Before I begin this hot mess of a column (you’ll see), let me give you the 411.
Usually my Tuesday nights are spent reading, thinking and writing about football. But this week, I made an exception. This weekend I’ll be a groomsman at my friend’s wedding in Los Angeles—I just found out I’m giving a toast, too. Because I’ll be out of town, I needed someone to cover my Saturday news shift. So I worked out a trade with Drew Silva. The deal was, I’d cover for him Tuesday night and in exchange, he’d hold down the fort for me while I try not to screw up my toast on Saturday.
Anyway, I’ve been covering baseball for the last eight hours and it doesn’t seem like much happened in training camp today, so I made an executive decision. Instead of rehashing the news of the day (Jordan Reed’s hurt again, Julian Edelman fought Stephon Gilmore, you get the idea), I’ve decided to go full stream-of-consciousness, emptying my brain of every last thought related to fantasy football. In no particular order, here are some of my latest and greatest musings …
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Rookie Running Backs
When it comes to fantasy, I’m not governed by many hard and fast rules. With that said, I think I’m pretty risk-averse, which is why I’m usually anti-rookie. That tendency has come back to bite me on more than one occasion. I faded Ezekiel Elliott across the board last year and obviously that’s not something I’ll be featuring on my LinkedIn page.
The thinking here is pretty straightforward. In a tie between a rookie and a proven veteran, I always lean toward the veteran because at least I’ll know what I’m getting. Zeke Elliott had all the makings of a star but so did Trent Richardson in a simpler time. They’re all gambles. Some pan out, others don’t.
As much as I hate uncertainty, which is why I usually steer clear of rookies, I also realize that fantasy success is largely driven by opportunity. And no rookie running back has been presented a greater opportunity than Leonard Fournette. There’s just so much working in his favor. His competition is weak—Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon were both useless last year. And recent comments made by head coach Doug Marrone suggest the Jaguars are going to be as run-heavy as any team in the league.
In a perfect world, Marrone said he would never throw it. Whatever Marrone’s motivation is—whether he’s merely a football purist longing for the days of old when ground-and-pound was still the preeminent offense, or if he just wants nothing to do with Blake Bortles—one thing is certain. Fournette is going to see more carries than he knows what to do with. Count me in.
As for the other rookies, I don’t see an opportunity like that elsewhere. Panthers rookie Christian McCaffrey was head and shoulders above his peers at the Combine but will probably lose goal-line work to Jonathan Stewart, who outweighs him by a good 30 pounds. Dalvin Cook should have a leg up for the starting job in Minnesota but the Vikings aren’t paying Latavius Murray $5 million a year to ride the pine. Joe Mixon faces a similar set of circumstances in Cincinnati, where he’ll face competition from pass-catcher Giovani Bernard and goal-line vulture Jeremy Hill. If the objective is to minimize risk, Fournette is the clear-cut choice.
Does Draft Position Matter?
I think it was Josh, Evan and Reebs who debated this in a recent podcast. Norris made the argument that picking first isn’t the ideal draft position. Well it is for one reason—it means you’re probably getting David Johnson, who has an actual chance at becoming the first player since Marshall Faulk to go for 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving in the same season.
I also like picking twice in a row around the turn, which gives you a chance to address multiple positions. And with plenty of time between picks, it’s easier to hatch your next scheme. Or go to the bathroom. I had to pee so bad during our mock auction the other night, but I couldn’t during the bidding.
With that said, I picked first in a recent draft and absolutely hated what I was left with at picks 24 and 25. With all the WR1s already off the board, the remaining choices were DeAndre Hopkins, Alshon Jeffery, Allen Robinson and Sammy Watkins. Hopkins could be catching passes from Tom Savage this year, Jeffery’s hamstring rips easier than notebook paper, Watkins is always hurt and plays for a team with no interest in throwing the ball while A-Rob was just flat-out bad last year. As someone who eschews risk, none of these flawed players fit my desired criteria. But since I’d already drafted a running back and wouldn’t be on the clock again for 23 picks, I had to nab one of those four (I went with Nuk, for what it’s worth). So yeah, looking at it through that lens, picking first can be kind of a drag.
Fade City
We did a mock draft recently where someone made fun of Pat (it could have been Pat himself, come to think of it) for hating so many players. I bet I have Pat beat though. Think of me as Rotoworld’s resident Silky Johnston. Any red flag and I’m gone.
Take T.Y. Hilton, for example. Hilton led the NFL with 1,448 receiving yards last year while topping 1,000 yards for the fourth straight season. Everything about him screams WR1—except for the very real possibility that Andrew Luck’s shoulder injury may linger into the regular season. I’m not completely dismissing Hilton but if the choice came down to he or Jordy Nelson—both are consensus second-round picks—I’d go Nelson every time. Why? Because there’s no chance he’ll be catching passes from Scott Tolzien this year.
Tyreek Hill is another player I can’t wait to fade. I know his volume is on the rise and that he showed well without Jeremy Maclin last season. But I also remember that Hill only topped 70 yards receiving twice last year and that his quarterback, Alex Smith, has made a living game-managing the most conservative passing offense in football. And how certain are we that Hill, the prototypical gadget player, was even meant to be a go-to receiver? Hill’s home-run potential is undeniable but if you’re looking for him to be a consistent WR2, I think you’re going to be disappointed.
For all the numbers we float around, when push comes to shove, I think you still have to go with your gut. And my gut tells me that Ty Montgomery will never be an NFL workhorse. I realize he put on weight this offseason, which should help him absorb hits as he continues his transition from receiver to running back.
But here’s the skinny. Montgomery eclipsed 50 yards rushing a grand total of three times last season and only saw double-digit carries on one occasion. Two of his three touchdowns came in one game, which happened to be against the Bears, a team that showed little resistance against the run last season. Montgomery’s skill as a pass-catcher gives him some PPR appeal, but I still don’t see what all the fuss is about.
Others I’m fading include Amari Cooper (imploded in the second half and was out-targeted by Michael Crabtree last year), Dez Bryant (last 1,000-yard season came in 2014), Brandin Cooks (no feel for New England’s target distribution) and of course Zeke Elliott (impending suspension and missing two starters from last year’s offensive line). Those are all pretty obvious, but sometimes the greatest truths are hidden in plain sight. Hey, that’s not a bad line. Maybe I can work that into my toast.
Quick Hits: As I alluded to earlier, Jordan Reed visited a specialist after injuring his toe a few weeks ago. The Connecticut native has never played more than 14 games in a season … Jim Wyatt of titansonline.com said Eric Decker “continues to look good” at Titans camp. Decker is well-known for his red-zone prowess but is also coming off hip and shoulder surgeries … Ryan Clady announced his retirement on Tuesday. The 30-year-old earned four Pro Bowl nods during his nine-year career. He spent his first eight years with Denver, winning a Super Bowl in 2015 … Kam Chancellor cashed in by landing a three-year, $36 million extension with the Seahawks on Tuesday. A founding member of Seattle’s Legion of Boom, Chancellor earned PFF’s No. 3 safety grade out of 91 qualifiers last year … The Giants brought in former Bengals kicker Mike Nugent on Tuesday. He’ll battle Aldrick Rosas for the starting job this summer. Nugent was let go by Cincinnati last year after missing six of 29 extra points … Rams defensive tackle Dominique Easley was carted off at Tuesday’s practice with what’s believed to be a serious knee injury. Easley set career-highs in sacks (3.5), tackles (35) and forced fumbles (two) for the Rams last year … Per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, there remains a “substantial gap” in extension talks between the Lions and Matthew Stafford. The former first overall pick will earn a relatively modest $16.5 million in the final year of his contract … Joe Flacco has been a spectator at camp so far while battling back stiffness, but apparently his condition is already improving. As of now, he’s in no danger of missing Week 1 … Originally slated for meniscus surgery, Crockett Gillmore also had his MCL repaired and is now likely to miss all of 2017. It’s another blow to a Ravens’ tight end corps that has already lost Dennis Pitta (waived/injured) and Darren Waller (yearlong suspension) … Breshad Perriman exited Tuesday’s practice with a suspected hamstring injury. Perriman has a lengthy injury history, though he suited up for all 16 games last year … Kelvin Benjamin weighed 243 pounds upon his arrival at Panthers camp. That’s down from a few months ago when Benjamin was rumored to be in the 270s … Cam Newton was unable to throw Tuesday due to soreness in his surgically-repaired shoulder. Despite the setback, the Panthers aren’t concerned about his Week 1 availability … Texans coach Bill O’Brien continues to heap praise on Deshaun Watson, claiming that he’s “ahead of any rookie quarterback [he’s] ever been around.” That statement came just days after O’Brien said Watson was “ahead of schedule” … Colts GM Chris Ballard insists that Andrew Luck will be active and ready for Week 1. Luck, who continues to recover at a glacial pace from offseason shoulder surgery, was noncommittal when previously asked about his status for Week 1.
