With one match remaining, it seems safe to say that Week 2 was slightly less dramatic than Week 1. As an Arsenal supporter, I was paying particularly close attention to the match at Stoke City and hopefully my pain will help serve a useful guide for managers overreacting to early-season results. The headline here is that we don’t go completely mental when a team loses an unexpected match in late November because we have a lot of evidence of who they are already and we know there’s a lot more to come. Well, except for some rare exceptions – new arrivals to the Premier League and newly promoted sides – the same is true at the start of the season except that the evidence is from a different season.
It is easy to get especially frustrated at early results in the season. We’ve been waiting for the league to return. Displays of achievement – the table, stats charts, etc. – are broken up into seasons and all we have to look at is the early going. If that early going is disappointing, it is far too easy to take a look and make rash judgments that things we know from other seasons to be true are, in fact, false due to a small sample size which can be heavily influenced by luck.
Harry Kane hit the post with a fantastic shot against Chelsea on Sunday. One in and/or a little spin in the right direction and the narrative on Spurs at Wembley and Kane in August are probably much different.
Arsenal had an onside goal by Alexandre Lacazette disallowed due to a poor call and 2-3 very reasonable penalty shouts ignored. If the officials make even half of those calls in Arsenal’s favor rather than all four close calls going against them then they probably win 2-1 and while hardly dominant, they’re looking at a 100% record heading into their big match with Liverpool next Sunday.
The two places where it is OK to lean on a small sample size are with new arrivals and newly promoted players/sides. The only reason it is OK is that it’s really all we have to go on at this stage and, chances are, that you’ll have to make some tough calls early. Aaron Mooy looks like the real deal after two matches while Tom Ince looks like the equivalent of a AAAA baseball player (for those who aren’t into professional baseball, that’s a player who is dominant at AAA, the highest level of the minor leagues, but not quite good enough to make the leap to the majors as a significant player). Matt Ritchie and Anthony Knockaert both look to be similarly uninspiring despite exceptional Championship performances in 2016-17.
None of this is to say that these guys won’t find their footing and start producing but not only are the statistics good but I’ve seen between 90 and 180 minutes of each of the newly promoted sides and the concern is that, with the exception of Mooy and Mounie, there just aren’t many who pass either the eye test or the stats test after two matches. If you have room on a bench to be patient then, by all means, be patient. More likely, you need some productivity from your bench as the futures and, ahem, injuries to guys like Sanchez and Coutinho (plus the actual injuries to guys like Hazard) work themselves out.
As a rule, don’t overthink the things you know from previous seasons where the situation hasn’t changed significantly. Harry Kane struggled early last season AND he missed a stretch of matches AND he still ended up the golden boot winner. Do however, spend some significant time evaluating the “lottery tickets” you bought in the form of new arrivals. Look at the peripheral stats and at least start getting close to a judgment on whether they’re likely to be the player you thought they were going to be.
Arsenal
I have to admit that I’m confused by Arsene Wenger’s choices in the back early in the season. Yes, Laurent Koscielny has been suspended but on Saturday he had Mustafi, Mertesacker, Chambers and Holding who are all primarily center backs. Instead of playing some combination of three of them he picked Mustafi plus four wingbacks – Kolasinac, Monreal, Bellerin, and Oxlade-Chamberlain – to protect against a weak Stoke City attack. Shockingly, there were breakdowns from players who are all best suited to play some defense but mostly in the context of getting forward and contributing to the attack.
I’m certain that many will criticize the choice of formation after the goals allowed against Leicester City and the loss against Stoke City but, it feels more like a failure to choose the right personnel than any inherent problem with the formation. I’m a massive Sead Kolasinac backer but my excitement will be significantly reduced if he’s going to be deployed as part of the central trio rather than as the left wing back. At CB, his greatest two strengths, marauding forward and slowing wide attacks by bodying slight wingers off the ball, become useless. He was OK doing the actual defending part of the job but he certainly didn’t stand out which takes him from being a significant plus to being pretty “meh”.
Fantasy Stock Rising: Alexandre Lacazette (two goals in two matches! Wait, what, they haven’t gone back and retrospectively given him credit for a perfectly good goal? I’ll let you decide how much of that comment is ironic parroting of Wenger’s post-match comments and how much is serious bitterness because I can’t say I’m entirely sure).
Fantasy Stock Falling: Rob Holding was a very interesting sleeper as a starting CB in the back three trio. If his “loss of confidence” is more than a blip then what value he had as a sleeper may deteriorate quickly.
Bournemouth
In two matches thus far against unfrightening mid-table opposition – West Brom and Watford – Bournemouth have twice had the better of the possession. The problem in both cases has been that the Cherries have failed to convert that possession advantage to a similar advantage in shots, shots on target, and goals. Hero of the second half of last season Joshua King has yet to register so much as a shot on target. Ditto new arrival Jermain Defoe. We saw significant slumps from the Cherries last season and they still survived and has some stellar moments as well so it’s hardly time to write them off. The problem is that the start of the season looked relatively comfortable for a club that made some solid investments to try to build on a promising close to last season. So far, it isn’t working out at all well.
Fantasy Stock Rising: Benek Afobe was an afterthought with Defoe arriving but he got the start in Week 2. Not saying his stock is rising somewhere that you want him but that’s as close as I can find to stock rising after two losses by shutout with only four SOTs total.
Fantasy Stock Falling: Everyone really but King especially since he was likely drafted to be a no-doubt starter and he’s provided very little to back that up so far.
Brighton
OK, we said we’d hold our thoughts until the opposition moderated slightly. Well, Leicester City gave up 4 goals in Week 1 and yet Brighton barely registered a peep in a 2-0 loss. Like Bournemouth, it isn’t just that the goals haven’t been coming so much as there have barely been shots or even chances created. Albion has a total of five chances created (no more than one by any individual player) leading to a total of four shots on target and no goals. Lewis Dunk has half of the shots on target as a defender. That doesn’t scream “a breakout is coming” or “we’ve just had some bad luck”.
Fantasy Stock Rising: Hard to find any bright lights but Dunk is at least contributing in a lot of categories if you really want to squint for someone whose stock is rising.
Fantasy Stock Falling: Gross, Propper, Knockaert and Suttner are all looking dubious as even reserves at this point.
Burnley
After a fantastic Week 1 against the defending Champions Burnley nearly made it points in their first two only to be undone by the only shot on target that the Baggies registered. You could argue that Tom Heaton, after all of his heroics last season, at least COULD have had Hal Robson-Kanu’s shot to the short side given the angle that it came from and the quality of the forward. Those were the sorts of things that went right for Sean Dyche at Turf Moor last season but didn’t quite come off in Week 2. They will take heart from the domination of possession and the fact that they compiled 20 shots. The worry is that of the 20 shots they took from all that possession, none troubled the goalkeeper. Andre Gray isn’t a star but a replacement is definitely required after Sam Vokes came back to earth.
Fantasy Stock Rising: Robbie Brady is back to doing Robbie Brady things (creating chances and making successful crosses). None have led to a goal or an assist yet but he seems to be a starter this season and doing the sorts of things that will lead to those outcomes sooner rather than later.
Fantasy Stock Falling: Vokes, only because it was sky high and because Chris Wood has arrived for a record fee from Leeds United. He could partner Vokes but until we know how it will work out, Vokes is at least a risk.
Chelsea
Apparently, Marcos Alonso has had enough of hearing that Chelsea want to buy an expensive left back in the transfer market. His two goals powered the defending champions past Spurs in a match that Antonio Conte really needed after a rough summer and a miserable Week 1. The line-up that he started, with Willian and Morata the only two decided attackers, certainly points out some of the flaws the Blues have in depth. Even fully healthy, the trusted attacking three only has two subs with Willian presumably backing up both Hazard and Pedro and Batshuayi backing up Morata. Fabregas is primarily an attacking counterpart to new arrival Bakayoko and would require a formation change to deputize for either of Hazard or Pedro if both are unavailable again later this season. No wonder that the former Italy manager is calling for a versatile piece like an Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain who isn’t good enough to supplant any of the above group but can fit in and play a part at a few positions where the Blues are understaffed.
Fantasy Stock Rising: Alonso, between the two goals and the failure of the Blues to land a high caliber replacement/partner/deputy in the transfer market he could retain much of the value we were concerned he’d lose to a new arrival.
Fantasy Stock Falling: Hard to say anyone lost any value after the win against Spurs.
Crystal Palace
A third club that I’m trying to find bright spots for with little luck. Palace lost by a legitimate but slightly fluky goal by Sadio Mane but watching just the goal highlight doesn’t do nearly enough to credit Liverpool for their dominance against Frank De Boer’s side. The Reds dominated across the board with 72% of possession, 23 shots, and 13 shots on target. Credit to Wayne Hennessey for making 12 saves as his teammates were only able to manage 4 shots and 1 shot on target. Palace were more prolific against Huddersfield Town in Week 1 but a total of five shots on target after two matches isn’t a good look.
Fantasy Stock Rising: Hennessey had a huge match making 12 saves.
Fantasy Stock Falling: Christian Benteke has only a single shot on target after two matches and missed high on a shot that should have been a goal and would have earned his side a draw.
Everton
[UPDATE]: The Toffees stood very much toe-to-toe with Manchester City and their expensively assembled squad. The red card on Schneiderlin, like the one on Kyle Walker, was silly and will hurt the Toffees next weekend against Chelsea. Dominic Calvert-Lewin continued to be a revelation as one of the few Toffees with any pace. Unlike Tom Ince and Anthony Knockaert, very much fancied in fantasy circles as rising Championship players over the summer, Calvert-Lewin has done a great job of combining his speed and athleticism with some final product from the wing. His position may be at risk with Gylfi Sigurdsson coming into the side and Davy Klaassen (who didn’t start against City) unlikely to lose his spot soon given the fee paid. Sandro, however, or one of the three center backs, could lose out to Calvert-Lewin, especially against lesser opposition as Ronald Koeman looks to balance out slower players like Sigurdsson, Klaassen, and Rooney with some speed from DCL.
Finally, Rooney continues to be a revelation. It isn’t just two goal-scorer’s goals in two matches but the fact that he’s creating chances (4 so far) like it was the mid-2000s all over again. The eye test tells us that he’s not as physically dynamic as he used to be which is no surprise but he has a bunch of tricks that are allowing him to compensate for the decline of physical traits. We will have to see if he can keep it up over a full season but, so far, he has been as big a surprise as just about anything we’ve seen over two weeks with the exception of Huddersfield Town.
Fantasy Stock Rising: Hard to say if Gylfi Sigurdsson’s value rises or falls. We know he can be a stud as the focal point of a scrappy overachiever (see two stints at Swansea and Iceland’s Euro run) but we’ve also seen him struggle in a bigger side when he was at Spurs. Everton are somewhere between but will he get as much time on the ball with Baines, Rooney, et al taking more responsibility for set pieces and creating than anyone else did in South Wales?
Fantasy Stock Falling: Dominic Calvert-Lewin didn’t have a great deal of fantasy value until he popped up with an assist in Week 1. The arrival of Gylfi Sigurdsson probably puts him back where we all expected him to be on the bench. [UPDATE: This is still a real concern but Calvert-Lewin is doing enough to at least make it a real question for Koeman rather than an obvious benching for higher-priced players]
Huddersfield Town
Queue all of the fun Twitter takes on the Terriers. They’re the only team that is undefeated in their entire history in the Premier League. Mooy Bien! Mooy Bueno! You get the idea. Let’s just remember that Hull City were 2-0-0 last season at this point as well. I’m not suggesting that you jump off of the HT bandwagon because after 180 minutes Mooy, Mounie and company look like a competitive outfit. I’m just suggesting that we don’t go TOO overboard getting excited. Mooy’s shot gets flicked wide like Matt Ritchie’s similar effort did earlier in the match and the excitement over he and they wouldn’t be nearly as wild.
Fantasy Stock Rising: Mounie and Mooy were both already sky high coming off of the Week 1 win so this has to go to goalkeeper Jonas Lossl who has two clean sheets and nine saves after two matches. Look for a lot of waiver wire pick ups with Southampton and West Ham next up on the schedule on either side of the international break.
Fantasy Stock Falling: Tom Ince continued to look off the pace against modest opposition by Premier League standards.
Leicester City
The Foxes rebounded nicely from a disappointing opening weekend to pick up a solid 2-0 victory over an opponent they should beat. This is probably the right expectation for Leicester City after a historically overachieving 2015-16 and an underachieving 2016-17. So long as they keep hold of guys like Mahrez they should beat the Brighton’s of the world more often than not. Their first goal of the day was certainly fortunate but overall they were back to their fast-breaking best conceding possession but getting the better of the chances. Mahrez was the star with the Algerian international creating both goals. If they can keep him then a top half finish is certainly a reasonable expectation as he looks more like the player of two years ago than the one who was in a funk for most of last year after not getting his big move.
Fantasy Stock Rising – Mahrez is clearly a star if he stays but Okazaki (2 goals) and Mcguire (goal, assist, clean sheet) are the unexpected stars after two matches although expecting that pace to continue is wildly optimistic.
Fantasy Stock Falling – Hard to fault anyone here after a season that depressed expectations last term things seem to be climbing across the board for Leicester City on the fantasy front.
Liverpool
A significant improvement from the Reds from Week 1 to Week 2, especially on the defensive end. Andrew Robertson, Joe Gomez and Ragnar Klaven came in to a revamped defense while James Milner took Emre Can’s spot and Daniel Sturridge played in place of Mo Salah. That’s a lot of change to digest after one week. The hardest part of that much change is deciding what was done over fitness, what was done over performance and what was done as a message to players still considered first choice. Hard to see Salah being at risk but I had a couple of Twitter conversations about Milner’s prospects. On one hand, it’s great to see him playing as a midfielder while listed as a defender. That said, he seems like the 2nd or 3rd choice at left back and likely a 2nd choice in a couple of midfield positions. In the real world, that’s a fantastic option for Jurgen Klopp to have. In a draft fantasy world, it’s hard to justify keeping him on a short bench when he seems unlikely to start more than 20 matches.
[UPDATE: After I published it occurred to me that I failed to mention that the reason for at least some of Liverpool’s rotation was keeping powder dry for their Champions League qualification efforts in midweek. That said, assuming that they qualify, that could have some significant implications for what Klopp is likely to do on other weekends heading into Champions League matches in midweek. If key players like Salah are at risk for at least six weeks during the first half of the season for the group stages that is a significant drag on their fantasy value over a 19 match half-season.]
Fantasy Stock Rising: The initial returns on Andrew Robertson were very much positive. It’s too soon to declare him the starter but it’s hard to see him not getting additional chances based on his debut.
Fantasy Stock Falling: I was surprised to see Emre Can on the bench as well as Mo Salah. While I’m sure Salah will be a regular starter, I’m less convinced about Can especially if Coutinho returns to the fold and Wijnaldum and Milner are fighting for minutes next to Jordan Henderson behind Coutinho, Sane, Salah, and Coutinho.
Manchester City
[UPDATE] What a mess City were. Even if you stipulate that the red card to Kyle Walker was terrible defending Pep’s boys just weren’t very good. Sergio Aguero just doesn’t look quite right. His failure to take the shot from Kevin De Bruyne’s pass into the channel is Exhibit A. In previous seasons when we’d have considered him among the best forwards in the world he’d have taken that shot without the extra touch and far more often than not buried it. What’s worse is that City just look disjointed overall. Despite Pep’s reputation as a maestro once he has superior talent, this group looks like they’ve never met before. It would be foolish to write them off after two matches because we’ve certainly seen big clubs figure things out as the season progresses but if we agree that Everton are at least in the same conversation as the big clubs on an actual budget like Arsenal, Liverpool, and Spurs then it is worth pointing out that City started the season last year as flat track bullies against poor clubs. Week 1 was more of the same but yesterday certainly made me think of what we saw from City after Week 5 or 6 last season. They’re good but they hardly look as dominant as they should given the spending.
Fantasy Stock Rising: John Stones gets a second start in a row against Everton which is a solid start to a rebound season so long as City don’t land a Jonny Evans-like character at the deadline. Leroy Sane also got a start after coming on as a substitute which will have those who drafted him breathing a sigh of relief. [UPDATE: Danilo will presumably get a start for the suspended Kyle Walker]
Fantasy Stock Falling: Raheem Sterling on the bench again and Danilo drops to the bench as well. Not good signs for either. [UPDATE: Sterling’s goal underscores the issue with him for draft. His stats will look credible at the end of the season but you won’t know which weeks he’s worth starting]
Manchester United
Things are starting off well enough at Old Trafford to make us all recall Manchester City’s start to last season. It is so good that Anthony Martial, who we all thought would be somewhat marginalized, is already on a Giroud-like pace for substitute goals from last season. Mkhitaryan and Pogba are a dynamic force in midfield and Lukaku is there to knock in the goals. The attack has been good enough that the defense, shielded by Nemanja Matic, has barely been troubled to the extent that David De Gea has only been troubled to make a save twice over 180 minutes. As we start to think back to a Mourinho side that started out with similar flair and fluidity, his 2014-15 Chelsea side that won the title, maybe the biggest thing to remember is that started off the season scoring for fun only to cool off/play much less expansively after the first few months of striking terror into the hearts of Premier League defenses.
Fantasy Stock Rising: The stars are doing as much as could be hoped but Daley Blind and Anthony Martial are the players significantly outperforming pre-season expectations right now. Blind with the amount of playing time he’s been afforded and Martial with how efficiently he’s used what he’s gotten as a substitute. Juan Mata has also played significantly more than expected after two matches.
Fantasy Stock Falling: Ander Herrera is the big surprise thus far having failed to make a contribution thus far. Even if, as has been speculated, he will supplant Juan Mata in some of United’s tougher matches that doesn’t speak particularly highly of his potential from a fantasy standpoint if he’s going to be asked to do the dirty work while Mata comes in for the easier matches where the goals and assists are more likely to flow.
Newcastle United
A full quarter of the Premier League – Swansea, Palace, Brighton, Bournemouth, and the Magpies – have failed to score a goal after 180 minutes. Rafa Benitez’s men can take some solace in having their home 90 minutes against a top side and their away 90 in a celebratory atmosphere as Huddersfield celebrated their Premier League deubt. Still, when Joselu, who washed out of Stoke City who are desperate for forwards, is your answer as instant offense off the bench you’re in big trouble. Matt Ritchie continues to look like a AAAA player (see the intro for the reference) and I always worry about clubs who are moaning about lack of transfer activity. The worry is that such discussion creates a built-in excuse for both player and managers to give something less than their best because they’ve deflated expectations among both the media and supporters by essentially saying “we’re not good enough and we know it so don’t blame us when the results are poor, blame the owner.”
Fantasy Stock Rising: Not much to like here so far, really.
Fantasy Stock Falling: There was a lot of excitement for Dwight Gayle after his prolific season in the Championship but he’s barely sniffed the goal after two matches. Not a good sign for someone who has been cast as another AAAA player.
Southampton
After struggling mightily against Swansea the goals came against West Ham in the late 3-2 win for the Saints. The defense will be disappointed to have conceded twice to Javier Hernandez but a long-awaited contribution from Manolo Gabbiadini, a penalty from Dusan Tadic and late penalty from Charlie Austin along with an assist from Nathan Redmond will have fantasy managers feeling at least somewhat better about the Saints fortunes. The only concern after having seen West Ham play twice this season is that it could be as much about the Hammers being bad at the back as it is about the Saints having refound their mojo.
Fantasy Stock Rising: It was nice to see Gabbiadini take his opportunity after a long slump and Tadic’s stock will be on the rise if James Ward-Prowse is on the bench leaving set pieces to Tadic.
Fantasy Stock Falling: James Ward-Prowse started on the bench which was a worry last season and will continue until he gets a long run of starts one of these years.
Stoke City
I wrote an analysis of Jese’s arrival at Stoke City that wasn’t particularly optimistic about his prospects of being a worthy fantasy option. My concern was based mostly on the ability of Stoke City to create sufficient opportunities for their newest former starlet looking to revive his career. Nothing about Jese’s history indicated that he should be expected to create his own opportunities. That said, having watched him against Arsenal, he looked the part of becoming the dynamic fulcrum who could, very well, elevate what the Potters are doing going forward and setting a new bar for the number of opportunities available for all. We certainly need to see what he can do against a club that deploys more than one recognized center back but the early returns were very promising.
Fantasy Stock Rising: Jese (see above) plus Saido Berahino (!) got the assist and looked like he might have found a partner who can help unlock the skills that have been dormant for a few years.
Fantasy Stock Falling: Xherdan Shaqiri. Another muscle injury. Can’t say we’re surprised but what little value he had because we knew this was a possibility is called into question because it is now reality, not just probability.
Swansea City
They ran into a buzzsaw that is Manchester United right now without their two best attacking players from last season and no real upgrades anywhere else on the pitch. They got what you’d have expected.
Fantasy Stock Rising: Not much positive to take from this one.
Fantasy Stock Falling: Not really. They were just outclassed. Nothing that should impact how we look at a modestly talented side going forward.
Tottenham
To what extent is Wembley in the collective heads of the Spurs side? There were nice moments including a blazing shot from Kane that hit the post but not the sort of sustained pressure and excellence that marked Spurs, especially at home, last season. I’m not a big believer in the notion that the atmosphere or even the size of the pitch makes an actual difference but I’m open to something like that being in the heads of the players. I’m also completely in on the notion that being without Rose and Walker, who were particularly influential when Spurs were at their high-flying best last season, is having an impact. Trippier and Davies are excellent deputies but they are deputies none-the-less. I don’t necessarily believe in either Walker or Rose as being exceptional players overall but I believe they are/were fantastic in Spurs’ system. Being without those two difference makers pressuring the outside while Alli, Eriksen, Kane, and company pressure down the middle is a big deal.
Fantasy Stock Rising: No one has played better than expected thus far this season.
Fantasy Stock Falling: Nothing yet but as a Son owner in a couple of leagues I’m at least marginally worried that he didn’t start against Chelsea. If it goes to a third week where he doesn’t start I’ll be really concerned.
Watford
I’ve been on the Marco Silva bandwagon since his run at Hull City last season and was looking forward to seeing what he could do with an actual Premier League squad at Watford. So far the returns are good with a draw against a top four contender and a solid win on the road with a clean sheet. Richarlison built on a great substitute appearance in Week 1 with a goal. Good news all the way around for the Hornets.
Fantasy Stock Rising: Richarlison was the clear star of the show among the mostly unknown new arrivals with a goal from two shots on target and three chances created. He’s going to be owned in your league soon if he wasn’t picked up after Week 1.
Fantasy Stock Falling: No one to downgrade at this point. The news is pretty strong from Vicarage Road.
West Brom
Speaking of unfancied clubs who are off to a great start, welcome back Pulis Ball. A second consecutive 1-0 win on the back of a surprising scorer has Albion off to a great start to the season. Pulis likely won’t be able to count on either Hegazi or Robson-Kanu for goals too often but with Jay Rodriguez not up to the opportunity yet and the other likely goal-scorers not contributing yet this feels like at least four bonus points getting wins from unexpected sources.
Fantasy Stock Rising: Hegazi gets a second clean sheet to go with his winner from Week 1 and then the news comes that Jonny Evans may be on his way to Manchester City freeing up a potential CB spot on a regular basis. Could be some serious value there.
Fantasy Stock Falling: Jay Rodriguez failed to register a shot on target in his second outing for Albion.
West Ham
Well, the attack looked better with Michail Antonio back and helping Chicharito get on the score sheet for the first and second times as a Hammer against the Saints. The defense, however, has been a bit of a disaster. Rumors that William Carvalho could be arriving from Portugal might have some opportunity to change that formula but there are too many players at the back who look frail or too old to do the job.
Fantasy Stock Rising: Chicharito and Antonio were already highly drafted so their stock isn’t really up but at least managers are getting what they paid for after missing out from both (for different reasons) in Week 1.
Fantasy Stock Falling: If the goals are going to be shipped at this rate then Joe Hart’s stock is going to just keep dropping.
Just a note for those who have read the column in past seasons, I’m sure you’ve been waiting with baited breath for me to announce my “Second Team of the Season” (i.e., the club whose story I like enough to make them 2nd in my heart to Arsenal for the season). Usually, I’ve waited until sometime in late September to make a decision but I’m going in early for Watford. I like Silva, I like Richarlison, and I’m pretty excited to follow them this season and see if they can outperform expectations on the way to Silva getting a shot at a bigger club in the next season or two.
