We made it through another off season. It’s over, it’s really over .. it’s October!
Fantasy and simple hockey pools have been selected, poolies and GMs are all ready to go – with some tweaks and roster adjustments along the way.
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While most are focusing on box score statistics to start the season and kickstart the fantasy season, at this point I’m more interested in the available microstatistics. Entering a fresh new season, it’s on point to find out if teams are changing the way they play, strategically and tactically, which can change fairly sharply with an injection of new ideas and different players.
Corey Sznajder tracks individual zone entries/exits and passing – a pure treasure trove of information to sift through that will provide situational context, and in the hands of some skilled data analysts, paradigm shifting strategy.
I hope to touch upon more of these statistics characteristics and integrate them more into analysis in 2019-20. To begin, I’m going to focus specifically on an old favorite, zone entries and passing data. Control of the neutral zone is crucial for a positive game flow and controlled zone exits that lead to controlled zone entries are key drivers of skilled innovation off the rush in shooting position, rather than brute strength and forechecking to generate scoring chances.
Corey has tracked different amount of games for each team, ranging from a full 82 game schedule for the Philadelphia Flyers, down to a lowly 18 games for the Arizona Coyotes. On a side note, I have great expectations about the revamped Coyotes up front, adding scoring machine Phil Kessel and Carl Soderberg to a forward group containing some intriguing talent. Nick Schmaltz spent a great deal of time on the sidelines, but could be one of the more prominent names to emerge out of the desert in 2019-20. Kessel will help the power play, and in turn, Derek Stepan, who put up a disappointing three points at 5v4 in 2018-19.
For the purpose of this exercise, a paltry 18 games is not going to cut it as an ample sample size so I’ll be demonstrating using teams with over 30 games tracked, a list that includes 11 teams in all, with these teams in scope.
Zone Entry to Shot Generation
Research has definitively proven that carrying the puck into the zone is more likely to yield a shot on goal than dumped in pucks, requiring effort to retrieve before a shot is fired. Among this leading tracked group of teams, the Blackhawks reign supreme, carrying the puck into the offensive zone 59% of the time.
Zone entry effectiveness is only one singular component, however. The aim of getting into the zone with controlled possession is to set up and fire more potential attempts at a shot on goal from favorable position, which leads to goals, which leads to wins. Being efficient at entering the zone is less beneficial if a deficiency in generating shots exists. In the table above, the colors range from blue representing the highest carry in rates, and red the lowest shots per carry. Columbus, Florida and Pittsburgh all lead with 0.7 shots per carry, and with Washington the lowest at 0.56, but they all seem to fall into a distinct range. Teams will enter the offensive zone 80-90 times in a game.
Dump In Plays
Dumping the puck has morphed into more of a strategic maneuver than merely a method of getting pucks in deep. The trapezoid and implementation of more controlled zone entries has made the dump in part of the zone entry playbook. If there’s no hole to exploit on the blueline, placing it deep behind the defense, into the zone in an area that forces a rearguard to pivot, or creates a puck race, or gets into a favorable position for a 50-50 battle is more desirable than a botched entry at the blueline, sparking the transition the other way, while forcing the immediate reversal of momentum.
Teams that are able to harness the power of getting into the zone clean with possession, and can couple that with the ability to win back loose pucks placed into the offensive zone – well then, that’s a magnificent recipe for shooting success. The table showing shot generation off a dump in play is shown below with the same coloring scheme. It’s probably no surprise that the Boston Bruins tend to generate a great number of shots from a relentless forecheck and extended zone time.
When integrating shots per carry from the opposition, a fuller picture emerges on the strength of teams through the neutral zone. In the table below, Washington generates the least amount of shots on goal per carry, while limiting the shots against per carry defensively.
The Penguins are the most high event team among this list, generating as much shooting on their own carries, equivalent to the same amount of carries they allow from their own failed attempts at fending off opposition neutral zone play. Teams need to strike a balance here, with the intent of getting more shots off than allowing. The differential is telling us that a team like the Dallas Stars struggled to generate more scoring chances off a carry in play, and in turn gave up a lot of shots when they were unable to hold back the opposition at the blueline.
As the season rolls on and teams begin to generate more stable metrics I hope to integrate some of these valuations as well, to provide deeper context for tactical play.
Until then, thanks for reading and have a wonderful regular season 2019-20!
