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1. Spencer Rattler | Oklahoma | 6’1/210
Rattler signed with Oklahoma as a ballyhooed five-star recruit, the top quarterback in the 2019 class. He had just become the first quarterback in Arizona high school history to throw for more than 11,000 career yards. Rattler followed that up by winning Elite 11 MVP honors.
Rattler redshirted behind Jalen Hurts in Year 1. Hurts, the first Lincoln Riley starting quarterback not to go 1.1 overall, went on to be selected 2.53 by the Eagles. Hurts, by way of Alabama, followed Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, who had transferred in themselves.
There was a good amount of interest in Rattler heading into 2020, based on the fact alone that he was the first high-school quarterback recruit Riley signed and started. Early-on last season, Riley may have questioned his own logic in not bringing in a veteran transfer to compete with Rattler. Oklahoma started 1-2. The win was against an FCS team.
In Game 4 against Texas, the Sooners benched Rattler for Tanner Mordecai prior to halftime following two brutal Rattler turnovers. OU had been upset by Kansas State in the second game despite Rattler’s 387 passing yards and four TD, mostly due to Rattler’s three interceptions, two of which were verifiable back-breakers. [[ad:athena]]
Next time out, the Sooners got upset again, 37-30 at Iowa State. Rattler threw for 300 yards and two TD. But his one interception, in the end zone on Oklahoma’s final drive, sealed the Sooners’ fate. Rattler locked onto Charleston Rambo and simply failed to see a lurking safety. Another rookie mistake.
Rattler’s two first-half turnovers -- an interception and a fumble -- in the Red River Rivalry, along with the benching that followed, became a turning point of sorts. Each was also representative of Rattler’s worst traits on tape. So let’s get those out of the way first and then get into the good stuff.
The interception came on the last play of the first quarter with OU driving towards midfield, leading 10-0 (4:00 mark in video below). Empty backfield. One receiver up top, four to the bottom of your screen. This is where it gets interesting. Texas elects to keep six defenders in the box, and a seventh, a nickel defender, just outside it. On the nickel’s side of the field, the bottom half of the screen, the Longhorns have left only three defenders to defend four OU receivers.
This is an easy pre-snap read for Rattler, a simple math equation. Flick the ball to one of the four, the other three are his envoy, and away we go. Free yards, courtesy of Texas. On this specific play, it may have even ended in a touchdown. The nickel, who was lined up so close to the box, ends up blitzing. Texas now has only two defensive backs on the side of the field where OU has four receivers. This is the stuff dreams are made of in the spread-passing game.
Theoretically. Rattler never looks left. Not once. He has no idea the Sooners have a double-up numbers advantage on that side of the field. Rattler locks onto the single receiver at the top of the screen, feels the blitz coming (the nickel defender wasn’t picked up by OU’s minimum-protection), and fires.
Unfortunately, Rattler has also missed that Texas’ edge rusher on the right side -- the weak side of the field, opposite the nickel -- has dropped into coverage to replace the blitzing nickel. Made-to-order interception. This was a catastrophically bad read, giving away free yards to force a ball into coverage to a receiver you’ve locked onto, the only option on his side of the field.
The fumble came off a strange play-call (cue to 4:42 mark in video above). Rattler makes matters worse with a string of bad decisions. With no receivers on the line of scrimmage to the right, No. 22, who will end up at the top of your screen, is not eligible to catch a pass downfield -- he can only block or catch it behind the line (which is why he immediately retreats for that potential possibility).
The RB in the backfield stays back to block -- so Rattler has the three WR on the left headed downfield to work with, or he has the option to throw it backwards to 22, potentially for a double-pass trick-play. But Rattler takes too long on a play that requires a quick decision, peaking to his left, then taking a full gander to his right to survey his downfield options.
But Texas has all three downfield options covered. So Rattler pivots fully to his left, ready to throw a quick heater backwards to 22. But because he’s waited so long, stretching the weird play design multiple beats beyond its capacity to support, Texas’ safety, even on the trips-side of the field, has figured out what’s going on. He’s closing downhill on 22.
Rattler double-clutches the ball, realizing that option, too, is not an option. As he does, he steps flush into a loop by the Texas defensive front that has crossed-up OU’s line. Rattler, mentally glitching and not taking care of the ball, gift-wraps himself into the hands of 6’4/340 Texas DT T’Vondre Sweat. The ball pops into the air and is caught by Texas’ Juwann Mitchell (scored as a fumble).
Rattler made several mistakes on this play. Firstly, he mistook the coverage, seemingly believing he had a zone look that would ultimately free one of his three receivers deep. When his mistake was revealed to him, he failed to expediently unload the ball backwards to his outlet receiver. He compounded both mistakes by stepping up, into the teeth of danger, when he already knew his options downfield had expired.
So Lincoln Riley yanked him. But Riley sent Rattler back onto the field in the second half. The youngster went 15-for-22 for 135 yards, two TD and zero turnovers the rest of the way in a wild 53-45 4OT victory. OU evened its record to 2-2 (instead of falling to 1-3).
The Sooners didn’t lose again, finishing 9-2. They outscored their last seven opponents 307-119, and lit up Florida in the bowl game. Rattler posted a 7/5 TD/INT rate in 10 consecutive quarters -- the games against Kansas State and Iowa State, and the first half of the Texas game. The rest of the season, he had a 22/2 TD/INT rate. Rattler finished the season as PFF’s No. 4 graded quarterback in the nation.
Because of his stature and his helmet and his prerogative to win in the pocket, I assume Baker Mayfield comps are coming. I don’t see that. Mayfield didn’t have near the elasticity in his joints that Rattler does. If Kyler Murray’s legs were arms, they’d be Rattler’s. And Rattler has Murray’s same ability to flip his hips instantly for a throw.
Marvin Mims (Oklahoma WR 17) wins with a solid double move but Spencer Rattler (Oklahoma QB 7) puts this one on the money. It's stuff like this that intrigues me so much about Rattler. Starts going left, flips his hips and throws a beautiful pass with ease. pic.twitter.com/sBInPRn8JJ
— Russell Brown (@RussNFLDraft) August 8, 2021
I love Rattler’s bounce in the pocket. It isn’t just the shuffling, the subtle manipulations. He does that thing Kyler and Baker did where he runs towards opening in the lines of scrimmage to pull up linebackers and get better angles on intermediate mesh throws, to use one example. Rattler’s arms and legs are not separate weapons. He uses the threat of one to create space for the other.
Tight window throws littered throughout tape. Drops it in a bucket deep. Saw him drive a ball into a window falling backwards as a blitzer had his hands on him. There’s a video of him online making throws 30 yards downfield into trash cans blindfolded. Stupid stuff. Twitchy sniper rifle of a right arm. The only two quarterbacks in the nation who had a higher adjusted completion percentage than Rattler last year were Zach Wilson and Mac Jones.
Rattler is a natural in the pocket. His mechanics can come-and-go, and he doesn’t always mind his footwork, but Rattler naturally senses the flow of blockers and rushers around him, seamlessly moving around the pocket, wandering outside the confines of it, almost in a dream-like state, having zoned in on a receiver who has broken off his route, ready to uncork the ball downfield.
Rattler evokes Kyler’s shake in the pocket and Baker’s resourcefulness out of structure. He has good field vision and off-platform accuracy to all sectors to keep all possibilities open until the last possible second. Last season Rattler ranked No. 7 on PFF passing grade on throws 3-plus seconds after the snap and No. 7 on throws 10-plus yards downfield.
Rattler’s 69.7% accuracy rate out of structure led the nation. PFF charted Rattler with a 92.1 passing grade outside the pocket last year -- that was nearly six points higher than any other quarterback, and the highest PFF had charted by any quarterback since 2016.
All this despite Oklahoma’s normally awesome receiving corps being down last season. Rattler’s teammates dropped seven of his big-time throws, the most any quarterback has suffered since 2014. Rattler led the nation in drops on catchable balls, the Sooners dropped the most touchdown passes in all of college football, and Rattler’s drop rate of 21.6% led all quarterbacks on my preseason top-10 2022 QB list.
A Spencer Rattler bomb and back-shoulder redzone throw on the same drive that will just go down in the books as incompletions. pic.twitter.com/hPWjhHo0ku
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) August 11, 2021
TE Austin Stogner, WR Charleston Rambo and WR Theo Wease had four drops apiece. Rambo has moved on to the Miami Hurricanes. Mike Woods was imported from Arkansas to replace him. With freshman phenom Mario Williams, a speedster, on campus, and Marvin Mims entrenched in the WR1 usage role out of the slot, Wease is in danger of being phased out if he doesn’t clean up the dropsies. Either way, the receiving corps is going to be better in 2021.
Rattler is an elusive runner that can make linebackers miss, a good athlete, but not a great one. He’s comfortable in RPO and read-option game, but a sampling of his read-option work showed inconsistent decisions -- keeping the ball when he should have handed it off.
Fortunately, he’s a much better decision-maker as a thrower. What I might like best about Spencer Rattler is there are a lot of artistic elements to his decision-making process. He sees what’s about to happen. From the beginning of his redshirt freshman season, Rattler was comfortable directing traffic on scramble drills by pointing receivers into open areas.
Rattler is a courageous kid -- put the video in slow motion and you’ll notice he keeps his shoulders squared and his feet planted until the second he gets blasted. He may play the game with the swagger of a video gamer, but he’s no prima donna on the field. Rattler finished No. 1 in the nation in PFF throwing grade under pressure last year -- above all five 2021 first-round quarterbacks.
Because of Rattler’s penchant for freelancing, he tends to hold onto the ball longer than other quarterbacks and can scramble his way into danger. PFF’s Anthony Treash drew an interesting parallel between his style and what we saw at Texas Tech from Pat Mahomes.
Rattler was personally responsible for 31 pressures last year. Mahomes averaged 34.0 in 2015-2016. The difference, Treash noted, was Mahomes was better at evading sacks, with a career mark roughly half that of Rattler’s 21% sack conversion rate on pressures in 2020.
Rattler was one of the best out-of-structure quarterbacks we’ve seen of the past decade in 2020. But according to PFF, his 1.8% turnover-worthy play rate outside of the pocket nearly doubled inside the pocket (3.4%). There were a few instances on tape of Rattler getting impatient and dead-arming the ball because he was a beat ahead of his bandmates. Malik Willis is another top-3 quarterback in this class who is working on pacing. This is an experiential thing -- both were first-time starters last year. I expect the pocket accuracy of both to improve in 2021.
Rattler is a natural creator. The next step in his evolution will be learning to simply take what the defense is giving him for free if it’s there, and working on pacing within structure. If he does, his out-of-structure game, already electric, is going to be all the more deadly.
Rattler’s your leader in the clubhouse to go 1.1 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft.
2022 NFL Draft preseason QB rankings
25. Tanner Morgan | Minnesota | 6’2/215
24. Jack Coan | Notre Dame | 6'3/225
23. Anthony Russo | Michigan State | 6'3/245
22. Dorian Thompson-Robinson | UCLA | 6'1/197
21. Graham Mertz | Wisconsin | 6'3/215
20. Myles Brennan | LSU | 6'3/221
19. Dustin Crum | Kent State | 6'1/210
18. Kenny Pickett | Pittsburgh | 6'3/219
17. Grayson McCall | Coastal Carolina | 6’3/200
16. D’Eriq King | Miami | 5’11/185
15. Emory Jones | Florida | 6’2/210
14. Dillon Gabriel | UCF | 6’0/186
13. Michael Penix Jr. | Indiana | 6’3/218
12. Jayden Daniels | Arizona State | 6’3/185
11. Brock Purdy | Iowa State | 6’1/212
10. Phil Jurkovec | Boston College | 6’5/226 | Scouting report
9. Desmond Ridder | Cincinnati | 6’4/215 | Scouting report
8. JT Daniels | Georgia | 6’3/210 | Scouting report
7. Tyler Shough | Texas Tech | 6’5/221 | Scouting report
6. Kedon Slovis | USC | 6’3/216 | Scouting report
5. Matt Corral | Ole Miss | 6’1/205 | Scouting report
4. Carson Strong | Nevada | 6’4/215 | Scouting report
3. Malik Willis | Liberty | 6’1/220 | Scouting report
2. Sam Howell | UNC | 6’1/225 | Scouting report
1. Spencer Rattler | Oklahoma | 6’1/210
