Now that we’ve had time to absorb athletic testing at the NFL Scouting Combine we have a pretty good idea of players’ draft profiles. However, we are still missing landing spots and draft capital, two important pieces of the dynasty puzzle.
Here is a list of teams with a valuable skill position role available or are likely to take a player at that position. The level of need obviously varies from team to team. For example, both the Jaguars and Steelers are likely to take a wideout, but a top wideout selection by the Jags would probably leave that player as their No. 1 pass-catcher from the start. For a more in-depth look at each team’s needs be sure to check out Josh Norris and Evan Silva’s team needs series.
Note: Not every team needs or will draft a skill position player
Arizona Cardinals: TE
Baltimore Ravens: WR
Buffalo Bills: TE, WR
Carolina Panthers: WR
Chicago Bears: RB
Cincinnati Bengals: QB
Denver Broncos: QB
Detroit Lions: TE, WR,
Green Bay Packers: WR
Houston Texans: RB
Indianapolis Colts: WR
Jacksonville Jaguars: WR, TE, QB
Kansas City Chiefs: WR, RB
L.A. Chargers: QB
Miami Dolphins: QB, WR, RB
New England Patriots: TE, WR
New York Giants: QB, WR
Oakland Raiders: QB, WR, TE
Philadelphia Eagles: RB
Pittsburgh Steelers: WR
San Francisco: WR
Seattle Seahawks: WR
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: RB
Tennessee Titans: WR
Washington: QB, WR, TE
It isn’t wise to be a draft capital or landing spot zombie and choose one player over another just because they were selected higher, but it should be factored in as another variable. Truth be told, a 1st round selection will have more time to develop and be given more opportunities to succeed than a fourth-round pick. In that sense draft capital is important, but nitpicking between selection Nos. 110 and 114 is a waste of time.
This class in particular could be more heavily impacted by landing spot than in recent memory. There’s no stud sure-fire pick like Saquon Barkley at 1.01, and other’s ranks may understandably differ than mine. Prior to the draft, there’s a legitimate case for multiple players to be the 1.01. Hopefully, the draft will help clear this up.
These rankings assume a ½ point per reception league with otherwise standard roster settings. Age of players is in parentheses next to their name and is current as of April 7th.
1. N’Keal Harry (21) – Arizona State (WR 1)
Profile: Harry (6’2/228) is an all-around wideout with a knack for bringing in contested catches, recording the second-most among draft-eligible wideouts in 2018 (Pro Football Focus). He ended up third all-time in receptions (213) and receiving yards (2,889) in Arizona State’s record books by the time it was all said and done. Harry also broke out at the young age of 18.7, ranking in the 95th percentile (PlayerProfiler.com).
At the NFL Scouting Combine, he recorded a 4.53 40-yard dash, and a 38.5-inch vertical. On the surface, these numbers look average, but when adjusting for size this is a 90th percentile speed score and an 88th percentile SPARQ composite score.
When analyzing prospects, there are certain boxes and thresholds players should meet. Harry checks pretty much all of them. He’s athletic, had massive production starting at a young age, dominated his teams receiving work (88th percentile, PlayerProfiler), and flashed potential on tape.
He’ll likely be a fringe first-round pick in the NFL Draft but could easily land inside the top-20 picks.
Fantasy Outlook: Among Harry, Iowa State WR Hakeem Butler, and Ole Miss WR D.K. Metcalf, I personally prefer Harry. In my opinion, Harry’s floor is a bit higher than both Butler and Metcalf but his ceiling is a bit lower. Yahoo Sports’ Matt Harmon suggested a role similar to JuJu Smith-Schuster would be ideal for Harry and I tend to agree. Smith-Schuster lined up in the slot on 59 percent of his snaps (TheQuantEdge.com) last season and was able to rip opposing secondary’s to shreds as he oftentimes matched up against a linebacker or weaker slot corner. It’s also a lot harder to play press coverage in the slot, something Harry wasn’t as good at separating against at Arizona State. He can be a team’s No. 1 wideout but would be best utilized at least partly in the slot. If he lands on an unimaginative team with poor quarterback play, Harry may need to be moved down in the ranks. But in a strong landing spot it wouldn’t be surprising to see Harry dominate from the get-go.
2. Hakeem Butler (22) – Iowa State (WR 2)
Profile: Butler has skyrocketed up draft boards since the NFL Scouting Combine where he answered any and all questions about his athleticism. He posted a stellar 4.48-second 40-yard dash and a 36-inch vertical. Like Harry, you may have read those numbers and been thinking “That’s not that even that good?” He’s 6-foot-5 and 227 pounds. When adjusting for size, his speed score is in the 97th percentile and overall athletic SPARQ composite score is in the 92nd percentile. He’s unbelievably athletic.
He was a bit of a late bloomer at Iowa State (30th percentile breakout age) and redshirted as a freshman. Butler never had strong quarterback play but made up for lost time as a redshirt junior with 1,318 yards, 60 receptions (22 yards per reception) and nine touchdowns. He also completely dominated their receiving work in 2018 with 43.5 percent of their receiving yards and touchdowns, landing in the 88th percentile (Player Profiler).
When you get to the tape, it’s tough to fully comprehend because sometimes you see an unstoppable wideout who you could envision dominating the NFL for years to come. Other times you see a drop-prone (16.7%) pass-catcher who can’t get out of his own way. The drops aren’t a massive issue once he’s established a relationship with his quarterback but are tough to ignore on film. Inherently, a quarterback will likely trust a wideout less if he is dropping the ball more frequently than other pass-catchers. Drops are generally overrated by fantasy analysts once you get to the NFL, but when a prospect is transitioning to a new team it could become an issue.
Sugarhouse Sportsbook currently gives Butler the second-best odds to be the top wideout off the board behind only D.K. Metcalf.
Fantasy Outlook: As I mentioned in Harry’s segment, Butler’s floor is a bit lower. If he’s unable to reign in the drop issue, he’ll likely be solely a deep-ball specialist. That’s not a bad role but isn’t going to lead to monster production that you want out of a top rookie pick. On the other hand, his upside should have fantasy owners salivating. Butler has a legitimate chance to lead the league in receiving after a season or two. I wouldn’t fault anyone for having Butler as their top overall rookie pick prior to the NFL Draft.
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3. D.K. Metcalf (21) – Ole Miss (WR 3)
Profile: Where were you when D.K. Metcalf broke #DraftTwitter? Jokes aside, his performance at the NFL Scouting Combine was something else. At 6-foot 3-inches, 228 lbs, Metcalf ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash including a 1.45-second 10-yard split. When adjusting for size, his speed score is in the 99th percentile. Everyone knew Metcalf was pretty fast, but no one knew he was this fast. Then came the agility drills. His 3-cone time of 7.38 seconds was slower than known dad-runner Tom Brady and is in the second percentile. His 20-yard shuttle time of 4.5-seconds was nearly just as bad, placing him in the 3rd percentile. Metcalf’s Mockdraftable web of measurables literally looks like Pacman, with 9-of-11 variables in the 80th percentile or higher stretching towards the outside with his 3-cone and 20-yard shuttle at the very center. I would be lying if I didn’t say that his utter lack of agility is a concern.
Then there’s his production. Metcalf struggled with injuries throughout his career which makes his raw production numbers look skimpy at best. He recorded 1,228 yards and 14 touchdowns on 67 yards in his entire career. If you just looked at these numbers there’s no shot you’d believe this is the odds-on favorite to be the first wideout off the board. When looking at just the last two seasons, he played in 19 total games. He averaged 3.42 receptions, 63.9 receiving yards, and 0.63 touchdowns in those contests. The production still isn’t overly impressive but helps shed a little light onto a per-game-basis rather than his overall career numbers.
He’s currently the odds-on favorite (-150) to be the first wide receiver selected in the NFL Draft which helps his case. For a player who’s a heavy favorite to be the top wideout off the board, there are a lot of concerns. His route tree was severely limited at Ole Miss and his most targeted routes were “Curls” (31.7%) or “Go’s” (17.1%) according to Sports Info Solutions. A positive of this is that 538’s Josh Hermsmeyer found that Curl routes are the most efficient in the NFL.
Fantasy Outlook: Similar to Butler, Metcalf has the talent to be a top-12 WR for a long time. He also carries a really low floor and could bust on a Kevin White level. Not to mention he has struggled with injuries throughout college. I’m not going to pretend to be a doctor but if you can’t play, you aren’t scoring fantasy points. Novel, I know. Depending on your desired level of risk, Metcalf, Butler, and Harry should all be in play with the 1.01.
4. A.J. Brown (21) – Ole Miss (WR 4)
Profile: Brown profiles as a slot wide receiver at the next level but at 6-foot-0, 226-pounds, he’s a bit more versatile. He massively outproduced his former teammate D.K. Metcalf at Ole Miss, compiling 2,984 yards and 19 touchdowns on 189 receptions. 59 receptions and 800 yards came from the slot in 2018 but he was still able to produce from the outside as well.
At the NFL Scouting Combine he produced an 89th percentile speed score after running a 4.49-second 40-yard dash. He also jumped 36.5-inches in the vertical jump but didn’t participate in the 3-cone drill or shuttle.
Based on recent rumors, Brown should be a late 1st round selection in the upcoming NFL Draft.
Fantasy Outlook: I envision Brown being able to turn in multiple WR2 seasons at the next level with the upside for Keenan Allen-like production in the perfect environment. In my opinion he doesn’t have “break the league upside” like Butler, Metcalf, or Harry do but can still be very productive in the NFL.
