Wells Fargo Championship
Charlotte, NC
Playing out of the final twosome, overnight leader and World No. 14 Jason Day fashioned a 2-under-par 34-35=69 on Sunday at Quail Hollow Club for a 72-hole tally of 12-under 272, good for a two-shot win over Aaron Wise (68) and playing competitor Nick Watney (69), and his 12th PGA TOUR title in 220 events.
The 30-year-old, a pre-tourney 20/1 outright, claims his second victory of the season in nine starts (P1, Farmers) and becomes the season’s fourth multiple winner, joining Justin Thomas, Patton Kizzire and Bubba Watson.
FUN FACT #1: Day was also a 20/1 outright at the Farmers.
This was his third Wells Fargo, first since a T9 in 2012, and records his third top 25. His scoring average is 69.75 with 10 (of 12) rounds in the red. The Aussie was the only player this week to record all four rounds in the 60s.
WFC Form: 1-9-22
Day also finished T9 at last year’s PGA Championship at Quail Hollow (more on that later).
Day’s Key Stats for the Week (ranking):
Putts per GIR: (1st)
Total Putts: 101 (1st)
SG: Putting: 8.25 (2nd)
SG: Around-the-Green: 4.96 (1st)
Scrambling: 24/31 (2nd)
Sand Saves: 15/16 (2nd)
Par-5 Scoring (T2)
Least Important Stat (ranking):
SG: Approach-the-Green (50th)
FUN FACT #2: Day is the first winner this season who didn’t rank in the Top 25 in SG: Approach. In fact, his 50th (0.119) is the worst by a winner since the beginning of last season.
Short Game on Display:
FUN FACT #3: Day is the first winner this season who ranked 1st in SG: Around-the-Green (4.962), and dating to the beginning of last season (48 ShotLink events), he’s just the third.
FUN FACT #4: Day’s 2nd-place ranking in SG: Putting (8.245) was second-highest this season (by a winner) to Rory McIlroy’s ridiculous 10.027 at the Arnold Palmer.
After kicking off 69-67-67, Day led by two over Watney, three clear of Wise who was in the third-to-last twosome.
He conjured six (of 14) fairways and eight greens in regulation, losing 1.431 strokes off-the-tee and 0.525 tee-to-green.
The Ohio resident squared four bogeys at holes 5, 6, 13 and 14 (tee ball in the water), outflanked by six birdies at 2, 7, 8, 10, 16 and 17, the latter two from 10'8" and 3'1", respectively, including a near-ace at the par-3 17th.
He posted a stellar 1.250 putts per GIR and 3.498 SG: Putting with just 22 total putts, 14 of those 1-putts. Day ranked 1st in three of those four putting stats in the finale. #PuttForDough
FUN FACT #5: Final Pairing: Both Day and Watney’s last win came in their 214th event. Only difference, for Day, that was six starts ago. For Watney, that was 125 starts ago. #BigDifference
Disclaimer: Day and Watney have battled injuries/ailments, including bad backs. Watney’s back, however, was worse, causing him to miss nearly all of the 2015-16 season to rest a herniated disc. (More on Watney later).
The win comes in Day’s ninth start of the season. He won the Farmers in start No. 3.
Season Form: 1-34-20-36-22-2-P1-11-11
OWGR: 7th (UP seven)
FedExCup: 2nd (UP 14)
After the win at the Farmers, Day finished T2 in his next start (two weeks later) at Pebble Beach. There was a five-week break between that and a T22 at the Arnold Palmer, and arrived off a T34 (of 36 teams that made the cut) at last week’s Zurich Classic teamed with Ryan Ruffles.
FUN FACT #6: The Top-3 finishers this week all played last week and finished T34, CUT and T31, respectively.
More importantly, Day is the 15th straight winner this season with either 0 or 1 week off prior to their wins. In total, 21 (of 27) event winners fall into this category. #NoLongLayoffsPlease
Final Leaderboard (pre-tourney odds outright):
1- Jason Day (20/1)
T2- Aaron Wise (150/1)
T2- Nick Watney (150/1)
4- Bryson DeChambeau (40/1)
T5- Phil Mickelson (25/1)
T5- Paul Casey (20/1)
T5- Peter Uihlein (200/1)
FUN FACT #7: For a second tournament in a row (excluding team-Zurich), both runners-up were 150/1 outrights. O’Hair, Mullinax at Valero; Wise, Watney this week.
In total, there have been four triple-digit winners this season (27 events), with Andrew Landry and Satoshi Kodaira going back to back at the VTO and RBC Heritage.
Lest we forget, Si Woo Kim won last year’s PLAYERS as a 400/1 outright and the Top-5 finishers were all triple-digit outrights. #FindTheValuePicks
Day’s Wins (12):
By Calendar Year:
2018: 2
2017: 0
2016: 3
2015: 5
2014: 1
2013: 0
2012: 0
2011: 0
2010: 1 (third season; 66th start)
2018 Farmers: Day, a past champ, came from two back w/ 2-under 70 and beat Ryan Palmer and 54-hole leader Alex Noren in a six-hole playoff (longest in tourney history) that extended into Monday morning (Palmer was eliminated after the first hole on Sunday).
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Playing his 11th straight season, Day has now recorded 65 top-10 finishes:
220: Starts
178: Cuts Made (80.9%)
8: WD (3.6%)
117: Top 25s (53.1%)
65: Top 10s (29.5%)
27: Top 3s (12.2%)
12: Wins (5.4%)
Breakdown of Day’s Wins:
10 stroke-play
7 as 54-hole leader/co-leader
3 wire-to-wire (in back-to-back-to-back starts)
3 come from behind
FUN FACT #8: Day is now 7-for-14 as 54-hole leader/co-leader, six for his last seven. His one misstep was the 2016 WGC-Bridgestone in his adopted home state of Ohio.
What’s Next for Day?
Of Day’s 12 wins, two have come in back-to-back starts:
2016 Arnold Palmer – 2016 WGC-Match Play
2015 PGA – 2015 Barclays
He’s also won two times with one start in between.
World No. 1:
Day has been World No. 1 three separate times for a total of 51 weeks, including 47 consecutive weeks. The first time came after the 2015 BMW, his fifth win in 2015, and most recently lost the No. 1-ranking after the Genesis in February, 2017.
When Day won the 2016 PLAYERS, his third straight wire-to-wire win, he was World No. 1. He didn’t win at all in 2017, dipping to 13th by year-end.
He entered this week No. 14 and is now up to No. 7.
Day’s stated goal/mission is to get back to No. 1. Doubt him at your own peril.
CALIFORNIA (?) ANGLE:
FUN FACT #9: Watney’s most recent runner-up was the 2015 AT&T Pebble Beach. Day’s most recent runner-up was the 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach.
FUN FACT #10: Day’s most recent win was the Farmers in California. Watney is from California, lives in Las Vegas, and Wise lived in California before moving to Vegas.
FUN FACT #11: Further, Bryson DeChambeau, who finished solo 4th, is from California, as is Phil Mickelson, who finished T5, and ranks 2nd in all-time earning at the Wells Fargo. #ImGoingBacktoCali
Revenge Angle:
Other than California, this was the angle.
At last year’s PGA at Quail Hollow, the most recent course data to analyze, Day was T3 after 36 holes (70-66). Out of the final threesome on Saturday, with co-leaders Kisner and Matsuyama, he finished bogey, quadruple bogey-8 for 77, dropping out of a tie for the lead to T16.
A par-par finish and he would’ve played out of the final twosome on Sunday. Instead, he played out of the ninth-to-last group. To his credit, he rebounded with 70 to finish in the top 10 (T9).
2017 PGA (at Quail Hollow) Angle:
The course was not near as penal for this week’s regular stop, but let’s compare top-10 finishers from the PGA that also played this week:
Thomas: Won / T21
Molinari, F: T2 / T16
Reed: T2 / 8
Oosthuizen: T2 / MC
Fowler: T5 / T21
Matsuyama: T5 / MDF
Kisner: T7 / MC
Day: T9 / Won
Stroud: T9 / T67
Field Scoring Average:
This was the 16th playing of the Wells Fargo, 15th at Quail Hollow and the first as a par 71. Last year’s edition was a one-time move to Eagle Point GC to accommodate the PGA.
Yardage: 7,554
Par: 71 (35-36)
Cumulative scoring averages:
R1: 72.83
R2: 72.50
R3: 70.37
R4: 71.97
Total: 72.13
Day: 69-67-67-69 for 15.674 SG: Total
Day’s Position by Round:
R1: T17
R2: T2
R3: 1
Leader/co-leaders by Round:
R1: John Peterson (finished T42): Drops to 0-for-1 as 18-hole leader/co-leader
R2: Peter Malnati (T34): Drops to 0-for-1 as 36-hole leader/co-leader
R3: Jason Day (Won): Improves to 7-for-14 as 54-hole leader/co-leader
Draw:
A total of 87 players from a field of 156 made the 36-hole cut of 3-over 145:
41 (of 75) EARLY/late; 3 WD
46 (of 77) LATE/early; 1 WD
75 players survived a second cut after 54 holes: 3-over 216
12 players finished in the top 10:
EARLY/late (6):
Jason Day (Won); Aaron Wise (T2); Phil Mickelson (T5); Paul Casey (T5); Charl Schwartzel (T9); Peter Uihlein (T9)
LATE/early (6):
Nick Watney (T2); Bryson DeChambeau (4th); Patrick Reed (8th); Emiliano Grillo (T9); Sam Saunders (T9); Luke List (T9)
*NOTE: Day ends a streak of three straight LATE/early winners at the Wells Fargo.
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15 (of 27) tourneys this season with a traditional draw:
Winners:
EARLY/late: 8 (Day)
LATE/early: 7
Low Rounds:
R1: 65: John Peterson
R2: 65: Bryson DeChambeau
R3: 62: Peter Uihlein; career low
R4: 66: Tony Finau
Bogey-free Rounds:
R1: Keegan Bradley (68); Sam Burns (69)
R2: Nick Watney (67); Vaughn Taylor (68); Shawn Stefani (69); Nick Taylor (70_MC)
R3: Peter Uihlein (62); Phil Mickelson (64); Talor Gooch (66); Luke List (67)
R4: Tony Finau (66)
Multiple Bogey-free Rounds: NONE
Runners-Up:
Nick Watney: As mentioned, the Fresno State alum missed nearly all of the 2015-16 season. He wound up making just five starts, nothing after February, and missed the last 29 weeks of the regular season.
Watney returned for the 2016-17 season with a T35 at the Safeway in his native California and made 14 of 23 cuts with five top 25s and finished 120th in the FEC standings. He had just one top 10, but that was at the Zurich teamed with fellow Las Vegas resident Charley Hoffman.
Watney’s last individual top 10 was T10 at the 2015 AT&T Byron Nelson three years ago this month. Also, as mentioned, his last runner-up was earlier in 2015 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Score: 10-under 274 (72-67-66-69)
Season Form: 2-31-20-32-32-59-33-47-26-58-50
OWGR: 101st (UP 160)
FedExCup: 66th (UP 68)
Chasing his sixth TOUR title in 339 events, first since the 2012 Barclays, the 37-year-old nets his fifth runner-up. He improves to 12-for-14 on the season with two top 25s, brushing aside a T20 at the Valero, and has now made 11 straight cuts.
This was Watney’s 13th consecutive WFC, eighth top 25 and third top 10, bettering a solo 8th in 2012.
R4:
7 (of 14) fairways
15 greens in regulation
4 birdies
2 bogeys
1.733 putts per GIR
2.834 SG: Putting
31 total putts
Watney capped with a birdie bomb from 58’10”. For the week, he tallied 18 birdies (T6) against two doubles and four bogeys, No. 1 in the latter stat.
Watney also ranked No. 1 in GIR at 81.94 percent (59/72).
Aaron Wise: The South African, who’s lived in the U.S. since he was three, was top debutant (of 31) and top rookie (of 18) with a career-best T2. It’s the second time this season in 17 starts that he’s been low rookie (T15, Pebble Beach) ß-There’s that California angle again.
He improves to 10-for-17 on the season with five top 25s, bettering a T13 at the RSM last fall.
Score: 10-under 274 (68-68-70-68)
Season Form: 2-MC-MC-32-41-68-33-MC-15
OWGR: 96th (UP 110); career high
FedExCup: 51st (UP 54); career high
The 21-year-old, a former NCAA Individual and Team champion (Oregon), is a one-time winner on the Web.com Tour (16 events), and a one-time winner on the Mackenzie Tour-PGA TOUR Canada (7 events).
Overall, this was his 25th event and second top 10, supplanting a T10 at the 2017 Shriners on a sponsor invite.
R4:
8 (of 14) fairways
12 greens in regulation
4 birdies
1 bogey
1.667 putts per GIR
2.067 SG: Putting
27 total putts
Wise canned a 7’8” par-saver at the last to secure the T2.
For the week, he tallied 19 birdies, T1 in that stat, versus nine bogeys.
North Carolina Angle:
Virtually non-existent. No top-10 finishes. Best was Charlotte resident Johnson Wagner’s T13 on a sponsor invite. That was his best finish and only top 25 in 12 tries. Chesson Hadley was next best with T16. Webb Simpson finished T21 but never contended.
Clemson Angle:
A little stronger correlation to former Tigers with Sam Saunders T7 and Kyle Stanley’s T13, but not much.
Past Champion Angle:
11 former champs this week, including Rickie Fowler and two-time champ (and all-time earnings leader) Rory McIlroy. A much-hyped Sunday pairing of the two (eighth-to-last twosome), produced nothing. McIlroy stayed where he began (T16) and Fowler dropped 10 places to T21 (with more doubles), but they were the best results of formers winners.
Picking a Winner:
Through 27 events (28 winners) this season:
8 winners were in their 20s
15 were in their 30s (Day: age 30)
5 were in their 40s
Day is the fourth straight winner in their 30s
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16 (of 28) winners had a top-25 finish the start prior (57.1%):
Day? No: T34 (Zurich)
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9 (of 28) winners had a top-10 finish the start prior (32.1%)
Day? No: T34 (Zurich)
55/1
Average winner’s pre-tourney odds outright (rounded). Last 10:
Day: 20/1 (Wells Fargo)
Horschel/Piercy: 40/1 (Zurich)
Landry: 125/1 (VTO)
Kodaira: 200/1 (Heritage)
Reed: 50/1 (Masters)
Poulter: 66/1 (Houston Open)
Watson: 50/1 (WGC-Match Play)
Garnett: 50/1 (Corales)
McIlroy: 16/1 (API)
Casey: 20/1 (Valspar)
