Every week of the 2025 NFL regular season, I’ll use this space to highlight teams facing various funnel defenses and fantasy options who could benefit.
What’s a Funnel Defense?
A funnel defense, in case you’re wondering, is a defense that faces an unusually high rate of pass attempts or rushes. I’ll take a close look at how opponents are playing these defenses in neutral game script — when the game is within a touchdown either way — and how good or bad these rush and pass defenses have been of late.
Identifying funnel defenses is hardly an exact science, and whacked-out game script can always foil our best-laid plans. It happens. I’ve found it useful in recent seasons to analyze matchups through this lens to see if there are any useful additions to the always-agonizing start-sit process we put ourselves through every week.
With more data, this analysis will improve. It happens every season. We are eyeball deep in data headed into Week 17.
▶ Pass Funnel Matchups
Saints vs. Titans
It’s not that the Titans are shutting down opposing run games. They’re not. But Tennessee opponents are continually choosing to attack the Titans via the pass: Only the Cowboys and Broncos have faced a higher pass rate over expected than the Titans since Week 9.
Titans opponents over the past eight weeks have passed the ball at a healthy 60 percent clip in neutral situations (when the game is within one score). I’d expect more of the same in Week 17 from a Saints offense that has leaned toward the pass for much of the past month, possibly because they don’t have a single decent running back on their roster.
A pass-first script for New Orleans should mean Tyler Shough should once again be locked in as a top-15 option and a luxury in superflex formats. Shough over the past month has averaged 0.47 fantasy points per drop back, which ranks 10th among all quarterbacks, tied with Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow and just a tick below Jalen Hurts. Shough is fresh off a 55 drop back performance against the Jets in Week 16. I think he could push for another 50 drop backs against the Titans, barring, of course, weird game script.
Shough to Olave for the Saints TD!
— NFL (@NFL) December 21, 2025
NYJvsNO on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/C7dfe07A4e
Chris Olave should continue taking no prisoners in Week 17. He’s devouring air yards and targets in the Saints offense. Since Week 12, Olave has 450 air yards, second only to CeeDee Lamb. His 30 targets over those three weeks ranks fifth among receivers. With Devaughn Vele (shoulder, IR) sidelined in Week 16, Juwan Johnson saw a nice little receiving profile (eight catches on nine targets, 89 yards, to go along with seven first-read targets at a 28 percent targets per route run). He would be a natural beneficiary of a pass-heavy situation for the Saints against the pass-funnel Titans.
Taysom Hill, I guess, could also benefit from ample Shough drop backs. Hill against the Jets last week ran 36 percent of the routes and was targeted on a stunning 35 percet of those routes. Remember though: That was Hill’s sendoff in what will likely be his final game at the Superdome. Week 17 probably won’t be another Taysom Hill Memorial Game.
Colts vs. Jaguars
We saw grandfather Philip Rivers’ arm look a whole lot livelier in Monday night’s loss to the 49ers. Rivers wasn’t throwing Joe Milton fastballs, but he was pushing the ball aggressively downfield, as evidenced by his 11 air yards per attempt.
Rivers’ improved arm strength and deeper passing made a real difference for Indy pass catchers. In Week 15 against Seattle, the Colts totaled 125 team air yards on 27 pass attempts. Against the Niners, they racked up 363 total team air yards. Only four teams had more. It was enough to make more than a couple Colts pass catchers live for 12-team league fantasy purposes.
Now Rivers and the horseshoes face a Jacksonville defense profiling as the NFL’s most extreme pass funnel. No team has seen more air yards against them than the Jaguars, who have faced a sky-high 67 percent neutral pass rate since Week 9. The Colts, meanwhile, were slightly above their expected pass rate in Week 16 after being 11 percent below their expected pass rate in Week 15 against the Seahawks.
Josh Downs is running a bunch more routes than he ran in the season’s early going. He logged 33 routes on 37 Colts drop backs in Week 16 as Indy used three-receiver sets at a season high rate. That led to a team-leading nine targets for Downs, who operates as a nice underneath safety blanket for Rivers. Downs surprisingly led the Colts with 124 air yards against the Niners.
Tyler Warren — who had eight targets against the 49ers — occupies a similar role, and has been targeted on a team-leading 26 percent of his routes since Rivers took over.
Alec Pierce is in play for deeper league purposes, though fantasy managers should know he’s a (very) high variance option. He averaged 20 air yards per target in Week 16. Michael Pittman is fine too. His receiving profile with Rivers under center isn’t quite inspiring though. Pittman has been targeted on a humble 16 percent of his pass routes over the past two games and ranks a distant third in air yards. Against a pass-funnel Jags defense, Pittman — who had 79 yards on 12 targets in Week 3 against Jacksonville — could make up for that lack of involvement with added pass volume for the Colts.
Packers vs. Ravens
This one is tough to analyze because we don’t know who is going to be under center for Green Bay after both Jordan Love and Malik Willis picked up injuries in Week 16’s loss to the world-beating Bears.
So I’ll start with the assumption that Love will start: This would make Christian Watson and perhaps Jayden Reed viable for flex purposes in 12-team leagues. The Packers offense with Love at the helm would likely generate somewhere between 200 and 250 total air yards, with upside to spare. That usually means two guys can get there, maybe three depending on game script.
If Willis starts: Reed becomes unplayable, along with Romeo Doubs. Watson, I guess, could be used as a flex but would be a much thinner play because the Packers would go from a 55 percent neutral pass rate to something around a 35 percent neutral pass rate. A Willis-led Green Bay offense might generate 100-150 total team air yards. That’s rough for all involved.
The Packers are taking on an increasingly pass-funnel Baltimore defense in any case. The Ravens since Week 10 have faced a 60 percent neutral pass rate, the fifth highest in the NFL. Five of the Ravens’ past seven opponents have gone over their expected pass rate. The Patriots in Week 16 had their pass-heaviest outing of 2025 against the Ravens, going 14 percent over their expected pass rate.
It’s not that Watson is dominating Green Bay’s pass game. He has accounted for 17 percent of the team’s targets and 28 percent of the air yards over their past three games. That makes him the de facto WR1, though it’s not the profile as a true WR1. Against a Ravens defense allowing 285 team air yards per game — the fifth highest mark in the NFL — Watson becomes interesting as a volatile flex, but only if Love starts.
▶ Run Funnel Matchups
Eagles vs. Bills
This game sets up as a rather ugly one for fantasy purposes. We talked about it on Thursday’s Rotoworld Football Show: Both of these defenses are pronounced run funnels, neither of these teams run a lot of offensive plays, and both are fine with wildly run-heavy scripts. Barring some kind of game script weirdness, it will be tough for any pass catcher in this game to get home for fantasy managers.
Since Week 10, the Bills have seen a 50 percent neutral pass rate against them. The only team that has faced a lower neutral pass rate — you guessed it — is the Eagles (49 percent). Only four teams have faced a lower pass rate over expected than the Eagles over that stretch.
The reasons for these run-heavy approaches are different, however. Teams attack Buffalo on the ground because they stink against the run. Eagles opponents try to go run heavy because they want nothing to do with Philly’s pass rush or their shutdown coverage unit. No team has given up a lower drop back EPA than the Eagles since Week 10. Their secondary is humming.
Expect another heavy dose of James Cook in this one. Cook has at least 18 carries in nine games this season. It would be stunning if he doesn’t notch another one of those games in Week 17 against the run-funnel Eagles. That would make it tough for Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, or any other Buffalo pass catcher to see more than a handful of targets. Be careful with how you use anyone in the Bills offense besides Josh Allen and Cook.
Philadelphia pass catchers are a little more complicated. Dallas Goedert’s inside-the-ten involvement makes him a decent weekly bet to catch a touchdown, and over the past three games he’s seen 23 percent of the team’s targets (20 targets). I think you have to play DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown and hope they can have efficient days against a Buffalo secondary allowing a bottom-10 drop back EPA since Week 10.
The Bills have played man coverage at a 27 percent rate since Week 10; it’s not a high rate but it might be enough to make this matchup more enticing for Brown, who traditionally wrecks man coverage. Buffalo plays two high safety coverage at the league’s second highest rate, so we could get more underneath passing than usual from Jalen Hurts.
