Martin Emerson	CB	6015	203	8.48	Joejuan Williams	Mississippi St.
73	Indianapolis	Carson Strong	QB	6033	230		Jared Goff	Nevada
74	Atlanta	Nick Cross	S	6001	215	9.87	Kamren Curl	Maryland
75	Denver	Kingsley Enagbare	EDGE	6040	271	6.21	Brian Orakpo	S. Carolina
76	Baltimore	Coby Bryant	CB	6013	193	5.59	Jalen Mills	Cincinnati
77	Minnesota	Greg Dulcich	TE	6040	242	8.25	Dawson Knox	UCLA
78	Cleveland	Calvin Austin III	WR	5076	170	9.08	D’Wayne Eskridge	Memphis
79	LA Chargers	Troy Andersen	LB	6034	243	10	Baron Browning	Montana State
80	Houston	Alec Pierce	WR	6031	208	9.82	Eric Decker	Cincinnati
81	NY Giants	Jalen Tolbert	WR	6015	193	8.62	Gabriel Davis	South Alabama
82	Atlanta	Channing Tindall	LB	6020	228	9.68	Daryl Washington	Georgia
83	Philadelphia	David Bell	WR	6007	209	4.03	Allen Hurns	Purdue
84	Pittsburgh	Alontae Taylor	CB	6001	199	9.06	Carlos Rogers	Tennessee
85	New England	Khalil Shakir	WR	5117	197	8.32	Amon-Ra St. Brown	Boise State
86	Las Vegas	Sean Rhyan	iOL	6046	323	8.17	Alijah Vera-Tucker	UCLA
87	Arizona	Zyon McCollum	CB	6021	199	10	Kevin King	Sam Houston St.
88	Dallas	Sam Williams	EDGE	6035	258	9.72	Pernell McPhee	Mississippi
89	Buffalo	Wan’Dale Robinson	WR	5080	178	7.36	Elijah Moore	Kentucky
90	Tennessee	Rasheed Walker	OT	6055	324	N/A	Bobby Massie	Penn State
91	Tampa Bay	Bryan Cook	S	6006	206		Jaylinn Hawkins	Cincinnati
92	Green Bay	Braxton Jones	OT	6054	307	8.44	Matt Peart	Southern Utah
93	San Francisco	Cam Jurgens	iOL	6027	304	#N/A	Richie Incognito	Nebraska
94	Kansas City	Kerby Joseph	S	6007	203		Steven Parker	Illinois
95	Cincinnati	Jamaree Salyer	iOL	6030	318	4.15	Jermaine Eluemunor	Georgia
96	Denver	Brian Asamoah	LB	6-0	226	8.9	David Long	Oklahoma
97	Detroit (comp)	Tyquan Thornton	WR	6023	183	8.56	Ted Ginn, Jr.	Baylor
98	New Orleans (comp)	Phidarian Mathis	DL	6042	310		DaQuan Jones	Alabama
99	Cleveland (comp)	Brandon Smith	LB	6034	244	9.97	Germaine Pratt	Penn State
100	Baltimore (comp)	James Cook	RB	5114	204	8.78	Nyheim Hines	Georgia
101	Philadelphia (comp)	Ed Ingram	iOL	6035	312	7.42	Jonah Jackson	LSU
102	Miami (comp)	Luke Goedeke	iOL	6050	313		Mark Glowinski	Central Michigan
103	Kansas City (comp)	Zamir White	RB	5117	217	9.82	Cam Akers	Georgia
104	LA Rams (comp)	Luke Fortner	iOL	6041	304	7.29	Ethan Pocic	Kentucky
105	San Francisco (comp)	Zachary Carter	EDGE	6042	282	8.1	Charles Omenihu	Florida

Top-50 available

Player	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
Jack Coan	QB	6032	218	7.7	Greg McElroy	Notre Dame
Bailey Zappe	QB	6004	217	5.9	Chase Daniels	Western Kentucky
Dameon Pierce	RB	5095	224	7.13	David Montgomery	Florida
Brian Robinson Jr.	RB	6015	224	6.62	Chris Carson	Alabama
Jerome Ford	RB	5104	211	6.94	Sony Michel	Cincinnati
Pierre Strong Jr.	RB	5113	207	9.34	Joseph Addai	S. Dakota St.
Tyler Allgeier	RB	5106	221	7.4	Alex Collins	BYU
Rachaad White	RB	6006	215	9.88	David Johnson	Arizona State
John Metchie III	WR	5112	189		Nate Burleson	Alabama
Justyn Ross	WR	6035	210	2.64	Jakobi Meyers	Clemson
Romeo Doubs	WR	6016	204		Quintez Cephus	Nevada
Kyle Philips	WR	5112	181	8.31	Hunter Renfrow	UCLA
Erik Ezukanma	WR	6017	209	7.02	Mack Hollins	Texas Tech
Jeremy Ruckert	TE	6054	251		Foster Moreau	Ohio State
Cade Otton	TE	6050	245		Austin Hooper	Washington
Jelani Woods	TE	6071	252	10	Jermaine Gresham	Virginia
Charlie Kolar	TE	6065	248	9.11	Tyler Higbee	Iowa State
Lecitus Smith	iOL	6033	313	6.52	Nate Davis	Virginia Tech
Zach Tom	iOL	6042	307	9.59	David Quessenberry	Wake Forest
Thayer Munford	iOL	6056	329	6.74	Colton McKivitz	Ohio State
Marquis Hayes	iOL	6047	318	6.4	Larry Warford	Oklahoma
Max Mitchell	OT	6060	307	5.54	Forrest Lamp	UL-Lafayette
Kellen Diesch	OT	6071	303	9.75	Jack Driscoll	Arizona State
Matt Waletzko	OT	6067	305	9.96	Larnel Coleman	North Dakota
Dare Rosenthal	OT	6066	290	7.67	Bruce Campbell	Kentucky
Matthew Butler	DL	6037	298	7.32	Sheldon Day	Tennessee
John Ridgeway	DL	6052	320	4.73	Harrison Phillips	Arkansas
Neil Farrell Jr.	DL	6041	339	0.85	Jonathan Hankins	LSU
Otito Ogbonnia	DL	6037	323	4.8	Carl Davis	UCLA
Jayden Peevy	DL	6053	308	4.29	Vernon Butler	Texas A&M
Haskell Garrett	DL	6021	300	4.58	Larrell Murchison	Ohio State
Myjai Sanders	EDGE	6052	247	8.72	Ben Banogu	Cincinnati
Deangelo Malone	EDGE	6032	239	9.05	Tyus Bowser	W. Kentucky
Dominique Robinson	EDGE	6051	252	9.74	Benson Mayowa	Miami (OH)
Jesse Luketa	EDGE	6027	257	5.65	Ola Adeniyi	Penn State
Micheal Clemons	EDGE	6054	265	8.22	Preston Smith	Texas A&M
Tyreke Smith	EDGE	6033	255	7.15	Shareer Miller	Ohio State
Amare Barno	EDGE	6045	247	9.17	Eli Harold	Virginia Tech
Damone Clark	LB	6030	239	9.87	Ja’Whaun Bentley	LSU
JoJo Domann	LB	6012	230	7.6	Jabril Cox	Nebraska
Darrian Beavers	LB	6036	243	9.6	K.J. Wright	Cincinnati
Terrel Bernard	LB	6007	218	8.87	Deion Jones	Baylor
Marcus Jones	CB	5080	177		Amik Robertson	Houston
Damarri Mathis	CB	5111	198	9.72	Steven Nelson	Pittsburgh
Joshua Williams	CB	6027	195	9.43	Greedy Williams	Fayetteville St.
Verone McKinley III	S	5100	192		Juju Hughes	Oregon
Sterling Weatherford	S	6040	224	8.85	Mark McLaurin	Miami (OH)
Leon O’Neal Jr.	S	6005	204	6.07	Kenny Vaccaro	Texas A&M
Matt Araiza	P	6020	201		Todd Sauerbrun	San Diego State

Pick	Cardinals	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
23	Devonte Wyatt	DL	6027	304	9.59	Tommie Harris	Georgia
55	Daniel Faalele	OT	6081	390	2.41	Mekhi Becton	Minnesota
87	Zyon McCollum	CB	6021	199	10	Kevin King	Sam Houston St.

The Cardinals address a pressing need along the defensive front with Georgia’s twitched-up, gap-shooting Wyatt, whose game evokes former Bears first-rounder Tommie Harris. The Cardinals would also love to come out of this draft with a starting offensive lineman and a starting cornerback. With Faalele available at 2.55, Arizona can’t help themselves. Arizona gets a nice sticker price on toolshed small-school sleeper Zyon McCollum at 3.87.

Pick	Falcons	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
8	Jameson Williams	WR	6014	180	N/A	Jerry Jeudy	Alabama
43	Perrion Winfrey	DL	6035	290		Darnell Dockett	Oklahoma
58	Abraham Lucas	OT	6063	316	9.73	Jake Fisher	Washington State
74	Nick Cross	S	6001	215	9.87	Kamren Curl	Maryland
82	Channing Tindall	LB	6020	228	9.68	Daryl Washington	Georgia

There’s been much smoke recently in the media about four receivers potentially going in the top-11. In this exercise, we have three, with the Falcons breaking the seal on the position with Jameson Williams at 1.8. Williams’ stock has stabilized over the past month as teams received good news on his knee from the NFL Combine’s medical process. Plus, interested parties were able, with their own two eyes, to observe how quickly Williams is recovering from his knee injury during Alabama’s pro day when Williams did calisthenics. Deferring the big need of defensive front-seven reinforcements until Day 2 would be risky, but not if the Falcons can walk away from Friday night with Perrion Winfrey and Channing Tindall. Tindall is going to be better in the NFL than he was at Georgia – the Bulldogs were so loaded on defense that they rarely blitzed him and mostly asked him to play assignment football. Tindall’s per-snap pressure rate will convince his NFL team to unleash him. Winfrey’s go-go-go disruption game is already off the leash in that regard.

Pick	Ravens	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
14	Jermaine Johnson II	EDGE	6045	260	9.23	Whitney Mercilus	Florida State
45	Dylan Parham	iOL	6025	313	8.8	Weston Richburg	Memphis
76	Coby Bryant	CB	6013	193	5.59	Jalen Mills	Cincinnati
100	James Cook	RB	5114	204	8.78	Nyheim Hines	Georgia

Draft fallers always seem to drop to Baltimore at the Ravens’ position of need. It’s happened again, with Johnson, who some project as a top-10 pick, falling to 1.14 amid a stacked edge class. Parham plugs neatly into the hole vacated by C Bradley Bozeman’s departure for Carolina. This isn’t an area the team can put on the back-burner after allowing a team-record 57 sacks last year. I love the fit of Cook on the Ravens. JK Dobbins returns to rejoin a group of grinders, but Baltimore likely feels it needs more depth at the position, and Cook’s receiving acumen will help out Lamar Jackson while ensuring Dobbins isn’t overworked in his return.

Pick	Bills	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
25	Andrew Booth Jr.	CB	6002	194		Kyle Fuller	Clemson
57	Kenneth Walker III	RB	5092	209	9.26	DeAngelo Williams	Michigan State
89	Wan’Dale Robinson	WR	5080	178	7.36	Elijah Moore	Kentucky

The Bills are the most-logical destination if a running back winds up in Round 1 – but I can’t see them spending that sort of equity on the position. This exercise plays out more advantageously, plugging a more pronounced hole at corner in Round 1 before stealing Kenneth Walker at 2.57. Walker saw a lot of stacked boxes in East Lansing – won’t have to worry about that playing with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, will he? Good luck tackling him in space, NFL.

Pick	Panthers	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
6	Matt Corral	QB	6015	215		Rich Gannon	Mississippi

Late last month, the Charlotte Observer’s Jonathan Alexander reported that the Panthers have first-round grades on three quarterbacks — Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett and Matt Corral. If you’re going to take a quarterback in the top-10, he’d better have a top-10 starter ceiling. Willis and Corral do. Pickett does not. HC Matt Rhule might throw a kink into things if he demands Pickett, who once committed to play for him at Temple (before flipping to Pitt), but at this point, Rhule is staring down the barrel of a loaded gun for his NFL coaching future – to pass on a potential difference-maker for a capped-ceiling guy is not in his best interest. He may need to be convinced of that, and perhaps that work will be done by next weekend.

Pick	Bears	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
39	Bernhard Raimann	OT	6061	307	9.87	Lane Johnson	Central Michigan
48	George Pickens	WR	6032	200	9.37	Nico Collins	Georgia
71	Cameron Thomas	EDGE	6041	267	8.69	Carl Nassib	San Diego St.

Pick-poor with a swiss-cheese roster, GM Ryan Poles is at the mercy of the board in his first draft in charge. He’d be thrilled if it fell this way. Bernhard Raimann plugs the right tackle hole immediately – and has the physical ability to be an above-average left tackle someday soon. George Pickens is a Round 2 best-case scenario for a team that desperately needs a starting “X” receiver across from Darnell Mooney following Allen Robinson’s departure. Thomas is likely to fall a little as a capped-ceiling power EDGE, but he’d allow Poles to leave Friday night with a trio of new starters. Not bad after having to wait until 2.38 to make his first pick.

Pick	Bengals	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
31	Boye Mafe	EDGE	6036	257	9.92	Kwity Paye	Minnesota
63	Jaquan Brisker	S	6013	206	9.14	Harrison Smith	Penn State
95	Jamaree Salyer	iOL	6030	318	4.15	Jermaine Eluemunor	Georgia

Before free agency, it would have been misguided to mock anything but offensive line help to the Bengals in Round 1. But following the additions of Ted Karras, La’El Collins, and Alex Cappa, the only hole left is at LG. So with their newfound freedom, Cincy shoots the moon on Mafe’s absurd upside at 1.31 and then brings in needed secondary help at 2.63 via Penn State standout S Jaquan Brisker. At 3.95, the final piece in the quest to fix Joe Burrow’s offensive line, Georgia’s Salyer. Salyer has been projected higher in some circles but I expect a small drop due to his disappointing testing.

Pick	Browns	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
44	Logan Hall	EDGE	6061	285	9.4	Margus Hunt	Houston
78	Calvin Austin III	WR	5076	170	9.08	D’Wayne Eskridge	Memphis
99	Brandon Smith	LB	6034	244	9.97	Germaine Pratt	Penn State

Coming in after an active offseason that saw QB Deshaun Watson and WR Amari Cooper arrive via trade, the Browns’ biggest need is defensive front-seven help (Chase Winovich, Jordan Elliott, and Tommy Togai are projected to start along the defensive line at the moment). Logan Hall will start immediately – the Browns will just have to decide if they want him inside, outside, or if they want to move him around the formation. The next two picks are high-upside fliers on athletic traits. Austin, who tested almost identical to Tyreek Hill (but 15 pounds lighter), pushes aside Jakeem Grant to start inside Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones as a rookie.

Pick	Cowboys	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
24	Tyler Linderbaum	iOL	6021	296	8.84	Jeff Saturday	Iowa
56	Skyy Moore	WR	5096	191	7.59	Doug Baldwin	Western Michigan
88	Sam Williams	EDGE	6035	258	9.72	Pernell McPhee	Mississippi

After losing OG Connor Williams to free agency, Dallas needs interior help. Linderbaum is coming off PFF’s highest-graded season ever for a center (also the best run-blocking season ever for a center). With Linderbaum, you stage a three-way competition between him, Tyler Biadasz, and Connor McGovern for two starting interior spots. The loser will provide the Cowboys with needed interior depth -- and it ain’t gonna be Linderbaum. Dallas fans want a promising receiving prospect out of this draft, and while they have to wait until Round 2 to get one, that’s absolutely what Skyy Moore is. It would be no surprise if he ended up being one of the five-best receivers from this class.

Pick	Broncos	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
64	Trey McBride	TE	6035	245	8.2	Dallas Goedert	Colorado State
75	Kingsley Enagbare	EDGE	6040	271	6.21	Brian Orakpo	S. Carolina
96	Brian Asamoah	LB	6-0	226	8.9	David Long	Oklahoma

The Broncos are sitting pretty after the acquisitions of Russell Wilson and Billy Turner. They won’t pick until Round 3 because of the Wilson trade, but evaluators consider Rounds 3-5 to be a power alley in this deep class, and the Broncos have a trio of Round 3 picks to play with to plug their remaining holes. Arguably the biggest heading into the draft is tight end after the organization waved goodbye to TE Noah Fant in the Wilson trade. It would be a win to come out of the draft with the class’s best prospect at that position. McBride will be a target-hound favorite of Wilson’s in short order. With the other two picks, Denver fortifies a thin defensive front-seven.

Pick	Lions	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
2	Malik Willis	QB	6004	223		Michael Vick	Liberty
32	David Ojabo	EDGE	6040	252	9.41	Brian Burns	Michigan
34	Daxton Hill	S	6002	191	9.06	Darnell Savage	Michigan
66	Roger McCreary	CB	5113	191	5.48	Rock Ya-Sin	Auburn
97	Tyquan Thornton	WR	6023	183	8.56	Ted Ginn, Jr.	Baylor

Say this for the Lions: They don’t have any leakers in that front office. Detroit has been eerily silent about its intentions at 1.2 even to its most plugged-in reporters. Many of my contemporaries in the media assume they’ll play it safe with one of the class’s top-three EDGE prospects. And that’s certainly possible. But I know Detroit’s offensive coaching staff loves Willis, whom they coached at the Senior Bowl, and I’m sticking with my hunch that they roll the dice on Willis’ all-world skillset next Thursday night. Detroit’s extreme reticence to have their prospect-of-choice outed – how careful they’re being in media interactions – reminds me of San Francisco last process. In the 49ers’ case, a false-flag target was fed to the media to keep the NFL off the Trey Lance scent. In Detroit’s case, if you love Willis, your fear, in this wide-open draft year, is getting hopped by a team trading up with Jacksonville – the Jaguars would no doubt love to pick up a war chest of assets while remaining in the top-10. Just a gut feeling – nobody has inside information on this outside of the closest ring of Brad Holmes’ circle – but I’m sticking with Willis here unless we get a definitive pre-draft report pointing in another direction.

Pick	Packers	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
22	Derek Stingley Jr.	CB	6002	188	8.98	Xavien Howard	LSU
28	Christian Watson	WR	6041	208	9.96	Javon Walker	NDSU
53	Leo Chenal	LB	6025	250	9.99	Jordyn Brooks	Wisconsin
59	Drake Jackson	EDGE	6025	273	8.6	Shillique Calhoun	USC
92	Braxton Jones	OT	6054	307	8.44	Matt Peart	Southern Utah

Everybody knows the Packers’ biggest need is receiver, but flush with draft-equity riches via the Davante Adams trade, Green Bay can afford not to get penned in. In this scenario, Stingley falls to them, so they roll the dice on his freshman tape and athletic traits. Receiver gets put off to 1.28, where I have the Packers taking Watson. Some teams don’t have a first-round grade on Watson, but the Packers strike me as a team that might. Watson is a long outside pop-the-top speedster who blocks his butt off – if nothing else, he’s Green Bay’s type. Watson would immediately step into the starting lineup across from Allen Lazard, with Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers taking care of the slot. It’s a start to rebuilding a group that at this moment is the NFL’s worst. Chenal makes all sorts of sense as a buy-local solution to the linebacker need. And if the first-three picks go like this, expect Green Bay to audible to trench depth in the middle rounds, as they’ve begun to do here. Southern Utah’s Jones hits Green Bay’s thresholds and will interest them as a developmental flier.

Pick	Texans	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
3	Travon Walker	EDGE	6050	272	9.99	Arik Armstead	Georgia
13	Jordan Davis	DL	6063	341	10	Haloti Ngata	Georgia
37	Breece Hall	RB	5112	218	9.96	Matt Forte	Iowa State
68	Tariq Woolen	CB	6041	205	9.7	Ifeatu Melifonwu	UTSA
80	Alec Pierce	WR	6031	208	9.82	Eric Decker	Cincinnati

The Texans have 11 picks and simply must ace this draft process. Walker has been a rumored usurper of Aidan Hutchinson for the 1.1 slot, but you’d expect cooler heads to ultimately prevail. This is a far more palpable slot for Walker, and he’s a great fit for Lovie Smith’s defense at a position of desperate need. And at 1.13, how about the idea of reuniting Walker with his college pal Davis? This masterstroke would at once turn the defensive line from a weakness into a strength. The Texans played 2021 sixth-rounder DT Roy Lopez on almost half its defensive snaps last year, with second-round bust Ross Blacklock playing 39%. Both are NFL backups/rotation pieces. I love the fit of Hall on the Texans. A versatile three-down hammer with receiving chops, Hall will make Davis Mills’ life a lot easier next fall.

Pick	Colts	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
42	Kenyon Green	iOL	6040	325	5.99	Isaiah Wynn	Texas A&M
73	Carson Strong	QB	6033	230		Jared Goff	Nevada

The Colts have jumbo holes at left tackle and right guard. The Colts re-signed OT Matt Pryor to a one-year, $5.5 million deal, and GM Chris Ballard has been resolute that he’ll start at LT. In this scenario, Texas A&M OG Kenyon Green falls into Indianapolis’ lap at 2.42, taking care of the RG spot. Green had been projected as a late first-rounder earlier in the process but may slip into the first half of Round 2 after mediocre athletic testing. Carson Strong fits what the team looks for in quarterbacks. He has a big-league arm and an NFL-caliber pocket game. He could develop into a long-term starting option after learning behind Matt Ryan for a year or two.

Pick	Jaguars	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
1	Aidan Hutchinson	EDGE	6065	268	9.88	Joey Bosa	Michigan
33	Nakobe Dean	LB	5113	231		Jessie Tuggle	Georgia
65	DeMarvin Leal	DL	6037	284	7.44	Chris Jones	Texas A&M
70	Darian Kinnard	iOL	6053	328	5.3	Deonte Brown	Kentucky

The Travon Walker buzz has been building, but that could just be Jacksonville having fun with its media sources. Scouting football players requires accumulating as much empirical data as possible, baking in the eye test, and making a few situational assumptions here and there. To conclude that Walker is a better prospect than Hutchinson requires logical leaps – not situational assumptions, but logical leaps – in my opinion. At the top of R2, Jacksonville picks off Georgia hitman LB Nakobe Dean, who may fall out of Round 1 due to size concerns. Adding Leal to those guys at 3.65 puts a jolt into a previously-lifeless front-seven.

Pick	Chiefs	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
29	Kaiir Elam	CB	6014	192	8.63	Carlton Davis	Florida
30	Treylon Burks	WR	6017	224	5.81	David Boston	Arkansas
50	Tyler Smith	OT	6047	327	8.77	Donovan Smith	Tulsa
62	Josh Paschal	EDGE	6025	270	9.7	John Franklin-Myers	Kentucky
94	Kerby Joseph	S	6007	203		Steven Parker	Illinois
103	Zamir White	RB	5117	217	9.82	Cam Akers	Georgia

Kansas City’s biggest need is a starting “X” receiver for the post-Tyreek Hill world they’re now living in. An immediate starter at corner would be nice in this division, as well, and so would bringing in RT competition for Lucas Niang. Elam checks the box of immediate-contributor at corner, and Burks, who can likely be had for a discount on draft night because of mediocre pre-draft testing, is “X” juice worth the squeeze at 1.30. Kansas City would do backflips if Smith fell to 2.50 (as they were doing last year at 2.63 with C Creed Humphrey and 6.226 with OG Trey Smith). Tyler Smith would be favored to displace Niang from Day 1. A pick like Paschal is needed along the EDGE after losing Melvin Ingram and Alex Okafor.

Pick	Raiders	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
86	Sean Rhyan	iOL	6046	323	8.17	Alijah Vera-Tucker	UCLA

The pick-poor Raiders need offensive line help badly. Rhyan fits the mold of what they’ve looked for in the trenches over the last decade. He’s likely a guard at the next level, but you can’t put it past him to ultimately become a quality starting RT. Either way, on this roster, he’s headed inside early. The Raiders can’t feel good about current starting OG duo Denzelle Good and Jermaine Eluemunor.

Pick	Chargers	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
17	Charles Cross	OT	6046	311	7.58	Andre Dillard	Mississippi State
79	Troy Andersen	LB	6034	243	10	Baron Browning	Montana State

Cross and the Chargers are a perfect marriage. The Chargers need a starting right tackle, and Cross would become that from Day 1. He arrives from Mike Leach’s wonky Air Raid system, which gets the ball out as fast as any team in the nation while asking linemen to take much bigger splits than is typical. It’s a trickier transition to the next level than from a traditional offense. Giving Cross time to learn at RT benefits him short-term while giving his organization a developmental runway to ascertain if he’s a viable long-term LT option.

Pick	Rams	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
104	Luke Fortner	iOL	6041	304	7.29	Ethan Pocic	Kentucky

When the Rams finally get on the clock for the first time at 3.104, I’d expect them to either take a guard as a potential Austin Corbett replacement at RG, an EDGE to help out a group that lost Von Miller, or a corner to address Darious Williams’ departure. Fortner is the best prospect left at those groups, and he’s got a good chance to start immediately for the defending champs.

Pick	Dolphins	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
102	Luke Goedeke	iOL	6050	313		Mark Glowinski	Central Michigan

The Dolphins will also be sniffing around front-seven help when they start picking and potentially a starting nickel CB candidate, but even after signing OG Connor Williams, Miami still needs offensive line depth. Goedeke is a very promising developmental prospect who could be used as a swing-backup at a minimum of three positions early on.

Pick	Vikings	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
12	Kyle Hamilton	S	6041	217	9.33	Derwin James	Notre Dame
46	Cole Strange	iOL	6050	307	9.95	Joe Thuney	Chattanooga
77	Greg Dulcich	TE	6040	242	8.25	Dawson Knox	UCLA

Seems like every mock you open these days has the Vikings using 1.12 to reunite LSU CB Derek Stingley Jr. with DB coach Daronte Jones, who returned to Minnesota after being LSU’s DC/DB coach last season. Jones can confirm Stingley’s physical talent, of course, just as he can confirm that Stingley checked out on his team the past two seasons. Would analytics-leaning Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, in his very first draft in charge, use a top-12 pick on a guy data doesn’t back? Stingley has a quasi-unprecedented Round 1 CB profile, coming off a Lisfranc injury with only one good collegiate season on his resume, multiple years in his rearview mirror by this point. Hamilton, previously a top-5 overall prospect who appears to be dropping after running a 4.59, would be the superior secondary option for the Purple both short- and long-term. And how cool would it be for Hamilton to start his career next to former Notre Dame star S Harrison Smith?

Harry and the Hamilton pic.twitter.com/0UJ5AR0AkI
— Thor Nystrom (@thorku) March 26, 2022

Pick	Patriots	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
21	Devin Lloyd	LB	6026	237	9.59	Darius Leonard	Utah
54	Kyler Gordon	CB	5114	198	9.69	Byron Jones	Washington
85	Khalil Shakir	WR	5117	197	8.32	Amon-Ra St. Brown	Boise State

Lloyd may well go higher, but if he’s available here, he makes all kinds of sense for the linebacker-needy Patriots, who currently project to start Ja’Whaun Bentley and Mack Wilson in the second level. Gordon and Shakir are both highly-skilled players who figure to drop lower than they should because of their respective frames.

Pick	Saints	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
16	Kenny Pickett	QB	6033	219	9.55	Andy Dalton	Pittsburgh
19	Trevor Penning	OT	6071	333	9.95	Bigger Kyle Turley	Northern Iowa
49	Jahan Dotson	WR	5105	181	6.34	Tyler Lockett	Penn State
98	Phidarian Mathis	DL	6042	310		DaQuan Jones	Alabama

The Saints’ recent trade for one of the Eagles’ first-round picks seems to set the stage for the drafting of a quarterback. At this moment, there seems to be a better than even-money chance that one of the top-three quarterbacks on most boards – Willis, Corral and Pickett – will be available at 1.16. In this scenario, that’s Pickett, and that’s who New Orleans goes with. At 1.19, one of the most fun prospect-team matches in the draft. My friend Mike Farrell comped Trevor Penning to a bigger Kyle Turley on a recent podcast we did, and now I can’t unsee the comp, nor the fit. The Saints then capitalize on good value by grabbing Jahan Dotson to help flesh out the receiver room.

Is the @NFL Draft too long? I say NO‼️

Thor Nystrom (@thorku) and I break down the ENTIRE draft, including the LOADED Edge class -

Listen now!

Apple: https://t.co/JPHMTlwvx9

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— Mike Farrell (@mfarrellsports) April 15, 2022

Pick	Giants	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
5	Ikem Ekwonu	OT	6040	328	8.51	Trent Williams	NC State
7	Kayvon Thibodeaux	EDGE	6040	256	9.63	Jadeveon Clowney	Oregon
36	Jalen Pitre	S	5110	195	8.47	Tyrann Mathieu	Baylor
67	Quay Walker	LB	6036	242	9.63	Anthony Walker Jr.	Georgia
81	Jalen Tolbert	WR	6015	193	8.62	Gabriel Davis	South Alabama

For a team in desperate need of an offensive tackle and a starting EDGE defender, the Giants picked the right draft to have two top-seven picks. New York’s abysmal interior offensive line ranked dead-last in PFF’s pass-blocking metrics last season, and the G-Men are reportedly infatuated with Ekwonu. Ickey could begin his career as either NYG’s LG or RT – bring him to camp, try him at both, and you’ll have the luxury of removing your choice of Max Garcia or Matt Peart from the starting lineup. Thibodeaux would be an incredible value at 1.7. New York’s pass-rush won’t be anemic anymore once Thibs starts lining up across from Azeez Ojulari.

Pick	Jets	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
4	Ahmad Gardner	CB	6026	193		Richard Sherman	Cincinnati
10	Drake London	WR	6037	219		Mike Evans	USC
35	Arnold Ebiketie	EDGE	6026	247	8.91	Shaq Barrett	Penn State
38	Chad Muma	LB	6026	237	9.77	Logan Wilson	Wyoming
69	Nicholas Petit-Frere	OT	6052	316	6.26	Bobby Evans	Ohio State

The Jets are another organization doing a good job of keeping teams off the scent of their intentions. Jets beat reporter Connor Hughes previously tweeted that the Jets wouldn’t take a corner at 1.4 or 1.10 – an interesting report given the team’s cornerback need – but Daniel Jeremiah, as plugged-in with the Jets as any national draft reporter, had CB Sauce Gardner going 1.4 to the Jets in his last mock. I side with Jeremiah on this debate for now. The Jets have been all-over this class’s receivers and are expected to use one of their top-10 picks on a wideout after failing to acquire D.K. Metcalf. With Drake London at 1.10, the Jets draft a prospect with a similar ceiling that’ll be much cheaper over the next five years. If things fell this way for the Jets early, there’s a chance they’d use both high-R2 picks on the defensive front-seven as I have here. New York has been connected to both Ebiketie and Muma in the pre-draft process.

Pick	Eagles	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
15	Trent McDuffie	CB	5106	193	9.49	Jaire Alexander	Washington
18	George Karlaftis	EDGE	6036	263	9.21	Ryan Kerrigan	Purdue
51	Lewis Cine	S	6022	202	9.92	Xavier McKinney	Georgia
83	David Bell	WR	6007	209	4.03	Allen Hurns	Purdue
101	Ed Ingram	iOL	6035	312	7.42	Jonah Jackson	LSU

The Eagles will take a receiver with one of their five picks on Day 1 and 2. In this exercise, with three receivers going above their first selection at 1.15, Philly focuses on sure-thing defenders early before stopping David Bell’s free-fall in Round 3. Bell and Karlaftis – one of three immediate starters on defense the Eagles took in the top-51 of this mock – could share a moving truck. Bell’s presence would push Jalen Reagor back to the slot where he belongs, in a rotation with Quez Watkins.

Pick	Steelers	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
20	Desmond Ridder	QB	6033	213	9.61	Marcus Mariota	Cincinnati
52	Nik Bonitto	EDGE	6031	248	9.37	Haason Reddick	Oklahoma
84	Alontae Taylor	CB	6001	199	9.06	Carlos Rogers	Tennessee

Pittsburgh’s worst-case scenario. The Steelers – who have spoken to all the top quarterback prospects in this class while repeatedly and overtly showing an affinity for Malik Willis that I reported on at the Senior Bowl – would be shut out from the class’ top-three QB options in this scenario. I do not project trades in my mocks, so Pittsburgh, stranded at 1.20, audibles to Desmond Ridder. Ridder has gotten enough Round 1 steam over the past month that this wouldn’t be the reach it might have appeared to be during the season. With how bad the Steelers’ quarterback situation is at the moment, they may feel compelled to force the issue if they’re unable to move up. Bonitto in Round 2 is more in line with the traditional Steelers pick, a hyper-active, quarterback-killing 3-4 OLB.

Pick	49ers	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
61	Cam Taylor-Britt	CB	5105	196	8.32	Desmond King	Nebraska
93	Cam Jurgens	iOL	6027	304	9.94	Richie Incognito	Nebraska
105	Zachary Carter	EDGE	6042	282	8.1	Charles Omenihu	Florida

The 49ers’ biggest need is on the interior offensive line. Projected starting LG Colton McKivitz should be a backup on a Super Bowl contender, and the 49ers only have a one-year solution for center after signing 35-year-old Alex Mack to a one-year deal. Mack ranked middle-of-the-pack No. 16 among qualifying NFL centers in PFF grade last year and is depreciating by the minute. Jurgens’ cleaner projection is center, but he could push McKivitz for his job early before taking over the center gig from Mack in 2023. The 49ers could use another starting-caliber player in the secondary, be it at corner or safety, for 2022 depth purposes if nothing else. Taylor-Britt, a riser during the process like Jurgens, fits the bill.

Pick	Seahawks	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
9	Evan Neal	OT	6074	345	N/A	Jordan Mailata	Alabama
40	Sam Howell	QB	6005	224		C.J. Beathard	North Carolina
41	Travis Jones	DL	6043	327	9.4	A’Shawn Robinson	UConn
72	Martin Emerson	CB	6015	203	8.48	Joejuan Williams	Mississippi St.

Could Evan Neal, the presumed pre-Combine No. 1 overall pick, fall all the way to No. 9? There’s a better chance than you might think, but it requires three things, all of which happened in this exercise: 1.) Texans take an EDGE 1.3 instead of an OT, 2.) Two quarterbacks go in the top-8, 3.) Ekwonu is the first OT selected. His fall would be a cause for celebration in Seattle, which has needed offensive line help for years. Howell would be a post-hype sleeper stab. I could see Howell reminding Pete Carroll of some of the quarterbacks he used to have at USC. Seattle only has Drew Lock and Geno Smith in the QB room at the moment.

Pick	Bucs	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
27	Zion Johnson	iOL	6025	314	9.75	Laken Tomlinson	Boston College
60	Isaiah Spiller	RB	6003	217	5.7	Deuce McCallister	Texas A&M
91	Bryan Cook	S	6006	206		Jaylinn Hawkins	Cincinnati

With Tom Brady returning, we’ve got at least one more YOLO year of Bucs transactions. They’re drafting for today, not tomorrow. What does today’s roster need more than anything? One more starting guard. The Bucs lost Alex Cappa to free agency and Ali Marpet to retirement. They plugged one of the holes by trading for Shaq Mason. Zion Johnson, the best guard in the class, plugs the other. The Bucs re-signed RB Leonard Fournette. He’s a solidly below-average starter, and there’s little behind him (one-dimensional, aging Gio Bernard, and draft bust Ke’Shawn Vaughn). A&M’s Spiller will fall a little due to disappointing testing, perhaps setting Tampa Bay up for a nice buy-low situation on a guy that profiles as a three-down NFL starter.

Pick	Titans	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
26	Chris Olave	WR	6004	185	8.68	Terry McLaurin	Ohio State
90	Rasheed Walker	OT	6055	324	N/A	Bobby Massie	Penn State

I like Olave more than this slot indicates, but the NFL appears to be a tad lower on him, potentially opening up the possibility for a contender like the Titans to steal him in the late first. Tennessee traded for Robert Woods after waving goodbye to Julio Jones. But even with a solid outside duo in Woods and A.J. Brown, the Titans could still use a reliable slot who can steal yards when trigger-happy linebackers vacate their stations on a Derrick Henry play-action fake. Walker is a long-term play who will provide Year 1 depth, needed after the Titans lost OG Rodger Saffold and David Quessenberry over the offseason.

Pick	Commanders	Pos	Ht	Wt	RAS	Comp	School
11	Garrett Wilson	WR	5116	184	7.8	Calvin Ridley	Ohio State
47	Christian Harris	LB	6004	235	9.07	C.J. Mosley	Alabama

The Commanders have been so heavily linked to receivers at 1.11 that at this point it would be a surprise if they went any other direction. Washington badly needs a legitimate starter opposite Terry McLaurin, especially given Curtis Samuel’s inconsistencies in the slot. In this exercise, with Jameson Williams and Drake London going ahead of them, Washington grabs Garrett Wilson, who some consider WR1 in this class. With a McLaurin-Wilson-Samuel starting troika, Washington can get a fair referendum on new starting QB Carson Wentz. The Commanders’ next-biggest hole in the starting lineup currently is at inside linebacker. Harris would be an awesome fit.

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