We’ve come a long way since the Chiefs hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in February. That’s right, NFL preseason action kicks off tonight, which means fantasy football draft season is that much closer (or already underway for some of you). The fantasy landscape is bound to see major shifts as we progress through the next four weeks, with player storylines taking shape and ADPs fluctuating by the day. You may have already written off a number of players on your preseason draft boards due to a lack of production from a year ago. While the hesitation might be justified for some, all hope may not be lost for others. Let’s get into it.
Our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Guide is packed with industry expert analysis, positional tiers, mock drafts, player profiles, rankings for multiple scoring formats, and so much more. The array of tools at your disposal will surely help you dominate your fantasy drafts this year, and our experts will continue to provide insight on crucial topics ahead of the season. If you’re looking for that additional edge on draft day, you’ve come to the right place.
Variance is a word widely used in the fantasy community, and as our Denny Carter states, it is real. Analyzing variance as it relates to touchdown regression is vital when making those difficult decisions on if you should pass up a certain player when you’re on the clock. When you dig into it, there is reason to believe that a number of players can see positive regression, while others may fall flat due to other circumstances.
With all of that in mind, let’s take a look at three players who are set to see regression in 2023.
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Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos)
Wilson, 34, is coming off an abysmal 2022 campaign in which his touchdown rate fell to a career-low 3.3 percent. That’s about 2.7 percent below his career TD rate and five percent lower than his best touchdown rate. Wilson also registered a career low in adjusted yards per attempt (6.9), well below his career AY/A of 8.2.
Wilson’s drop-off was extraordinary: He was 26th in expected points added (EPA) per play in 2022 after ranking 12th from 2014 to 2021 as Seattle’s starter. He led all quarterbacks in completion rate over expected during that stretch; in 2022, he was 21st. I have a hard time believing Wilson fell off the proverbial age cliff at 33. Sean Payton’s offense should create the conditions necessary for Wilson to bump up his touchdown production in 2023.
Diontae Johnson (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Joining Pickett on the list of guys who could see the good kind of touchdown regression in 2023, last season Johnson managed to score exactly zero touchdowns on 86 catches. It could be one of the more miraculous feats in football history. In fact, it was a historically unlucky touchdown season for Johnson, Pittsburgh’s alpha wideout.
Headed into the 2022 season, Johnson had scored a TD on 7.8% of his receptions. It’s hardly a spectacular rate, but it is higher than zero. Johnson was second on the team behind Pat Freiermuth in inside-the-10 targets and he was routinely tackled within a yard or two of the goal line. The Steelers’ overall touchdown bad luck got the best of Johnson in 2022. He’s a good bet to score a handful of touchdowns this season.
George Kittle (San Francisco 49ers)
Kittle’s wild-man ways and his red zone role in the San Francisco offense could continue to create higher-than-expected touchdown production. Drafters should be aware, however, that Kittle’s 2022 touchdown scoring was wildly out of whack with the rest of his NFL career.
Coming into 2022, Kittle had scored a touchdown on 5.9% of his catches. That rate spiked to 18.7% in 2023 as he scored 11 touchdowns. He accomplished this while seeing a meager eight targets inside the 10-yard line, tied for the 22nd most among NFL pass catchers in 2022. A little TD regression in 2023 might make Kittle slightly less elite in what will again be a run-heavy 49ers offense.
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