Eric Froton is previewing every Big Ten squad by looking back at their 2022 season, breaking down any changes in 2023, analyzing their rosters and handicapping their win total for the season.
Today he wraps up the Big Ten West Division by breaking down Wisconsin and their new HC Luke Fickell.
HC - Luke Fickell (1st year)
OC - Phil Longo
DC - Mike Tressel
2022 Record: 7-6
Second Order Win Total: 7.6 (+0.6)
2022 Over/Under: 8.5 Wins (Over -145)
Points/Yards Per Game: 26.3 points | 364 yards (184 pass | 180 rush)
Points/Yards Allowed: 20.2 points | 303 yards (204 pass | 99 rush)
2023 SP+ Overall: 19th
2023 SP+ Offense: 41st
2023 SP+ Defense: 7th
2022 SP+ Special Teams: 62nd
Offensive Returning Production: 77% (22nd)
Defensive Returning Production: 66% (57th)
247Sports Avg. Offensive Player Rating: .8755 (22nd)
247Sports Avg. Defensive Player Rating: .8601 (40th)
Pace of Play: 28.5 seconds per play (112th) | 63.7 plays per game (109th)
2023 Schedule Strength: 59th
LOOKING BACK AT 2021 & 2022
Wisconsin’s 2021 offense was pretty cut and dried. When they ran the ball well and controlled the line of scrimmage - they won. When the run game was bottled up and the Badgers were forced to rely on the arm of Graham Mertz - they lost. In all of Wisconsin’s four losses they recorded a 3.1 yards per carry average or lower while rushing for less than 80 yards in three of those defeats. While their 2021 season was hardly a failure, an 8-4 regular season coupled with a 20-13 Guaranteed Rate Bowl victory over Arizona State did little to inspire confidence in HC Paul Chryst.
Heading into 2022, Wisconsin’s Over/Under was set to 8.5 (-145) as the college football world assumed the Badgers would be back to challenging for the Big Ten West title. Their offensive line returned three All-Big Ten caliber players, including NYJ 2nd round center Joe Tippmann, from a unit that boasted an average 247Sports player rating of .9178, fourth highest among FBS offensive lines last year.
RB Braelon Allen (6’2/235) fits the Jonathan Taylor archetype and took over as the primary ball carrier after easing into the rotation as a true freshman, rushing for 1,242 yards, 5.4 YPC and 11 touchdowns on the year. However Allen had a tendency to feast on the lower rung opponents, as five of his 11 scores came against Illinois State and New Mexico State, while he broke just 10 tackles in five games against Ohio State, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa and Nebraska for a paltry 13.6% broken tackle rate versus the more stout Big Ten defenses.
WR Chimere Dike averaged 13.2 yards per target on 3rd and long in the 2022 season, which was 3rd-best among FBS Receivers, despite the lackluster passing game. QB Graham Mertz simply did not perform up to expectations, again, and is now at Florida as a result. Outside of a shaky performance against Ohio State where he went 11-for-20, 94 pass yards and a 1-to-1 TD/INT ratio, Mertz actually wasn’t bad in the first half of the season. However he collapsed down the stretch, completing 45-of-99 passes for a 45% completion rate with a 2-to-4 TD/INT ratio and 126 passing yards per game over his last four contests.
The overall offensive numbers were very disappointing, going 3-and-out on 36% of their possessions (111th in FBS) with a 42% success rate (73rd) and ranking 117th in standard downs explosiveness. Even their normally impenetrable offensive line had problems, committing 4.4 penalties per game (113th) with a 29.6% pressure rate (84th) and an unacceptable 7.3% sack rate (90th). It wasn’t because the offense was timid downfield either, as Wisconsin ranked 37th nationally with a 16% deep throw rate which resulted in 19.7% of their completions going for 20+ yards (36th). However, a 3.4% interception rate (103rd) cutoff drives, while 30% of their passes were contested (98th). Mertz and company completed just 23.7% of those contested throws, which was the eighth-worst contested completion rate in the country. Clearly things needed to change offensively.
It’s hard to understate just how devastating UW’s defense was in 2021. They forced teams into 3-and-outs an absurd 44% of the time (2nd overall) with a 33% success rate (2nd) and 9% big play rate (5th). They bowed-up with their backs up against the goal line, allowing just 3.1 points per scoring opportunity (7th) while defending against both the run and pass at top-10 overall levels. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that Wisconsin brought back just three starters from that incredible 2021 defense last year. While still a top-flight unit, Wisconsin went from allowing 16.2 PPG-to-20.2 PPG, and 239 total yards allowed per game-to-303 total YPG. The Badgers were difficult to sustain drives against, ranking ninth in FBS in success rate (36%), sixth in stuff rate (24.9%) and second overall with a sensational 37.5% pressure rate. However they really got hurt by chunk plays, ranking 78th in suppressing explosiveness, and couldn’t stop opponents in the red zone finishing 129th in FBS with a brutal 91.3% Goal-to-Go TD rate. In a telling stat, Wisconsin sacked opposing QBs just once on 71 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2021 season, fifth-worst among Power 5 Teams.
Second round NFL DT Keanu Benton was a certified monster on the interior, posting 4.5 sacks, 10.5 TFL, 11 stuffs, 43 tackles and a superb 93.5% tackle rate. Fellow Pittsburgh Steelers draftee Nick Herbig brought the heat off the Edge last year, earning a PFF pass rush grade of 91.0+ for the second straight season with an elite 4.5% havoc rate per snap. They both will be missed dearly, as the defensive line produced a meager 3.8% overall havoc rate (Nat. Avg = 5.9%) with an overall tackle success rate of 86%, which ranked 99th. Additionally, Wisconsin forced just 5 fumbles on 443 carries in the 2022 season, fifth-worst in FBS.
The secondary is where the losses were most prominent in 2022, as just two players with more than 100 snaps of collegiate experience returned. As such, HC Chryst brought in transfers from Kentucky, UCLA, Toledo and Utah to close the experience gap. The results were mixed, as Wisconsin posted an exceptional 4.5% interception rate (2nd in FBS), but allowed too many big plays, ranking 90th in deep completion rate (18.5%). The Badgers simply did not have the high-end CB talent to match up one-on-one with B10 receivers, allowing 9.0 yards per pass attempt in man coverage which ranked a troubling 113th in FBS.
With the Badgers finishing a disappointing 6-6 during the regular season to go with two straight rivalry losses to Minnesota, HC Paul Chryst was sent packing in favor of Cincinnati HC Luke Fickell. And who can blame them?
LOOKING AHEAD TO 2023
The winningest HC in Cincinnati history (57 wins), Wisconsin made a phenomenal hire by bringing in the former Ohio State interim-HC, Luke Fickell, to run their football program. Fickell is the only HC to bring a Group of Five program to the College Football Playoff while distinguishing himself as an ace talent evaluator and developer at UC. He immediately overhauled the plodding UW offense by bringing in svengali OC Phil Longo, who was the architect of North Carolina’s lethal offense that averaged 36 PPG over his four-year tenure in Chapel Hill. Longo helped a pair of NFL caliber quarterbacks, Drake Maye and Sam Howell, flourish in his up-tempo system that ranked 17th nationally in pace last season, averaging a play every 23.5 seconds. In 2022, North Carolina’s offense averaged 3.0 points per drive (17th), 8.7 yards per pass (8th) and finished 12th overall in EPA/Play. For comparison’s sake, Wisconsin averaged 1.9 points per drive (85th) and 7.2 yards per pass (67th) while ranking 74th in EPA/Play. (Stats courtesy of CFB Winning Edge)
OC Longo courted former Oklahoma 4-star QB, and SMU multi-year starter, Tanner Mordecai to play out his last year of collegiate eligibility before fellow Oklahoma 4-star QB Nick Evers battles Mississippi State transfer Braedyn Locke for the starting job in 2024. Mordecai caught HC Fickell’s eye when trying to defend the SMU signal caller in the AAC the last two years when he threw 72 touchdowns-to-21 interceptions. He is lethal from a clean pocket, as his career 71% completion rate when not under duress will attest. Fortunately for Mordecai, Wisconsin has Phil Steele’s 18th rated OL in the country this year which should result in plenty of unobstructed pass attempts. Fickell brought center Jake Renfro (19 starts) and All-AAC RG Joe Huber (13 starts in 2022, 80.6 PFF overall grade) with him from Cincinnati to bolster an OL that returns four starters. Left tackle Jack Nelson (HM All-B10, two sacks allowed in 750 snaps) posted a strong 83.5 PFF pass blocking grade last year, while LG Tannor Bortolini recorded a commendable 1.6% blown block rate while playing three different positions. The biggest question mark is at right tackle, where freshman Riley Mahlman had noticeable growing pains last year allowing a 5% pressure rate and 2.6% blown block rate as he adjusted to the rigors of the college game. He will battle Trey Wendig throughout fall camp for the starting job. Second-year LT Nolan Rucci was a very highly touted high school prospect, with a father that played several seasons in the NFL, who earned a sky-high .9920 247Sports player rating and will see more time this season.
RB Braelon Allen returns for what will likely be his final season before turning pro and will be flanked by former Clemson RB Chez Mellusi (4.2 YPC in 2022) who returns from injury after missing 9 games last year. Starting slot receiver Chimere Dike (79% slot snap rate, 20 career starts) leads a retooled WR room that brings in USC transfer CJ Williams (.9707 247Sports player rating) to challenge Skyler Bell for the primary outside WR role. Dike should flourish in OC Longo’s system that threw 49% of UNC’s passes to slot receivers last year, the third-highest slot usage rate in the country.
Defensively, DC Mike Tressel is a longtime Fickell lieutenant who inherits a talented roster that allowed 303 YPG or less in each of the last four seasons. Rodas Johnson (476 snaps, 26 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 7 stuffs) and James Thompson (7.0 TFL, 1.9% havoc rate, 72.9 PFF defensive grade) are slated to lead the IDL rotation. DL Darian Varner was a First Team All-AAC performer for Temple with 7.5 sacks and a 72.7 PFF pass rush grade last year and should be a valuable B-gap/edge asset. Edge C.J. Goetz (85.5 PFF tackle grade, 27 stops) will do his best to replace program legend Nick Herbig on the outside, and is joined by Michigan State import, OLB Jeff Pietrowski. WLB Maema Njongmeta is the heart and soul of the defense and a demon when bringing pressure up the middle, accounting for 25 pressures. His 89.9 PFF defensive grade was the best on the team last year while his 2.7% havoc rate per snap leads all returnees. He even threw in 47 stops, four PBU and an interception for good measure. Njongmeta flanks MLB Jordan Turner, who posted 68 tackles, 23 pressures while earning All-Big Ten Honorable Mention recognition, but he will need to clean up his 16.7% missed tackle rate.
CB Alexander Smith was their best cover corner in 2022, earning a 72.8 PFF defensive grade while allowing receptions on 14-of-22 targets for just 163 yards. Sophomore CB Ricardo Hallman takes over for the departed Jay Shaw. He showed promise as a rFr last season, allowing just 12 receptions on 29 targets (41%) with a solid 86.7 NFL passer rating when thrown at. They bring in BC nickel back Jason Maitre who started 32 games for the Eagles over three years and is set to handle slot duty. He toggled between free safety (419 snaps) and slot corner (254 snaps) last season and help up well enough in coverage with an 83.5 NFL passer rating against, but struggled bringing down opponents in the open field with a 21% missed tackle rate. Four-star SS Hunter Wohler broke his leg last year and missed seven games, but should be a factor in 2023 now that he’s healed up and entering his third season in Madison. FS Kamo’i Latu started 12 games last season, allowing a 48% completion rate with a dirt-low 56.5 NFL passer rating when targeted.
Analyzing Wisconsin’s Win Total
The most telling metric when it comes to the Badgers’ recent performance is that they went 0-9 ATS when allowing 22+ points over the last two seasons. With a new regime in town and OC Phil Longo running the offense, it’s safe to say that Wisconsin will be tacking on around a touchdown per game to last year’s 26 PPG average which should make that stat a moot point in 2023. Their 59th ranked schedule is a dream, as the Badgers open with Buffalo before a revenge spot @Washington State in a contest where they lost 17-14 last season despite gaining 23 first downs to Wazzu’s 10, to go with two missed two field goals. Georgia Southern then comes to town before a Week 4 Friday night tilt against @Purdue in a matchup that features two new HCs facing off in their first Big Ten conference game. They have an early Week 5 Bye before welcoming Rutgers to Madison in Week 6. Wisconsin could easily be 5-0 heading into their pivotal Week 7 game vs. Big Ten West rival Iowa in a game that could decide the division. From there, they sandwich Ohio State between two road trips to @Illinois and @Indiana, before wrapping up the regular season with a three game stretch against Northwestern, Nebraska and @Minnesota with Paul Bunyan’s Axe at stake.
I think Wisconsin has Over 8.5 Wins (-130) written all over them in the first year of the potentially program-changing Luke Fickell/Phil Longo combo.
