With the rate at which NHL goaltenders are falling by the wayside, I have vowed never to let my son don the pads in the event he becomes a hockey player. In just the past 10 days or so, injuries have befallen Brian Elliott, Corey Crawford, Semyon Varlamov, Robin Lehner and Jaroslav Halak, leaving fantasy players to wonder how they can capitalize.
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Let’s tackle the St. Louis situation first since it seems to be generating the greatest level of interest around the league. I’ll admit that I probably missed the boat entirely on Martin Brodeur as a fantasy asset this season. Even after it was announced that he had signed a contract with the Blues my belief was that he would mainly caddy for Jake Allen until Brian Elliott recovers from his ailment, but he’s clearly becoming a more prominent factor. After starting – and losing to Nashville– in his first start for St. Louis last Thursday, the future Hall of Famer was scheduled to sit out Saturday’s tilt with the Islanders, but instead he earned a win in relief of a struggling Allen. He followed that up with another start and another victory over the Panthers Monday so it’s anybody’s guess who will get the nod in Thursday’s game against the Isles. If nothing else, Brodeur has played himself into the mix for playing time, which is already more than I would have counted on him for. With an ownership rate of just 37 percent and a solid supporting cast to help him out, he’s worth an add in most formats.
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How many of you made a pitch to acquire Braden Holtby after reading my column last week? Those that did are smiling like a butcher’s dog right now as the Washington goaltender has posted a perfect 3-0-0 record since his mention in this piece and has registered a 1.67 GAA and .950 save percentage during that span. As I pointed out before, the advanced statistics tell us Washington has been more competent defensively than in past seasons so it won’t take an All-Star level performance for Holtby to be among the top fantasy netminders.
I’m a little puzzled as to why Calvin Pickard has only been rostered in 6 percent of Yahoo leagues as of Wednesday morning. It was announced Monday that Semyon Varlamov would likely miss “a couple of weeks” with his most recent groin ailment and I think Pickard pretty clearly outplayed Reto Berra the last time they battled for playing time in Varlamov’s absence. I recognize Colorado’s defensive shortcomings, but a starting goaltender – even for a limited period of time – has value in most formats, right?
Now that he’s on pace to register upwards of 60 points, it may seem that I whiffed when I predicted earlier in the season that Brayden Schenn would struggle to realize his potential this year, but I think a deeper look into the matter suggests I wasn’t all that wrong. Despite seeing regular ice time with the Flyers’ only scoring threats, Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek, the former Brandon Wheat King isn’t exactly setting the world afire with his scoring rate. Throw in the fact that he’s riding an unsustainable run of puck luck by scoring on 18 percent of his shots and I think it may actually be a prudent time to sell high.
This week’s check-in with our #goldenboy Cam Atkinson reveals that his ownership rate has fallen to 14 percent despite a solid week in which he posted three points, a plus-3 rating and four penalty minutes in three contests. Keep on believing folks, your day will come.
Is Matt Niskanen still someone that fantasy owners are counting on this season? His inflated ownership rate of 76 percent would suggest the answer to that question is yes, but I can’t imagine why. Not only does he rank eighth on his own team in terms of power play ice time per game, but there’s a clear delineation between the first and second units in Washington so his 1:17 per contest doesn’t provide much opportunity for upside. As a result, his scoring pace and rate of shots on goal per game are drastically lower than last season with no reason to expect a change. I can think of multiple blueliners I would rather own for fantasy purposes who carry lower ownership rates than him. To name a few, look to any of James Wisniewski, Dennis Wideman, Justin Faulk, Cody Franson or Jacob Trouba as replacements for the underachieving Capital.
Another defenseman I could have thrown into the group above is Florida rookie Aaron Ekblad, whose 52 percent ownership rate is rather comical given his performance thus far and his impressive pedigree. An examination of Ekblad’s full resume raises no red flags for me. His role alongside Brian Campbell on his team’s top power play unit is firmly established, as is his robust shot total, which has been strengthened by a recent 10-game streak in which he has registered two or more shots in each outing. That type of consistency is rarely found in NHL blueliners. The fact that he’s doing so before his 19th birthday is actually historic (hat tip: James Mirtle). Clearly, the fantasy community has been slow to react to his emergence, but that will change soon. Be ahead of the curve.
Bargain Bin Finds
As always, this space is reserved to highlight players owned in fewer than 20 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Rene Bourque (1 percent) – Both Bourque and Devante Smith-Pelly figure to see an increase in ice time with Corey Perry nursing a knee injury for the next month, but if Sunday’s game is any indication it’s Bourque who will receive the largest bump in power play time. He’s worth a speculative add in deeper leagues since he can just as easily be cut if he doesn’t take advantage of his opportunity.
Alex Tanguay (13 percent) – Perennially overlooked because of his perceived old age, Tanguay just recently turned 35 and remains productive primarily in points-only leagues. While your league-mates were gushing over Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Matt Duchene this fall you could have sneakily grabbed Tanguay and currently find yourself with a 50-point player who is basically free for the taking. His value in rotisserie formats takes an obvious hit due to his reluctance to garner PIM or shoot the puck on goal.
Reilly Smith (19 percent) – The shifty Bruins forward has seen his stock fall fairly consistently since the start of the year thanks to a prolonged slump that lasted for most of November, but he has shaken off the cobwebs of late with four points in his last two outings. Though not a household name, only David Krejci has averaged more power play ice time among Bruins forwards so there’s definitely a possibility of big things in his future. I fully expect his scoring to pick up again with his plus/minus inching closer towards last year’s shiny figure as the season wears on.
