The No. 1 rusher for fantasy semifinals week was drafted as a wide receiver in 2015. He had never before notched 10 carries in a game. He entered Week 15 with one career rushing touchdown. He exited it an RB2 that could win fantasy championships.
Ty Montgomery has had a strange year. Seemingly poised for a starring role after generating 126 yards on 18 Week 7 touches, he quickly fell from the spotlight as complications from his sickle-cell trait sidelined him for Week 8. He got the ball 10 times in his Week 9 return, but averaged only six touches between Weeks 10-13. Impatient, roster-desperate fantasy owners understandably began to jump ship.
Then came last week’s 12-touch, 86-yard performance that set things straight. Yes, Montgomery is a running back, coach Mike McCarthy admitted on Monday. Yes, he’s a running back who could handle 20 carries, McCarthy added on Thursday. Yes, Montgomery could start, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport reported only hours before lineups locked. Yes, this is actually happening, owners confirmed as Montgomery gashed the Bears for a 61-yard gain in the second quarter.
Montgomery came, saw and conquered, ripping chunk gains of 26 and 36 to go with his 61-yard rumble. Per Pro Football Focus’ Gordon McGuinness, an astounding 156 of Montgomery’s 162 yards came after first contact. He forced seven missed tackles, a number matched by only Devonta Freeman in Week 15. Montgomery ran like what he is on paper: A shifty receiver with a running back’s power in an H-back’s body.
Montgomery is unique amongst the NFL’s 2,000-or-so players, and the Packers are finally beginning to treat him as such. McCarthy was understandably skittish about committing huge workloads to Montgomery as he worked his way back from his sickle-cell issues. But the caution was beginning to turn into “fear of the new” before McCarthy finally let Montgomery loose in Week 14. Week 15 was the long overdue coronation. Montgomery is the backfield weapon the Packers have lacked all season. He’s the killer app your fantasy team needs for a Week 16 edge. He’s a conundrum for short-week opponent Minnesota. He’s a great story playing even better football.
Five Week 15 Storylines
Brock Osweiler’s benching. As easy as it is to be snide, you can understand why coach Bill O’Brien stuck with Osweiler for as long as he did. O’Brien made a very public, very expensive bet on the ex-Bronco. Throwing in the towel was never going to be easy. But it was going to be too late if O’Brien waited a second longer. Osweiler was yanked after throwing picks on back-to-back plays in the second quarter, and the Texans never looked back from Tom Savage as they secured a massive victory over the hapless Jaguars. There’s no need to confirm anything: A former fourth-round pick and preseason star, Savage will be under center as the Texans play for their season against the Bengals on Christmas Eve. Savage breathed life into the Texans’ entire offense on Sunday, most notably DeAndre Hopkins, who caught his most passes in two months and posted his most yards in three months. Savage won’t be a recommended fantasy play for the holidays, but Hopkins absolutely will be.
Gus Bradley’s firing. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. Tom Savage’s useful day officially forked Bradley, a coach who was never going to save his job in Weeks 15-17. Bradley is a relentlessly positive person, but an unrelentingly bad head coach. He heads to the open market having won 14-of-62 games (.225). Promising players didn’t develop on his watch, with top-three picks (Luke Joeckel and Blake Bortles) and supposed later-round gems (Dwayne Gratz and Aaron Colvin) busting in equal measure. A defensive mind, Bradley’s side of the ball never made any progress. The Pete Carroll protégé might have to head back to Seattle for position coach work before getting another shot as a coordinator.
Blake Bortles hitting absolutely rock bottom. There are many reasons Bradley got fired. Bortles’ implosion is the most glaring. Bortles played like he had money on the Texans, converting 12-of-28 throws for 92 yards while tossing a game-ending pick so bad Philip Rivers would blush. Bortles is averaging 172 yards with seven total touchdowns over his past five starts, and would have been Osweiler’d by now were the Jaguars’ season going anywhere. The Jags’ next coach will be tasked with “fixing” the No. 3 overall pick of the 2014 draft, but it’s possible Bortles’ game is beyond save. His mechanics are sub-Tebow, and his confidence completely shot. Bortles will start Week 1 2017. It’s probably the last time he’ll be given the benefit of the doubt in Jacksonville.
Jeremy Hill’s latest waste of volume. Hill is averaging 8.20 yards per carry on 34 totes against the Browns this season. He’s averaging 3.16 on 161 against everyone else. Hill took the rock 20 times for 43 yards against the Steelers, making it back-to-back non-Browns games he failed to crack 45 yards on 20-plus carries. Throwing out last week’s 25/111/1 in Cleveland, Hill has generated 97 yards the past 55 times he’s taken the ball on the ground (1.76). Things probably won’t get any better against the Texans’ hot defense in Week 16, and certainly won’t against Baltimore in the season finale. 2016 marks the second straight year Hill’s production has fallen following his excellent rookie campaign. He should face competition on early downs next season, making him a “sell” in Dynasty leagues.
Brandin Cooks’ outburst against the Cardinals. Coming off one of his toughest three-week stretches as an NFLer, Cooks had the best game of his career. Too frequently matched up against defensive backs who were not Patrick Peterson, Cooks exploded for 7/186/2. His touchdowns went for 65 and 45 yards less than five minutes apart in the second quarter. It was a cathartic afternoon for a squeaky wheel who had been pleading for grease. Of course, back from his foot injury, Michael Thomas quietly caught seven passes for 52 yards and a touchdown. Cooks took the day, but Thomas made sure to remind why Cooks’ outbursts have grown increasingly scattershot. The Bucs are a tough Week 16 matchup. Cooks will provide ceiling, Thomas will mind the floor.
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Five More Week 16 Storylines
Adrian Peterson’s dud of a comeback. Most realistic fantasy owners had low expectations for Peterson’s rushed return. He more than met them, taking the rock six times for only 22 yards. Peterson was barely heard from after the break of a shocking blowout loss to the inscrutable Colts. Both Peterson and the Vikings will likely view his probably-quicker-than-it-should-have-been return as not worth it, but the future Hall-of-Famer did appear to avoid setbacks. He should be out there for Week 16 against the Packers, and likely in line for more work. Peterson will be an RB3 who needs to find the end zone to provide value for the fantasy finals.
A.J. Green and Julio Jones’ impending returns. The fantasy semifinals were missing two of football’s best players. Both will be back when it matters most next weekend. Green told CBS he’s returning after missing four games with a hamstring injury, while Dan Quinn said Jones (toe) should be back against the Panthers. Quinn hedged more than Green, but the tea leaves are positive for both players. Jones is obviously the more uncertain case. Working in fantasy owners’ favor is that the Falcons finally need their superstar wideout after a two-week vacation of Los Angeles and San Francisco. The question, of course, will be Jones’ effectiveness as he plays through what’s usually an extremely painful issue. Even if Jones is on a snap count, however, owners can have high expectations. The last time Jones faced the Panthers, he posted the sixth most receiving yards in NFL history (300).
Devonta Freeman ripping the usual holes in the 49ers’ defense (hope for Todd Gurley?). It was predictably too easy for Freeman, who rushed 20 times for 139 yards and three touchdowns. Again, not surprising. The question now becomes, will Todd Gurley be able to follow suit in Week 16? With two games to go, the 49ers have already allowed the second most 100-yard rushing performances in NFL history (11). Their 2,468 yards against on the ground are the most ever in 70 years of 49ers football. Jackie Battle could have a 100-yard day on this defense. If Gurley hits the century mark, it would be the first time he’s done so since Week 14 … 2015. Look for Gurley to be in the RB12-18 range in this week’s rankings.
Dion Lewis leading the Patriots in carries (18) and rushing yards (95). Lewis easily out-rushed LeGarrette Blount, stunning fantasy owners in what could have been a big day for the Patriots’ power back. Blount did save face with his Patriots team-record 15th rushing touchdown of 2016, but is he now part of a platoon on early downs? Don’t count on it. Lewis’ heavy involvement was clearly game-plan specific. Coach Bill Belichick determined the best way to circumvent Denver’s world-beating defensive line was Lewis’ shiftiness as opposed to Blount’s power. That’s not to mention the fact that Blount still carried the ball 17 times. The effort did prove that Lewis is all the way back from his torn ACL after weeks of being brought along slowly. Still only 26 and signed for $1.2 million next season, Lewis will be back as the Patriots’ primary third-down back.
Kenneth Farrow flopping as Melvin Gordon’s fill-in. Farrow could manage just 39 yards on 15 carries, barely out-gaining Ronnie Hillman on two times as many totes (7/34). Even worse, he put the ball on the ground twice. The outing all but guarantees a stricter committee if Melvin Gordon remains sidelined for Week 16’s “showdown” with the Browns, which is a real shame considering how rippable Cleveland’s No. 31 run defense is. Farrow was a potential lifehack as an RB2 for the fantasy playoffs. Instead, he’s shaping up as a mere hack.
Questions
1. Are jokes really worth making if Jeff Fisher isn’t around anymore?
2. Do Brock Osweiler and Blake Bortles have each other’s online IDs?
3. Have you considered not throwing that pass, Philip Rivers?
Early Waiver Look (Players owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Matt Barkley (vs. WSH), Joe Flacco (@PIT), Matt Moore (@BUF), Sam Bradford (@GB), Tom Savage (vs. CIN)
RB: Kenneth Dixon, Dion Lewis, Justin Forsett, Derrick Henry, Ronnie Hillman, Dwayne Washington
WR: Dontrelle Inman, Tyler Lockett, J.J. Nelson, Pierre Garcon, Cameron Meredith, John Brown
TE: Dennis Pitta, Hunter Henry, Charles Clay, Ryan Griffin
DEF: Titans (@JAX), Giants (@PHI), Chargers (@CLE)
Stats of the Week
Two. The number of passes Davante Adams dropped against no resistance in the end zone. Alternating big games and letdowns, it’s going to be hard for Adams to uphold the pattern in Week 16 against the Vikings.
22. That’s Terrelle Pryor’s receiving yardage in two games with Robert Griffin III under center. The converted quarterback had seemed like a lock for 1,000 yards, but sitting at 877, it’s far from a given with two games to go.
31 was Latavius Murray’s snap count, his lowest in four games. Murray had been getting cooking as an RB1, but with DeAndre Washington apparently back in the fold, Murray falls back to touchdown-dependent RB2.
Ladarius Green was sitting at 5/72 before departing with a concussion. It’s the worst possible news for a player who was reportedly mulling retirement last summer because of concussion issues.
Awards Section
Week 15 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Drew Brees, RB Ty Montgomery, RB Devonta Freeman, WR Brandin Cooks, WR Tyler Lockett, WR Golden Tate, TE Kyle Rudolph
The I’m Slowly Turning Into You Award: Ben McAdoo suddenly looking literally exactly like Tom Coughlin.
The Only Andy Reid Award: Watching Tyreek Hill score a 68-yard touchdown three minutes into the game … and then giving him zero other touches.
The This is Sparta Award: Bryce Petty having the most painful sandwich of his life.
Tweet of the Week, From Wynnde: Jason Witten has to have about 0.1 yac this season.
The Obviously Award, Lil’ Wayne: I may very well name my next kid or album TY Montgomery!! Girl or boy!!
