In this weekly article, we’ll use the early betting lines from Vegas to take a deeper look at which games to target and avoid for NFL DFS. Implied team totals have positive correlations with fantasy output, especially for quarterbacks. Plus, we’ll highlight some potentially under the radar teams with high implied team totals despite a lower over/under. Note that these lines will probably change over the course of the week, which is why we call it ‘starting’ points.
Target:
Cleveland at Dallas, Total 55.5
Cowboys minus-4.5
Both Cleveland and Dallas are currently in the Top 10 of teams most generous to opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers for fantasy. Dallas has scored the eighth-most points in the league, and allowed the third-most. Believe it or not, Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry actually get the better end of this game from a pure defensive standpoint. It’s not like you shouldn’t roster Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott though, they just cost more of the salary cap. Even at his high salary ($8200 FD, $7200 DK), Prescott is the best value QB in dollars per fantasy point on those sites. Our NFL DFS Optimizer also thinks you get great value from Cooper, while Beckham seems cheap at $5800 on DraftKings this week.
While I do love the primary passing offense from both teams, don’t overlook the value of Kareem Hunt, Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz, especially on FanDuel. Hunt has just four fewer touches than Nick Chubb, but costs thousands (or tens, on Yahoo) of dollars less. In a game where the Browns are likely to be trailing, Hunt’s target share is worth the salary. Keep your eyes open for news on CeeDee Lamb; it looked like he might have hurt his leg in Week 3, and Gallup should be the primary beneficiary (maybe Cedric Wilson in tournaments, but I don’t trust him). Cleveland has been the third-most generous TE matchup this season, allowing big games to Mark Andrews and the Bengals’ tight ends, so I might consider trying Schultz as a cheap TE pivot this week. Prescott’s volume as a passer means that there are more than enough targets to go around, and Schultz has 20 already this season.
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Seattle at Miami, Total 54.5
Seahawks minus-6.5
It seems quite likely that Seattle, the second-highest scoring team in the league, will put up another 35-40 points on the Dolphins this week. Miami is the fourth-best QB matchup for fantasy in the league, and Russell Wilson is the best fantasy QB. He’s only the most expensive QB on Yahoo, you get a nice discount from Lamar Jackson on the other two sites, though Wilson is still demanding a big chunk of your salary cap. I feel like Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf should be the same salary, but the main sites have it slightly different. Metcalf is $600 cheaper on FanDuel, $200 cheaper on DraftKings, and $3 more on Yahoo. Both are Top 5 fantasy receivers (PPR), although Lockett has one more TD (four) and a better catch rate. Metcalf already has nearly 300 receiving yards and three TDs and he’s the fourth-best WR value on our Optimizer this week. I don’t think I’ll be messing with the Seahawks’ backup running backs given how hot Russ and the pass game is. Travis Homer and Carlos Hyde are both affordable, but should be expected to split carries as an afterthought to Lockett and Metcalf. If you can do it, it’s shaping up to be another week to splurge on Seattle’s big three.
It might surprise you that the spread isn’t wider here. Is there justification for Miami in DFS this weekend? Seattle has been great on offense and that has forced opponents into pass-friendly game plans, resulting in Seattle being the second-best QB and best WR matchup for fantasy. Absolutely consider throwing Ryan Fitzpatrick and DeVante Parker into a GPP lineup, or add Parker to your Seattle cash game stack; he’s cheap enough to do it with ease. I will most likely be avoiding Mike Gesicki and Miles Gaskin here, as their usage/production has been quite variable. I certainly don’t expect the Dolphins to have the luxury of rushing Gaskin 22 times again this weekend.
Note: Any game with a total over 50 points is a good one to target for DFS, and there are SIX others on the main slate that fit the bill. It’s going to be a high scoring DFS week, and one that comes with a lot of lineup variability (less chalk).
Avoid:
Indianapolis at Chicago, Total 45
Colts minus-2.5
This total isn’t even low enough to make the article in a typical week, which is further evidence for how atypical the lines are this week. The Colts rank in the bottom five in fantasy points allowed to QB, RB, WR and TE through three weeks. Chicago’s defense has limited opposing QBs to the second-fewest fantasy points, and we can’t explain that by their opponents’ strong run games (NYG, DET, and ATL). If there were a Colts’ offensive player that just fit your otherwise perfect lineup, I wouldn’t balk, but I’m not looking to actively insert players from this game into my main lineups this week. Chicago could be revitalized behind Nick Foles, but I kinda want to see it before believing it.
Tennessee vs. Pittsburgh, Total 47
Titans minus-1
By now you’ve no doubt heard about the positive COVID tests in the Tennessee organization. We know at least three players are affected, and the team is not permitted to gather in person. That means no practice this week, at a minimum, and possibly a postponement of the game. This is a situation to monitor, as is the Minnesota at Houston game, since the Titans were in Minnesota last week. If it plays, expect players here to have low ownership, and I’d be very inclined to prioritize Steelers over the mentally and physically disrupted Titans. Just use caution.
Consider:
LA Rams vs. NY Giants, Total 47
Rams minus-13
The 0-3 Giants don’t look like any sort of threat to the Rams achieving a 2-TD victory this week. Using Rams’ D/ST vs. the Giants is a good idea, given that the Giants have scored the second-fewest points in the league, and committed the second-most turnovers (7). The run game is in shambles, and Daniel Jones definitely didn’t mature as much between year one and year two as some had hoped. The Rams’ offense is definitely also in play here, from Jared Goff to Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, not to mention Tyler Higbee. Higbee was bound to disappoint in Week 3 simply by not scoring multiple touchdowns, but I expected to see more than two targets against the Bills (although I also discussed in this space how Kupp was better suited to take advantage of Buffalo). A four-player Rams stack in a multi-entry GPP is justified by the team total and matchups. The backfield situation probably won’t tilt as clearly toward Darrell Henderson this week as Malcolm Brown’s finger improves and Cam Akers has a chance to come back from his rib injury. Plus, Henderson’s salary now better reflects his recent usage and production. Depending on the RB news as the week evolves, I’m sticking with the passing/receiving options.
Tampa Bay vs. LA Chargers, Total 45
Buccaneers minus-7.5
I admit that I don’t think the Bucs are as good right now, nor the Chargers as bad, as this spread indicates. The Bucs wide receivers, most notably Chris Godwin, are in rough shape, leaving basically just Mike Evans to do the work. It’s possible that Scotty Miller or Justin Watson improve, but both are likely less than 100 percent. The Bucs do have two tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard, for Tom Brady to throw to, but both have proven hard to trust with dramatically shifting usage. And don’t even get me started on the run game. It seems pretty clear that Tampa Bay is most comfortable keeping opponents guessing, changing the game plan rather than relying on what worked the week before. That makes it hard on us, but here’s where I stand: I like Evans in all lineups, Brady as a GPP play, and Howard as a GPP play. The Chargers rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, and their secondary is still pretty elite even without Chris Harris. Part of what drives this line is Tampa Bay’s improved defense. They have effectively limited opposing QBs, generating four interceptions and 11 sacks in the last two games. They also have yet to allow even 90 rushing yards in a game. That doesn’t rule out using Austin Ekeler here, with a renewed role in the passing game under Justin Herbert, but I’m avoiding Herbert and the Chargers’ receivers this week.
Note: You’re also targeting Ravens, Chiefs and Saints as well this week, as all have implied team totals of 30 points or more, in games with a point total over 50 points. No blurbs necessary, right?
