We’ve made our way into December and hopefully everyone is in the thick of their playoff races for seasonal leagues. If you happened to miss the playoffs, fantasy football doesn’t have to end. Make sure you’re dabbling in DFS to tide you over for the rest of the season as you have the freedom to play any level you want.
Let me provide the disclaimer that I encourage you use the game by game tables and data points in conjunction with your own information and thought process rather than searching out your own players in the individual player diagnosis and turning that section into a linear start/sit guide. You can always cross reference these thoughts with my weekly rankings for further context. With that out of the way, let’s hit all of the Week 14 games with a PPR light…
Oakland vs. Kansas City
| Raiders | Rank | @ | Chiefs | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 22.0 | Implied Total | 25.0 | ||
| 66.0 | 9 | Plays/Gm | 62.1 | 24 |
| 63.2 | 13 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.2 | 29 |
| 40.5% | 14 | Rush% | 38.8% | 21 |
| 59.5% | 19 | Pass% | 61.2% | 12 |
| 40.6% | 20 | Opp. Rush % | 41.8% | 21 |
| 59.4% | 13 | Opp. Pass % | 58.2% | 12 |
- Since returning from injury in Week 7, Latavius Murray is the RB5 in scoring and points per game as he leads the league in rushing touchdowns over that span with eight.
- Murray has played 65.9 percent of the team snaps over the past three weeks after playing 50.8 percent when active prior.
- 41.5 percent of the runs against the Chiefs have gained five or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
- When these teams met in Week 6, Amari Cooper had his highest target share of the season (39.4 percent) while Michael Crabtree had his lowest (12.1 percent).
- Derek Carr has thrown 13 touchdowns and four interceptions through the first three quarters this season while throwing 11 touchdowns to one interception in the 4th quarter and overtime.
- Carr’s fantasy finishes versus Kansas City for his career are QB21, QB19, QB20, QB22 and QB26.
- 85.7 percent of the runs against the Raiders have gained positive yardage, the highest rate in the league.
- The Raiders have allowed 155 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks, the most in the league.
- Kansas City averages 82.2 rushing yards per game at home, 29th in the league.
- Oakland allows the most red zone opportunities per game (4.1) in the league.
- Travis Kelce is the first Chiefs player to have three straight games of 100-yards receiving since Dwayne Bowe in 2010 and the first to have seven catches and 100-yards receiving in three straight since Frank Jackson in 1964.
- Kelce has been targeted on 32.3 percent of his routes over that span after being targeted on 18.6 percent prior.
Trust: Travis Kelce (even if Jeremy Maclin returns, Kelce should remain the top target while on fire), Amari Cooper (he’s had down yardage over the past four weeks, but we always target the receiver running the bulk of his routes on the left side and slot versus the Chiefs defense and he made good on that approach in Week 6 when he caught 10 passes for 129 yards)
Bust: Derek Carr (he has a poor track record against the Chiefs and with this game being on the road in a short week in expected colder weather, I’m expecting him to fall short of his seasonal output to date), Michael Crabtree (he runs 52 percent of his routes on the right side versus Marcus Peters, who negated him in Week 6), Alex Smith (a floor based option to begin with while Oakland hasn’t allowed a top-12 scorer since Week 5), Jeremy Maclin (as you know by now, I don’t set high expectations for players coming off of multi-week injuries, especially ones that weren’t overly strong options to begin with)
Reasonable Return: Latavius Murray (his usage has gone up and he’s been a top-10 scorer in four of six games since returning), Spencer Ware (the touchdowns last week covered up that once again the Chiefs struggled to run the ball, something that has been an issue for Kansas City since these teams last met, but he still has a volume based floor and the matchup is right for a home favorite), Tyreek Hill (he dropped to 50 percent of the snaps last week, but was still good for a flex week, something he’s done in five of his past six games)
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Washington vs. Philadelphia
| Washington | Rank | @ | Eagles | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Spread | 0 | ||
| 23.3 | Implied Total | 23.3 | ||
| 65.3 | 13 | Plays/Gm | 66.1 | 8 |
| 63.9 | 19 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.2 | 5 |
| 37.4% | 24 | Rush% | 39.6% | 17 |
| 62.6% | 9 | Pass% | 60.4% | 16 |
| 38.9% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 40.6% | 19 |
| 61.2% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 59.4% | 14 |
- Since their Week 4 bye, the Eagles are 24th in points per game (19.6) and 21st in points allowed per game (24.2).
- Carson Wentz leads the NFL in pass attempts over the past three weeks (47 per game), yet ranks 24th in fantasy output.
- Zach Ertz has had at least six targets in five straight games after seeing more than four targets just once over his first five games played.
- Washington averages 418.8 yards per game on the road, the most in the league.
- The Eagles have allowed 47 pass plays of 20 or more yards, the most in the league.
- Kirk Cousins has 52 completions of 20 or more yards, third most in the league.
- Jamison Crowder is 7th in the league in second half receiving yardage (516 yards) while 68th in first half yardage (251 yards).
- 67.9 percent of Rob Kelley‘s carries come on first down, the highest rate for all backs (min. 100 carries).
- Washington has converted 43.8 percent of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns, 31st in the league.
Trust: Kirk Cousins (he’s been the QB9 or better in five of his past six starts while the Eagles have allowed a top-10 scorer in five of their past six games), Zach Ertz (he’s definitely been aided by Philadelphia playing in so much negative script, but he has four top-10 weeks over his past five while Washington allows the third most receptions per game to tight ends)
Bust: Jordan Reed (even if active, his injury is very worrisome while the Eagles allow the fewest receptions per game to opposing tight ends. If he’s out again, Vernon Davis is still just a fringe TE1 play), Carson Wentz (the last time he was in the front half of scoring was Week 5)
Reasonable Return: Rob Kelley (Washington has trailed for all but two of their offensive plays the past two weeks as Kelley has struggled, but Washington should stay on script this week to keep him involved late into the game), DeSean Jackson (he and Cousins have finally started to connect on some long balls and no one is giving them up like the Eagles are), Pierre Garcon (he has six or more receptions in four of his past five while his season high in targets came in the first meeting between these teams), Jamison Crowder (I believe you can use all of the Washington wideouts and Crowder has been the most consistent one, going for 75 yards or a touchdown in seven straight games), Darren Sproles (he’s the only one to like from this backfield coming in as he has four top-20 weeks over his past six with five top-30 ones), Jordan Matthews (if he’s back this week, he should find volume and Washington has been much more beatable in the slot than on the outside)
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Houston vs. Indianapolis
| Texans | Rank | @ | Colts | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spread | -6 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 26.5 | ||
| 66.2 | 6 | Plays/Gm | 65.7 | 10 |
| 59.8 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.2 | 14 |
| 42.5% | 8 | Rush% | 39.1% | 20 |
| 57.5% | 25 | Pass% | 60.9% | 13 |
| 43.8% | 28 | Opp. Rush % | 38.5% | 11 |
| 56.2% | 5 | Opp. Pass % | 61.5% | 22 |
- Ryan Griffin has been targeted on 28 percent of his routes while C.J. Fiedorowicz has been targeted on 27.4 percent, which rank first and second for target rate per route for all tight ends (min. 200 routes).
- The Colts allow 9.2 yards per target to opposing tight ends, the second most in the league.
- Just 4.4 percent of DeAndre Hopkins’ targets have come from inside of the red zone, the second lowest of all receivers with 50 or more targets on the season behind Ted Ginn (1.5 percent).
- Hopkins’ 1.06 points per targets is the third lowest of all receivers with at least 75 targets on the season.
- Just 23.5 percent of Brock Osweiler‘s pass attempts have gained 10 or more yards, and just 5.5 percent have gained 20 or more yards, the lowest percentages in the league.
- Osweiler has completed just 20 of 77 pass attempts 15 yards or further downfield (26 percent), the lowest rate in the league.
- 51.5 percent of Donte Moncrief‘s fantasy output has come from inside the red zone, the highest for all wide receivers.
- Moncrief is the first Colts player to catch a touchdown pass in five straight games since Reggie Wayne in 2009.
- After allowing multiple touchdown passes just once over their first eight games, the Texans have allowed multiple touchdown passes in four straight games.
Trust: Andrew Luck (he was already the QB8 in the first meeting on the road and that was when the Texans were playing much better pass defense), Lamar Miller (I understand not going all in on Miller based on recent health scares in games, but he’s coming off of two rough matchups and still holds high volume against a team allowing the 6th highest yards per carry to opposing backfields)
Bust: Donte Moncrief (I’d still use him as a flex, but he’s eventually not going to score a short yardage touchdown and leave you in the wind while the Texans have allowed multiple top-20 receivers in the same game just once), Frank Gore (his floor has taken a step back and Houston hasn’t allowed any runner to eclipse 70 yards on the ground over their past five games), Dwayne Allen (I’m not chasing those touchdowns from Monday against a team that has allowed just three tight ends to score all season), DeAndre Hopkins (I wish I could latch onto that late game touchdown last week, but all it did was salvage another low reception, low yardage game)
Reasonable Return: T.Y. Hilton (he’s yet to post back to back top-12 weeks on the season, but Houston has allowed a top-20 receiver to the opposing team’s lead receiver in four straight games), C.J. Fiedorowicz (he’s the most consistent target in this offense and the matchup is sound once again), Brock Osweiler (he can’t get the ball downfield to his receivers, but he’s a mid QB2 option this week with his tight ends in a good spot and the Colts allowing multiple touchdown passes in eight of their past nine)
Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
| Bengals | Rank | @ | Browns | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | Spread | 5.5 | ||
| 24.5 | Implied Total | 19.0 | ||
| 66.2 | 7 | Plays/Gm | 61.1 | 28 |
| 66.0 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.4 | 27 |
| 40.7% | 12 | Rush% | 33.4% | 32 |
| 59.3% | 21 | Pass% | 66.6% | 1 |
| 40.5% | 18 | Opp. Rush % | 46.8% | 31 |
| 59.5% | 15 | Opp. Pass % | 53.2% | 2 |
- The Browns have allowed three or more passing touchdowns in seven games this season, the most in the league and most through 12 games played by a team since 1981.
- Andy Dalton has thrown multiple touchdowns in three consecutive games against the Browns.
- Cleveland has allowed 100-yards rushing in 10 games this season, the most in the league.
- Jeremy Hill has the 7th most rushing attempts (35), but the 36th most rushing yards (54) among running backs over the past two weeks.
- Hill averages 2.9 yards per carry on first down rushing attempts, the lowest in the league of all backs with 100 or more carries.
- Brandon LaFell has 35.7 percent of the Cincinnati receiving touchdowns, tied for the 5th highest of all wide receivers.
- The Browns average 62.7 rushing yards per game at home, the fewest in the league.
- Cleveland has passed on 74.2 percent of their plays over their past three games while 82.2 percent of their yardage gained over that span has been passing, the highest percentages in the league.
- Cleveland averages 3.8 yards per offensive play over their past three games, the fewest in the league over that span.
Trust: Tyler Eifert (he’s found the paint in back to back games versus two of the toughest matchups for tight ends, so this is a matchup he should smash), Andy Dalton (the only concern here is a potential volume cap, but Dalton is likely the best option that is on waivers this week)
Bust: Browns Backfield (they’ve done nothing on the ground over their past eight games while a potential change to Robert Griffin dampens the outlook for both Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson as pass catchers), Gary Barnidge (you can sell the matchup as the Bengals allow the most receiving points per game to tight ends, but Barnidge has had a wealth of good paper plays and hasn’t cleared 42 yards in any of his past five games)
Reasonable Return: Jeremy Hill (he’s hardly been efficient, but he’s still been the RB12 and the RB20 the past two weeks because of usage and touchdown potential and there’s a lot to like here based on the matchup and potential script), Brandon LaFell/Tyler Boyd (as bad as Cleveland has been versus tight ends, they’ve been nearly equally as bad against wide receivers), Terrelle Pryor (he has five or receptions in five straight, but has scored just once over his past six games)
Denver vs. Tennessee
| Broncos | Rank | @ | Titans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spread | -1 | ||
| 21.3 | Implied Total | 22.3 | ||
| 64.2 | 15 | Plays/Gm | 62.8 | 20 |
| 67.8 | 30 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.9 | 17 |
| 42.8% | 6 | Rush% | 47.2% | 3 |
| 57.2% | 27 | Pass% | 52.8% | 30 |
| 42.8% | 26 | Opp. Rush % | 35.1% | 2 |
| 57.3% | 7 | Opp. Pass % | 64.9% | 31 |
- Denver averages 77.5 rushing yards per game on the road (28th in the league) as opposed to 122.8 rushing yards per game at home (9th).
- Tennessee has allowed at least 250 passing yards in seven consecutive games, the longest streak in the league.
- Emmanuel Sanders is third in the league in first half targets (68) and 28th in second half targets (46).
- Denver faces 29 rushing attempts per game (third most) and allows 122.8 rushing yards per game (28th).
- Tennessee is third in the league with 141.5 rushing yards per game.
- DeMarco Murray is tied with LeGarrette Blount for the league lead in goal to go carries (17).
- 12.1 percent of Marcus Mariota‘s pass attempts have gained 20 or more yards, the second highest rate in the league.
- 23.3 percent of the opposing receiving yards gained against Denver are to running backs, the highest rate in the league.
- Just 6.1 percent of the pass attempts against the Broncos have gained 20 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- Mariota ranks third in the league in passing points per attempt (.539) while Denver allows the fewest passing points per attempt (.270) in the league.
Trust: DeMarco Murray (the bye week came at a good time for Murray who had started to nurse a toe injury and he comes out at home against a defense that is far worse against the run then attacking through the air and he can be used against Denver in the passing game as well), Delanie Walker (the way to attack Denver in the passing game is through backs and tight ends, something the Titans can oblige on offense)
Bust: Marcus Mariota (Mariota was the QB15 versus Minnesota earlier in the season, which I believe is the bar to set this week for an acceptable return, but Denver has allowed just two quarterbacks to finish higher than QB18 on the season), Tennessee Wide Receivers (Denver is only allowing 107 receiving yards per game collectively to opposing receivers), Devontae Booker (he’s averaged 2.8 yards per carry since taking over as the starter while Tennessee is allowing the 7th fewest rushing yards to opposing backfields per game)
Reasonable Return: Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (regardless of quarterback, this is a matchup where both will be needed to carry the offense and Tennessee has been more than accommodating to opposing wideouts, allowing the third most yardage per game to wide receivers)
Arizona vs. Miami
| Cardinals | Rank | @ | Dolphins | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | Spread | -1.5 | ||
| 23.5 | Implied Total | 25.0 | ||
| 70.2 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 57.1 | 32 |
| 62.0 | 9 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.7 | 28 |
| 36.1% | 29 | Rush% | 41.9% | 10 |
| 63.9% | 4 | Pass% | 58.1% | 23 |
| 41.9% | 22 | Opp. Rush % | 42.0% | 23 |
| 58.1% | 11 | Opp. Pass % | 58.0% | 10 |
- David Johnson joins Marshall Faulk in 1998 as the only players with at least 1,000 rushing yards and 700 receiving yards through the first 12 games of a season.
- Johnson is the first player since Edgerrin James in 2005 to have at least 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the first 12 games of the season.
- Johnson’s 15 touchdowns are the most by a Cardinals player since Sonny Randle in 1960 and two away from the team record set by John David Crow in 1962.
- Johnson’s three straight games with at least 10 rushing attempts and seven receptions are the first since Frank Gore in 2010.
- The Dolphins allow 155.3 rushing yards per game at home, the second most in the league.
- After scoring three red zone touchdowns on six targets in the first two games, Larry Fitzgerald hasn’t scored on any of his 11 red zone targets since.
- Fitzgerald has six or more catches in nine games this season, the most in the league.
- Miami averages 27.2 points per game at home as opposed to 15.3 points per game on the road.
- Jarvis Landry is fourth in the league in second half targets (64) while 43rd in first half targets (39) on the season.
Trust: David Johnson (hammer emoji)
Bust: Ryan Tannehill (Arizona is allowing the second fewest passing points per game), DeVante Parker (a date on the outside with Patrick Peterson should stunt the current run Parker is on), Michael Floyd (he played 92 percent of the snaps last week, his highest total since Week 1,but still hasn’t cracked the top-40 since Week 7)
Reasonable Return: Jay Ajayi (the matchup is poor as Arizona allows the fewest yards from scrimmage per game to opposing backfields, but Ajayi still holds an RB2 floor based on volume and was involved in the passing game a week ago), Jarvis Landry (Landry has needed negative script to carry him, but slot options have been the Achilles heel for the Cardinals’ pass defense), Carson Palmer (he’s averaged 334 passing yards per game over his past five non-Minnesota games while Miami has allowed the QB1 and QB2 the past few weeks, but the concern here is that Arizona has been flat in all three of their East Coast games this season), Larry Fitzgerald (he has 10 or more receptions in three of his past five games, but has surpassed 100-yards just once over that span while failing to score in seven weeks), Jermaine Gresham (I never thought we’d be here, but Gresham has double digit points in three straight games while Miami just woke the sleeping giant that was Dennis Pitta)
Chicago vs. Detroit
| Bears | Rank | @ | Lions | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Spread | -7.5 | ||
| 18.0 | Implied Total | 25.5 | ||
| 60.7 | 29 | Plays/Gm | 60.2 | 31 |
| 63.5 | 15 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.8 | 4 |
| 38.6% | 22 | Rush% | 36.3% | 28 |
| 61.4% | 11 | Pass% | 63.7% | 5 |
| 43.4% | 27 | Opp. Rush % | 38.3% | 10 |
| 56.6% | 6 | Opp. Pass % | 61.7% | 23 |
- After allowing 25.5 points per game through six games, the Lions have allowed just 16.3 points per game over their past six games.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged just 10.4 points per game with a high weekly finish of QB14 versus the Lions over the past five weeks after averaging 23.8 points per game with five top-7 scoring weeks through seven games played.
- After allowing 4.7 yards per carry to opposing backfields through eight games, the Lions have allowed just 3.4 yards per carry to running backs over their past four games.
- Jordan Howard‘s five 100-yard rushing games are tied for the league lead with Ezekiel Elliott, LeSean McCoy and DeMarco Murray.
- Golden Tate is the WR10 since Week 5 while ranking fourth in receiving yards (627) over that span.
- Theo Riddick played 47 percent of the snaps last week, his lowest total since Week 1.
- The Lions have run for fewer than 100-yards in 10 consecutive games, the longest streak in franchise history since 1935 (12 games).
- Chicago is allowing 27.8 points (25th) and 380.3 yards (26th) per game on the road this season.
- 37.7 percent of the pass completions against the Lions have gained 10 or more yards, the second lowest rate in the league.
Trust: Matthew Stafford (the Bears have allowed a top-12 scorer in five straight road games)
Bust: Matt Barkley (the Lions defensive turnaround is something to stock now that they’ve stopped a legit passing offense on the road and Detroit always limits opponent’s possessions)
Reasonable Return: Theo Riddick (despite the snap loss, he’s finished below RB26 just once all season), Golden Tate (he’s turned his year around, but has still been semi-volatile, with three top-24 weeks over his past seven games carrying his counting stats), Eric Ebron (after a hot stretch after injury, Ebron has given us back to back duds, but the Bears are still limited at the linebacker position given the losses of Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman), Jordan Howard (he’s the only Chicago player to really latch onto, but is a worry to lose volume second half touches in any game where the Bears lose control of game script)
Pittsburgh vs. Buffalo
| Steelers | Rank | @ | Bills | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 | Spread | 2 | ||
| 24.5 | Implied Total | 22.5 | ||
| 63.6 | 18 | Plays/Gm | 62.2 | 23 |
| 62.0 | 8 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.6 | 16 |
| 37.8% | 23 | Rush% | 47.9% | 2 |
| 62.3% | 10 | Pass% | 52.1% | 31 |
| 35.5% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 44.3% | 29 |
| 64.5% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 55.7% | 4 |
- The Steelers have run just 13 offensive plays in goal to go situations, the fewest in the league.
- Le’Veon Bell averages 7.0 receptions per game, third in the league.
- The Bills have allowed 42 completions on throws 15 yards or further downfield, tied for the most in the league.
- Ben Roethlisberger has 42 completions on throws 15 yards or further downfield, the second most in the league.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Ladarius Green ran 25 routes last week after running 28 routes total since returning in Week 10.
- Opponents convert just 42.5 of their red zone possessions against the Steelers into touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league.
- Tyrod Taylor has hit the 250-yard mark passing in just two games this season, the fewest for all full season starting quarterbacks.
- 39.7 percent of Taylor’s points are from rushing, the highest in the league.
- Buffalo averages 185.4 rushing yards per game at home, the most in the league.
- LeSean McCoy averages 5.8 yards per carry on first down carries, the highest of all running backs.
Trust: Le’Veon Bell (leads the league in yards from scrimmage and is averaging a league-high 27 touches per game), Ben Roethlisberger (he’s on the road, but the Bills have allowed 20 or more points to four of the past five quarterbacks they’ve faced and 15 or more points to seven in a row), LeSean McCoy (he’s been sensational in every full game he’s played, but we’re getting close to having to really pay attention to Mike Gillislee having four goal to go carries to one for McCoy since Week 7)
Bust: Tyrod Taylor (his legs are always a play or two away from bailing out any bad game as he’s rushed for 30 or more yards in seven straight games, but passing points here should be limited as Pittsburgh has allowed just one passer to throw for 250 yards since Week 7), Sammy Watkins (he’s been the WR44 and WR65 since returning while the Steelers are 10th in receiver yardage allowed and second in touchdowns allowed to the position)
Reasonable Return: Antonio Brown (his floor is a lock, but although the Bills are giving up tons of passing points, they haven’t allowed many huge games to wideouts, allowing just one 100-yard game since Week 2), Ladarius Green (I was a week late to the party needing a “show me” game, but this offense is starved for someone to take targets alongside of Brown and Bell and the Bills are allowing 9.9 yards per target to opposing tight ends, the most in the league)
San Diego vs. Carolina
| Chargers | Rank | @ | Panthers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spread | -1 | ||
| 23.5 | Implied Total | 24.5 | ||
| 63.8 | 17 | Plays/Gm | 64.8 | 14 |
| 64.2 | 20 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.5 | 23 |
| 40.6% | 13 | Rush% | 42.0% | 9 |
| 59.4% | 20 | Pass% | 58.0% | 24 |
| 36.7% | 6 | Opp. Rush % | 37.4% | 8 |
| 63.3% | 27 | Opp. Pass % | 62.6% | 25 |
- The Chargers have run the league’s most plays in goal to go situations (44), while Carolina has faced the fewest on defense (12).
- Cam Newton has thrown multiple touchdown passes in just three games this season after hitting that mark 10 times in 2015.
- Newton is the first quarterback to complete fewer than 50 percent of his passes in three straight games since Josh Freeman in 2013.
- Just 8.9 percent of Newton’s pass attempts have come from inside of the red zone, last in the league.
- Kelvin Benjamin has averaged just 21.3 routes per game over the past three weeks after averaging 32 per game nine games played.
- Greg Olsen is running 5.4 fewer routes per game over the past month than prior as he’s blocked on 18 percent of passing plays as opposed to 11 percent prior.
- Melvin Gordon has 50.6 percent of the San Diego touches, the highest share of team touches for any player in the league.
- 70.9 percent of Antonio Gates’ receiving yards have come in the first half, the highest of all tight ends.
Bust: Kelvin Benjamin (since being a top-10 scorer in each of the first two games he’s finished as the WR29 or lower in nine of the past 10), Jonathan Stewart (the loss of Ryan Kalil and his lack of pass catching is an issue while San Diego allows the 8th fewest yards per carry to backfields), Philip Rivers (the Panthers pass defense has been better at home, but Rivers hasn’t been a top-12 scorer over his past seven games), Dontrelle Inman (he’s jumped his weekly status the past two weeks with touchdowns on busted plays, but Carolina has allowed just one top-30 week to a slot option on the season)
Reasonable Return: Cam Newton (his play has deteriorated around the offensive line, but gets a defense coming cross country that has allowed fantasy points to passers that can move), Greg Olsen (between blocking more and Newton’s play, he’s fallen off, but you just have to keep playing him despite this horrible run he’s on given the position and hope he can snap out against a defense that just allowed the TE6 a week ago), Melvin Gordon (the touches are bankable even in a tough matchup to give you a floor), Antonio Gates (he’s completely touchdown dependent but is facing a team tied for the most receiving touchdowns allowed to opposing tight ends), Tyrell Williams (his injury may be a contributing factor for his lowest target total since Week 6, but he still played 96 percent of the snaps last week), Ted Ginn (he has five receptions in five of his past seven games and a reception of 40 or more yards in three straight games if you’re chasing a ceiling play at your WR3 spot)
Minnesota vs. Jacksonville
| Vikings | Rank | @ | Jaguars | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 21.3 | Implied Total | 18.3 | ||
| 62.6 | 22 | Plays/Gm | 66.4 | 5 |
| 61.9 | 7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.9 | 11 |
| 39.2% | 19 | Rush% | 36.4% | 27 |
| 60.9% | 14 | Pass% | 63.6% | 6 |
| 38.8% | 12 | Opp. Rush % | 45.6% | 30 |
| 61.2% | 21 | Opp. Pass % | 54.4% | 3 |
- The Vikings are allowing 1.7 offensive touchdowns per game, the fewest in the league.
- Jacksonville has rushed on 49.1 percent of their plays the past three weeks after rushing on 31.9 percent through nine games.
- 45.7 percent of the Jaguars offensive yards are rushing over that span, the third highest percentage in the league.
- Blake Bortles has averaged 169 passing yards per game over that span after averaging 269 passing yards per game prior.
- Minnesota has allowed just 16 completions on throws 15 yards or further downfield, the fewest in the league.
- Sam Bradford averages 9.5 yards per completion, the lowest in the league.
- Jacksonville allows 4.9 passing yards per attempt at home, the lowest in the league.
- The Vikings allow the third fewest passing points per game (9.7) while the Jaguars allow the 5th fewest (12.8).
Bust: Sam Bradford/Blake Bortles (neither quarterback is attractive as these defenses are first and fourth in passing yards allowed to quarterbacks), Jaguars WRs (this matchup is equally as bad as the one they faced a week ago as the Vikings allow just 5.7 yards per target to opposing receivers, the second lowest in the league behind Denver)
Reasonable Return: Stefon Diggs (he has six or more receptions in five straight games with eight or more in four of those), Kyle Rudolph (double digit targets in back to back games with double digit points in three of his past four), Jerick McKinnon (he’s worked his way back into flex consideration as he’s being used in the passing game more), Chris Ivory/T.J. Yeldon (the Jaguars have ramped up their rushing volume to limit exposing themselves to Bortles carrying the offense to put both on the radar as flex options)
New York (AFC) vs. San Francisco
| Jets | Rank | @ | 49ers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 21.0 | Implied Total | 23.5 | ||
| 61.2 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 63.2 | 19 |
| 63.9 | 18 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 69.4 | 32 |
| 40.3% | 15 | Rush% | 46.3% | 4 |
| 59.7% | 18 | Pass% | 53.7% | 29 |
| 39.9% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 49.6% | 32 |
| 60.1% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 50.4% | 1 |
- San Francisco faces 34.4 rushing attempts per game, the most in the league.
- The 49ers allow 183.2 rushing yards per game at home, the most in the league.
- Matt Forte averages 31 touches per game in three games the Jets have won and 16.3 touches per game in their nine losses.
- Brandon Marshall has been held to 70 or fewer receiving yards in seven straight games, the longest streak since his rookie season.
- Robby Anderson has 31 percent of the team targets with Bryce Petty under center.
- Marshall has 18.9 percent of the targets while Quincy Enunwa has 10.3 percent of the targets playing with Petty.
- Marshall has a 27.9 percent team target share while Enunwa a 19.7 percent one playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick.
- 57.5 percent of Carlos Hyde‘s carries have come in the first half, the highest rate in the league.
Trust: Matt Forte (the change to Bryce Petty forces the Jets to be more conservative and they’ve shown to be willing to give Forte a ton of touches while in the game, something that shouldn’t get away from them here against the league’s worst rush defense)
Bust: Brandon Marshall (he’s had a plethora of good paper matchups with no results and now the official change to Petty for the rest of the season doesn’t help him), Quincy Enunwa (ditto), Robby Anderson (the sample isn’t large enough to truly grasp Anderson being the player that garners the most targets here, plus the Jets shouldn’t be forced to stack passing volume, but he makes for intriguing tournament dart outside of league play), Bryce Petty (the matchup is strong, but the leap of faith in using him outside of 2QB leagues is just far too great)
Reasonable Return: Colin Kaepernick (last week was a travesty for any fantasy owner that used him and the Jets defensive line can be a major issue here, but the upside remains the same in him providing points that don’t necessarily equate to on-field play), Vance McDonald (he went down with the ship last week, but gets a bounce back game against a Jets defense that showed no interest in covering the tight end a week ago), Carlos Hyde (there’s enough usage here to keep him in play as a lower end-RB2, but he hasn’t had a rushing touchdown since Kaepernick took over and the matchup is still as poor as you could hope for)
Atlanta vs. Los Angeles
| Falcons | Rank | @ | Rams | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6 | Spread | 6 | ||
| 25.5 | Implied Total | 19.5 | ||
| 62.7 | 21 | Plays/Gm | 60.2 | 30 |
| 66.2 | 26 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.4 | 22 |
| 41.1% | 11 | Rush% | 39.3% | 18 |
| 58.9% | 22 | Pass% | 60.7% | 15 |
| 35.4% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 40.3% | 16 |
| 64.6% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 59.8% | 17 |
- Atlanta ranks first in points per play (.513) while Los Angeles ranks last (.249).
- The Rams have scored four offensive touchdowns at home this season, the fewest in the league.
- The Rams have averaged 212 yards of offense over the past three weeks, the fewest in the league.
- Kenny Britt is the first Rams player to reach 800 receiving yards in a season since Torry Holt in 2007.
- Julio Jones’ seven 100-yard receiving games lead the league. The next closest players have four.
- Just 4.1 percent of Jones’ fantasy output has come from inside of the red zone, the 5th lowest of all players with over 100 points on the season.
- Atlanta averages 3.9 red zone opportunities per game, 5th in the league.
- Opponents have converted 68.4 percent of their red zone possessions into touchdowns against the Rams, the highest rate in the league.
- After allowing 98.6 rushing yards per game through eight games, the Rams have allowed 144.8 per game over the past four games.
- 29.6 percent of Devonta Freeman‘s carries have gained a first down, second in the league behind Ezekiel Elliott (30 percent) for all players with over 100 carries on the season.
Trust: Devonta Freeman (he has 15 or more points in four of his past six)
Bust: Jared Goff (Atlanta is a team we circle for using quarterbacks, but his best week was good for just QB22), Lance Kendricks (he has just 64 receiving yards with Goff after averaging 47 per game prior) Julio Jones (he’s likely not going to practice much all week with turf toe and it’s a week where he won’t need to be fed targets to get ahead, so this could be a down week for Jones and he already has four weeks at WR60 or lower despite his high ceiling moments), Mohamed Sanu (he’s lookign doubtful with a groin injury and was already a floor option to begin with)
Reasonable Return: Matt Ryan (he’s cooled off a touch with just two games inside of the top-10 over his past eight games and the gameplan should center around the run), Taylor Gabriel (with Julio ans Sanu banged up he may get a target and snap bump and has already displayed a high ceiling on marginal opportunity), Kenny Britt (he’s been the WR25 or better in four of his past five games and the pass attempts should be here), Todd Gurley (his yards per carry has gone up since Goff took over, but it went from 3.1 YPC to 3.7), Tevin Coleman (he has just one top-30 week over his past four games, but hasn’t had more than two targets in any of those games, something that should change with all of the injuries in the passing game and he has touchdown upside)
New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay
| Saints | Rank | @ | Buccaneers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 24.0 | Implied Total | 27.0 | ||
| 68.5 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 68.6 | 2 |
| 64.3 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.5 | 10 |
| 36.7% | 25 | Rush% | 42.8% | 7 |
| 63.3% | 8 | Pass% | 57.2% | 26 |
| 39.3% | 14 | Opp. Rush % | 42.1% | 25 |
| 60.8% | 19 | Opp. Pass % | 57.9% | 8 |
- Last week was the first time in 60 games that Drew Brees failed to throw a touchdown pass at home.
- The Saints allow the fewest rushing yards per game on the road (71.4) in the league.
- Since Week 8, the Saints are 5th in rushing yards allowed (79 per game) and second in yards per carry allowed (3.43 YPC).
- Doug Martin averages .41 rushing points per carry, the second lowest in the league behind Jerick McKinnon (.36).
- Martin’s .55 points per touch is the lowest for all backs with 100 or more touches on the season.
- Michael Thomas leads the Saints in targets (40), receiving yards (371) and receiving touchdowns (3) on the road this season.
- Thomas leads all receivers with at least 75 targets on the season in points per target (1.79).
- Cameron Brate was targeted on a season-high 42.1 percent of his routes (his previous high was 25.9 percent in Week 10).
- Mike Evans leads the league in second half targets (78) and 4th quarter targets (40).
- Evans leads the league in receptions that resulted in a first down (65).
- Jameis Winston have averaged 8.8 yards per pass attempt over the past four weeks after passing for 6.6 yards per attempt through eight games.
Trust: Mike Evans (the Tampa target hog is squaring up with the secondary allowing the 6th most receptions and 5th most receiving yards to receivers), Michael Thomas (he’s been the most consistent receiver and has been the Saints most effective red zone option)
Bust: Willie Snead (he hasn’t hit 50-yards in five straight games and has been inside of the top-30 once in the past six), Mark Ingram (he had his lowest snap percentage since being benched in Week 8 which was partially due to script, but also is dealing with a toe injury while Tampa Bay has allowed just two top-20 backs over their past six games)
Reasonable Return: Brandin Cooks (Cooks is never a safe bet on the road, but the Bucs have allowed the third most receptions of 20 or more yards), Drew Brees (he’s been solid in his road matchups against softer pass defenses while Tampa Bay is allowing the 5th most passing points per attempt), Doug Martin (he’s been more of a floor play through volume since returning while the New Orleans run defense has been good since mid-season while he’s also banged up and Charles Sims may be returning), Cameron Brate (he leads all tight ends with six red zone touchdowns, which is tied for the team lead with Evans), Jameis Winston (he’s been lower than QB13 just once over his past seven games, but higher than QB10 just once over that time while the Saints have only allowed two quarterbacks in the front half of weekly scoring over their past five games), Coby Fleener (now that Josh Hill was lost for the season, all the snaps are his now while he leads the Saints in red zone targets on the season)
Seattle vs. Green Bay
| Seahawks | Rank | @ | Packers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Spread | 3 | ||
| 24.8 | Implied Total | 21.8 | ||
| 61.9 | 25 | Plays/Gm | 65.5 | 11 |
| 66.1 | 25 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.8 | 2 |
| 39.7% | 16 | Rush% | 35.0% | 31 |
| 60.3% | 17 | Pass% | 65.0% | 2 |
| 42.1% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 40.4% | 17 |
| 57.9% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 59.6% | 16 |
- Green Bay ranks second in the league in red zone opportunities per Game (4.1).
- James Starks played just seven snaps last week after playing 68 percent of the snaps over the three previous weeks since returning from injury.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Jordy Nelson leads the league in routes run (43.5) while Davante Adams ranks 4th (40.1).
- Aaron Rodgers leads the league with 82 pass attempts from inside the red zone. Seattle has allowed just 49 pass plays in the red zone, 8th fewest in the league.
- 43.4 percent of Rodgers’ fantasy production has come from the red zone, the highest percentage in the league.
- After rushing for just 65.5 yards per game over their previous six games, the Seahawks have run for 173 yards per game over the past three weeks.
- Jermaine Kearse has the most red zone targets (11) without a reception in the red zone this season.
- Russell Wilson has failed to throw a touchdown pass in four of his six road games on the season.
- The Packers allow 6.8 passing yards per attempt at home as opposed to 8.6 yards per attempt on the road.
Trust: Jimmy Graham (he’s been his best at home, but the Packers allow the second most receiving yards per game to tight ends), Doug Baldwin (he has six or more receptions in four of his past five games while Green Bay has been giving to receivers out of the slot this season)
Bust: Aaron Rodgers (while the loss of Earl Thomas is significant, Seattle has allowed just two top-10 quarterbacks on the season while the Packers have their lowest team total on the season), Davante Adams (his two worst games over the past seven weeks have come against teams that defend boundary receivers well), James Starks (he can’t be trusted now that Christine Michael has finally gotten involved), Randall Cobb (he hasn’t been a top-30 scorer in five straight and a top-40 scorer just once over that time)
Reasonable Return: Jordy Nelson (the matchup is enough to limit his ceiling, but he’s the best touchdown producing wide receiver on the season), Russell Wilson (he’s been volatile on the road even through great matchups and although the Packers are more than a favorable matchup, they also allow the fewest possessions per game to opponents), Thomas Rawls (I’m not 100 percent sure which of the past two versions of Rawls and this offense are real and Green Bay has allowed just more than 60 rushing yards to two backs over their past seven games, but he still has no competition for touches)
Dallas vs New York (NFC)
| Cowboys | Rank | @ | Giants | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Spread | 3 | ||
| 25.3 | Implied Total | 22.3 | ||
| 64.1 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 61.3 | 26 |
| 61.8 | 6 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 69.1 | 31 |
| 50.9% | 1 | Rush% | 36.4% | 26 |
| 49.2% | 32 | Pass% | 63.6% | 7 |
| 32.0% | 1 | Opp. Rush % | 37.2% | 7 |
| 68.0% | 32 | Opp. Pass % | 62.9% | 26 |
- Dallas averages 2.6 red zone touchdowns per game, second in the league.
- The Giants have allowed just 15 red zone touchdowns on the season, tied with the Ravens for the fewest in the league.
- Ezekiel Elliott leads the league with 10 games of 20 or more rushing attempts, the most by a rookie back in a season since Eddie Lacy in 2013.
- The Cowboys have rushed for over 100-yards in 16 consecutive games, their longest streak as a franchise since 1975.
- Elliott leads the league in second half rushing yardage (703 yards), 164 more yards than the next closest player (Melvin Gordon).
- After catching just 39 percent of his targets (16 of 41) through five games, Dez Bryant has reeled in 70 percent (21 of 30) over the past four games.
- The Giants average 381.8 yards per game at home (11th) as opposed to 273 yards per game on the road (32nd).
- 76.3 percent of the yardage gained by the Giants has been through the air, the highest percentage in the league.
- 77.1 percent of the yardage gained against the Cowboys has been through the air, the highest percentage in the league.
- Odell Beckham has 25.2 percent of the New York offensive yardage, the highest percentage for any wide receiver.
Trust: Ezekiel Elliott (the safest bet for effective rushing volume week in and out and the Giants just lost Jason Pierre-Paul for the season)
Bust: Cole Beasley (he’s been the WR47 or lower four of the six games since Bryant returned), Rashad Jennings (his receiving work must save him as it did a week ago, as Dallas faces the lowest amount of rushing volume per game), Sterling Shepard (he’s scored in four of his past five games, but hasn’t gone over 50 yards in nine consecutive games)
Reasonable Return: Odell Beckham (he’s had three down games in a row versus Dallas as the Cowboys limit pace and prevent big plays, but nearly all the yardage posted against Cowboys is through the air while Beckham is producing the bulk of the New York offensive yardage), Dez Bryant (it was only a matter of time until Prescott’s efficiency found its way to Bryant and he’s averaged 88 yards per game with four touchdowns over the past four weeks, but the Giants have only allowed two top-12 receivers all season), Dak Prescott (he’s a much different player than the one we saw in Week 1, but the Giants have only allowed two top-12 quarterbacks), Jason Witten (he has just three targets over the past two games, but he has a history of torturing the Giants and New York faces the second most target per game to tight ends), Eli Manning (he hasn’t finished as a top-12 quarterback in any of his past three games versus Dallas and Manning has been a top-12 scorer in just two of 12 games on the season)
Baltimore vs. New England
| Ravens | Rank | @ | Patriots | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spread | -7 | ||
| 19.0 | Implied Total | 26.0 | ||
| 67.7 | 4 | Plays/Gm | 65.4 | 12 |
| 60.4 | 3 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.1 | 12 |
| 35.3% | 30 | Rush% | 44.3% | 5 |
| 64.7% | 3 | Pass% | 55.7% | 28 |
| 35.9% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 37.7% | 9 |
| 64.1% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 62.4% | 24 |
- New England ranks second in the league in points allowed per play (.273) while Baltimore ranks 5th (.286).
- Baltimore allows the fewest red zone opportunities per game (2.4) while New England allows the 6th fewest (2.8).
- 80.8 percent of the touchdowns scored against the Ravens have been passing, the highest in the league.
- Tom Brady has averaged 6.1 passing yards per attempt the past three weeks after averaging 9.8 yards per attempt prior.
- Julian Edelman has averaged 2.8 more targets per game for his career when Rob Gronkowski is inactive.
- Malcolm Mitchell has run 41 routes in each of the games Gronkowski missed outright while running just 19 the game in between.
- 9.3 percent of Mike Wallace‘s yardage has come in the 4th quarter, the second lowest of all receivers.
Trust: Julian Edelman (he’s averaged 13.3 targets over the past three weeks, nearly five more per game prior to when Gronk was injured)
Bust: LeGarrette Blount (a touchdown dependent back facing the defense that has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns to backfields on the season), Chris Hogan (he’s a touchdown or bust as he hasn’t had more than five targets in a game since Week 1 and has had no more than four catches in any game all season), Joe Flacco/Dennis Pitta (the low team total while on the road should be enough to prevent chasing last week’s outlier game from either), Martellus Bennett (he’s had one usable game over his past seven and the Ravens have been one of the best a defending the tight end position all season), Terrance West (the Patriots have neutralized pure rushing backs as they haven’t allowed any back to hit 90 yards rushing on the season and have allowed just four rushing touchdowns on the season), Mike Wallace (he’s been the WR38 or lower in three of his past four games and has one touchdown over his past 10 games)
Reasonable Return: Tom Brady (he’s been higher than QB15 in just one of his past four games and without Gronk, his expectations levels need to be altered to more of a lower end QB1), Malcolm Mitchell (he has been a top-16 scorer in each of the past three games as he’s had major snaps in the two games in which New England prepared to not have Gronk and scored twice in the other games after he was injured), James White/Dion Lewis (collectively this is a great spot as Baltimore is tied in allowing the 4th most receptions per game to backs, but both are eating into each other’s snaps that prevent vaulting either over flex status), Kenneth Dixon (he’s been a top-24 back in three of his past four games and the Patriots are tied with the Ravens in allowing the 4th most receptions to backfields), Steve Smith (his yardage has dipped the past two weeks, but he’s still the most stable play for targets in this passing game)
Context Key:
Trust = Set him in your lineups this week
Bust = Player to underperform season average
Reasonable Return = Baseline Play without Ceiling Expectations
**All Vegas Lines are taken from BetUs Tuesday Evenings
