Arnold Palmer Invitational
Orlando, Florida
Playing out of the 11th-to-last twosome, World No. 10 Francesco Molinari erased a five-shot deficit with bogey-free, 8-under-par 32-32=64 in Sunday’s final round at Bay Hill Club & Lodge for a 72-hole tally of 12-under 276, up 16 places on the day, good for the low round of the week and a two-shot victory over runner-up and 54-hole leader Matthew Fitzpatrick, who shot 71.
PGA TOUR rookie Sungjae Im and playing competitor Tommy Fleetwood both shot 68 out of the eighth-to-last twosome to share 3rd-place, three adrift, along with first-round leader Rafa Cabrera Bello (69), who was in the fifth-to-last twosome.
Molinari, 36, was a pre-tourney 33/1 outright and bags his third TOUR title in 132 events, first since a three-shot, come-from-behind win at the 2018 Open Championship (Carnoustie) nine starts ago as a 25/1 outright, where he closed with bogey-free 69 out of the third-to-last twosome (alongside Tiger Woods) to win by two over four players.
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Final Leaderboard (pre-tourney odds outright):
1- (-12, 276) Francesco Molinari (33/1)
2- (-10, 278) Matthew Fitzpatrick (100/1)
3- (-9, 279) Sungjae Im (125/1)
3- (-9, 279) Tommy Fleetwood (33/1)
3- (-9, 279) Rafa Cabrera Bello (50/1)
Notes:
- Repeat top-10 finishers from last year: Rory McIlroy (6-1); Luke List (10-7)
- 13/2: Defender McIlroy was the pre-tourney fave outright and finished T6, four adrift.
- 7/4: McIlroy’s revised outright betting entering the final round.
- 72: McIlroy’s two-birdie, two-bogey score in another disappointing, well-publicized, final-round letdown.
- 27: It’s been 27 events since the last pre-tourney fave/co-fave won: Dustin Johnson at the 2018 RBC Canadian Open eight months ago.
- 4: Molinari is the fourth straight international winner at Bay Hill. The top American this week was Keith Mitchell’s T6, which chased his breakthrough win at last week’s Honda Classic.
The University of Turin product, who before turning pro in 2004 won the Palmer Cup that same year, didn’t join the PGA TOUR full-time until 2015. He played as a non-member between 2007 and 2014, recording six top 10s in 53 events, and went 12-for-12 with seven top 25s in 2014, accepting Special Temporary Membership during the season. Molinari parlayed that into a top-125 finish in non-member FedExCup points to earn his card for 2015.
He’s a six-time victor on the European Tour in 319 events, twice last year in 12 starts. Along with the 147th Open, the London resident also won their flagship event in 2018, the BMW PGA at Wentworth GC in England, and in the end, was crowned Race to Dubai champion.
The Italian, by his own admission, was a slow-starter on this side of the pond insofar as wins are concerned. He’s qualified for the FEC Playoffs in all four seasons he’s been eligible, including a career-best finish of 17th last season, which culminated with a T21 (of 30) in his TOUR Championship debut. One week later, Molinari went 5-0-0 at Le Golf National in France, boosting Europe to a 17.5 to 10.5 drubbing of the visitors.
It took him 121 events to claim his first TOUR title, the 2018 Quicken Loans National in Maryland (TPC Potomac), where he was a 54-hole co-leader and closed 8-under 62 to win by eight. He’s now won three times in his last 12 starts.
Interestingly, Molinari claims victory in his first start as a Callaway staffer, introduced as such on Tuesday of this past week.
API Form: 1-26-7-9-17-5-34
This was his seventh consecutive API, seventh cash and fifth top 25. Molinari records his fourth top 10, third in his last four tries, and second top 5 (T5/2014). His Sunday 64 was his best lap (by three) on the par-72 layout, previously 67 in 2014/R1. Molinari’s scoring average is now 70.18 in 28 rounds with 20 of those in the red.
Season Form: 1-17-27-43
We’re now 19 events into the season but Molinari was making just his fourth start. He played once in the fall – a T43 at the WGC-HSBC – and one time in each of the last three months: January: T27, Sentry TOC; February: T17, WGC-Mexico; March: Win, API. This, according to his post-tourney comments, was intentional. Molinari also had a recent bought with the flu, which put his start in Mexico City in question.
Quote after R4: “…I think the smart thing to do was take a longer break during the winter and just take time to relax. I’ve never been a fast starter…so it’s nice to see a change in that trend.”
After kicking off with 69-70 and 73 out of the third-to-last group on Saturday, Molinari began T17, five back of leader and non-member Fitzpatrick.
He striped 12 (of 14) fairways and landed 14 greens in regulation, posting 1.367 SG: Off-the-Tee, 1.400 SG: Approach, and 0.896 SG: Around-the-Green.
Molinari rang up eight birdies at holes 1, 3, 6, 8, 12, 13, 16 and 18, four from between 14 and 44 feet, adding a pitch-in 3 at 8 from 44'7" away. He recorded 1.571 putts per GIR and 4.223 SG: Putting with 25 total putts.
Molinari first touched the lead with birdie-3 at 13 (from 18’4”), his sixth birdie of the day, now tied with Fitzpatrick (1-under thru six) on 10-under total.
Molinari’s seventh circle, a 2-putt version at the par-5 16th, moved him one clear of Fitzpatrick (1-under thru eight), and then capped with a 43’9” bomb for birdie-3 at 18 to post 12-under. At that point, eventual runner-up Fitzpatrick was 1-under thru 11 holes, two back, which ended up being the final margin.
For the week, Molinari tallied one eagle and 17 birdies versus five bogeys and one double, and ranked No. 1 in SG: OTT (5.075).
How Molinari Won the Tournament:
Ranked 1st (or T1) in: SG: OTT; Par-4 Scoring; All-Around
Ranked 2nd (or T2) in: Birdie to Bogey Ratio; Sand Saves
Note: See “Strokes Gained Leaders Stats” at the bottom, along with his full stats.
Career:
Starts: 132
Cuts Made: 106 (80.3%)
Top 25s: 55 (41.6%)
Top 10s: 22 (16.6%)
Top 3s: 7 (5.3%)
Wins: 3 (2.2%)
7
This was his seventh career top-3 finish in 132 events, an updated 5.3 percent chance of hitting the podium. However, it’s his fourth in his last 12 (33.3%), including a run last year of: 1 (Quicken Loans), T2 (John Deere Classic), and 1 at The Open.
Draw:
A total of 70 players (69 pros, 1 amateur) from a field of 121 pros and two amateurs made the 36-hole cut of 1-over 145:
37 (of 62) EARLY/late; 1 WD (Jason Day)
33 (of 60) LATE/early
14 players finished in the top 10:
EARLY/late (5):
Francesco Molinari (Won); Matthew Fitzpatrick (2nd); Rafa Cabrera Bello (T3); Keith Mitchell (T6); Lucas Glover (T10)
LATE/early (9):
Sungjae Im (T3); Tommy Fleetwood (T3); Sung Kang (T6); Matt Wallace (T6); Rory McIlroy (T6); Adam Long (T10); Jason Kokrak (T10); Byeong Hun An (T10); Luke List (T10)
10
10 (of 19) tourneys so far this season with a traditional draw:
Winners:
EARLY/late: 5 (Molinari)
LATE/early: 5
Strength of Field:
With a Strength of Field rating of 545 (up 102 from last year), Molinari banks 64.00 world-ranking points and bumps three spots to 7th in the Official World Golf Ranking. His career high is 5th, achieved on a couple of occasions last year.
OWGR: 7th (up 3)
He earns 500 FEC points, vaulting 131 places to 20th in the standing.
FEC: 20th (up 131)
Note: Molinari is in the published field at this coming week’s PLAYERS, where notably after a MC last year, which ended a run of three straight top 10s at TPC Sawgrass, he made wholesale changes in his camp. Those changes resulted in three wins and two runners-up in his next six worldwide events.
Molinari’s Position by Round:
R1: T8 (4 back)
R2: T3 (4 back)
R3: T17 (5 back)
Note: Molinari is the third straight, and fifth in the last six API’s, to not lead or co-lead after any of the first three rounds.
Leader/co-leaders by Round:
R1: Rafa Cabrera Bello (finished T3): Drops to 0-for-2 as 18-hole leader/co-leader
R2: Tommy Fleetwood (T3): Drops to 0-for-3 as 36-hole leader/co-leader
R2: Keegan Bradley (T46): Drop to 1-for-5
R3: Matthew Fitzpatrick (2nd): Drops to 0-for-1 as 54-hole leader/co-leader
Runner-Up:
Matthew Fitzpatrick (70-70-67-71): Playing his fifth API, the Englishman records his second top 25 and first top 10. He missed the cut last year by two (76-71) and was an 18-hole co-leader in 2017 before finishing a previous-best T13 (67-69-72-76).
API Form: 2-MC-13-27-MC
The 24-year-old, who was a Special Temporary Member last season, earns 300 non-member FEC points, No. 1 on that list – and would currently rank 51st among members. He checked in off a T27 at the WGC-Mexico two weeks ago.
Worldwide Form: 2-27-MC-16-4
OWGR: 33rd (up 11)
FEC: N/A
The Northwestern product, who’s a five-time winner on the European Tour in 114 events, bags his career-TOUR-best in 46 events, previously T7 (x2), most recently at the 2016 Masters. Overall, it’s his fourth top 10, first since a T9 at last season’s WGC-HSBC.
Career:
Starts: 46
Top 10s: 4
Podiums: 1
Note: The 2013 U.S. Amateur champ is in the published field at THE PLAYERS, where his T46 last year was his first cash in three appearances.
Field Scoring Average:
This was the 54th playing of the API, 41st and 41st consecutive at Bay Hill:
Par 72 (36-36)
7,454 yards
Cumulative Scoring Average:
R1: 73.00
R2: 72.05
R3: 72.34
R4: 71.90
Total: 72.38
Molinari: 69-70-73-64
SG: Total: 13.292
Low Rounds:
R1: 65: Rafa Cabrera Bello
R2: 66: Tommy Fleetwood, Beau Hossler, Henrik Stenson
R3: 66: Rory McIlroy, Chris Kirk, Tyrrell Hatton
R4: 64: Francesco Molinari
Bogey-free Rounds:
R1: (2): Keegan Bradley (67); Tommy Fleetwood (69)
R2: (2): Henrik Stenson (66); Sam Saunders (68)
R3: (2): Matthew Fitzpatrick (67); Jason Kokrak (68)
R4: (3): Francesco Molinari (64); Sam Ryder (69); Jimmy Walker (70)
Multiple Bogey-free Rounds: NONE
TOUR Rookies &/or First-Timers:
Rookies: 5
Top-10 finishes: 2
Best finish(es): T3
Sungjae Im: T3 (71-69-71-68); career best
Season Form: 3-51-MC-MC-7-52-12-16-37-MC-15-MC-41-4
Times Low Rookie: Six (in 14 starts)
Adam Long: T10 (74-71-69-67)
Season Form: 10-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-1-MC-MC-MC-63
First-Timers: 26
Top-10 finishes: 5
Best finish(es): T3 (x2)
Rafa Cabrera Bello: T3 (65-75-70-69); tied career best (x4)
Season Form: 3-19-25-22-14-3-50
Sungjae Im (covered above)
Season Leaders in Top-10 Finishes:
5: Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm
4: Lucas Glover, Patrick Cantlay, Marc Leishman, Charles Howell III, Scott Piercy
Consecutive Top 10s on TOUR:
5: Rory McIlroy (6-2-4-5-4)
3: Lucas Glover (10-4-7)
2: Keith Mitchell (6-1)
2: Jason Kokrak (10-9)
2: Wyndham Clark (7-10)
2: Sergio Garcia (9-6)
2: Dustin Johnson (1-9)
Consecutive Top-10 Streak Ended at:
2: Si Woo Kim (MC-3-4)
2: Jason Day (WD-4-5)
Molinari’s Weekly Stats (ranking of 70 players):
Eagles: 1 (T7)
Birdies: 17 (T10)
Bogeys: 5 (T4)
Double Bogeys: 1 (T20)
Birdie or Better: 25.00% (T8)
Birdie to Bogey Ratio: 3.00 (T2)
Par-3 Scoring: 2.88 (T3)
Par-4 Scoring: 3.85 (1st)
Par-5 Scoring: 4.75 (T54)
Driving Distance (all drives): 284.0 yards (T31)
Driving Accuracy: 43/56 (T3) at 76.79%
GIR: 48/72 (T6) at 66.67%
Proximity: 37’11” (18th)
Putts per GIR: 1.708 (18th)
Total Putts: 109 (T14)
Putts by Round: 25-30-29-25
Scrambling: 19/24 (5th) at 79.17%
All-Around: 1st
Leaders in Strokes Gained Stats:
SG: Off-the-Tee:
1. Francesco Molinari (5.075)
2. Rory McIlroy (5.074)
3. Adam Hadwin (5.018)
4. Byeong Hun An (4.925)
5. Tommy Fleetwood (4.865)
SG: Approach-the-Green:
1. Chesson Hadley (8.990)
2. Jason Kokrak (8.461)
3. Henrik Stenson (6.689)
4. Hideki Matsuyama (6.678)
5. Sungjae Im (6.585)
34. Francesco Molinari (1.384)
SG: Around-the-Green:
1. Aaron Baddeley (9.957)
2. Steve Stricker (6.133)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (3.424)
4. Matthew Fitzpatrick (3.376)
5. Anirban Lahiri (3.296)
45. Francesco Molinari (0.036)
SG: Putting:
1. Brendan Steele (7.262)
2. Sam Burns (7.207)
3. Pat Perez (6.925)
4. Francesco Molinari (6.795)
5. Rafa Cabrera Bello (5.828)
SG: Tee-to-Green:
1. Jason Kokrak (12.388)
2. Tommy Fleetwood (11.900)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (11.620)
4. Adam Long (10.888)
5. Byeong Hun An (10.156)
13. Francesco Molinari (6.496)
19
Season Winners (19):
7 winners were in their 20s
9 were in their 30s (Molinari age: 36)
3 were in their 40s
27
It’s been 27 events since the last pre-tourney fave/co-fave won on TOUR.
Most Recent:
Dustin Johnson (11/2): 2018 RBC Canadian Open
Rory McIlroy: The 29-year-old was defending champ and a pre-tourney 13/2 fave outright. Playing out of the final twosome and beginning solo 2nd, one back, he finished T6 on 8-under 280 (72-70-66-72), down four spots in R4 and four adrift. The Ulsterman, who has 14 TOUR wins, has never successfully defended a title. Since last year’s come-from behind win here, he’s been 2nd or T2 seven times, including in his last start at the WGC-Mexico and most notably, the 2018 Masters, with none of those resulting in victories.
API Form: 6-1-4-27-11
Season Form: 6-2-4-5-4-54
OWGR: 6th (no change)
FEC: 11th (up 4)
