The change from using the last six weeks of data to using the last eight weeks of data may have paid dividends, since we’ve been performing well lately. This week, we got seven of the top 10 defenses correct, including moving the Titans up into the top ten when Rashee Rice was ruled out. That feels pretty good to have a hit like that.
We also hit with the Bills, Vikings, Saints, Texans, Ravens, and Rams. Now, it wasn’t a high-scoring week, so a lot of these plays didn’t smash, but we also expected that going in, since a few of the really bad defenses had good matchups. This is the time of year when I am more than happy to take the good defense in a mediocre matchup than chance the streamer in a good matchup. There is still too much on the line to put bad players into your starting lineup, whether that’s at WR or DST.
At this time of year, in addition to overall talent, you really want to be looking at injuries and motivation. Injuries, as we saw with the Chiefs, can drastically change a team’s outlook, and I do my best in this article to cover the big ones, but also the impactful ones on the offensive line, etc. We also need to keep an eye on motivation. With so many playoff seeds locked up, you’re going to see some veterans who are dealing with injuries have their snaps limited or some eliminated teams start to get extra reps for younger players who they want to evaluate. It’s always best to trust a team that has something to play for.
As a final reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2025 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 16: 7-3
SEASON-LONG: 86-74
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.
To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula (EPA allowed is in a small decimal point, hence the heavy multiplication):
((PRESSURE RATE x 1.5) + (TURNOVER RATE x 2)
MINUS
(EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (3rd DOWN CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED X 0.5) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE))
I then add that total to the team’s fantasy points per game over the last eight weeks, since fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points. I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to account for injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.
With that out of the way, onto the rankings.
FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.
DST WEEK 17 RANKINGS | |||
| Rank | Tier One DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
The Steelers are an unusual top defense for me because they don’t rank highly in a bunch of metrics. Over the last two months, they rank 5th in turnover rate and 15th in opponents’ scoring rate, but not inside the top 15 in any other stats. However, they’ve also averaged 9.4 fantasy points over that stretch and are playing a Browns team that is giving up over 10 points a game to fantasy defenses over the last month and will now be without their starting running back, Quinshon Judkins. I’d feel a lot better if we knew T.J. Watt was going to play because Sheduer Sanders has been taking a ton of sacks, but I think the Steelers, who have a chance to clinch the AFC North with a win, will show up to take care of business. We should also note that, with the Giants and Raiders playing each other, the Browns have a chance to lose and then jump up to the second pick in the draft. That’s motivation to not come away with a win here.
The Broncos defense struggled a bit on Sunday against a strong Jaguars team, but they do not get a strong team here with the Chiefs seemingly phoning it in for the season. We don’t know if Rashee Rice is going to clear concussion protocol, but we do know that Gardner Minshew is out with a knee injury, and the Chiefs put three starting offensive tackles on the IR this month. With the Chiefs turning to Chris Oladokum at quarterback, I think you can feel confident in playing a Broncos defense that ranks 7th in pressure rate, 10th in third-down conversion rate, and 10th in EPA per play allowed over the last two months, while averaging a modest 7.6 fantasy points per game.
The Patriots defense has really struggled with Milton Williams on the IR, and then they also lost defensive tackles Joshua Farmer and Khyiris Tonga to injury on Sunday night, so this will be an injury report to watch. I’d love to see Williams back this week because the Patriots are averaging only 4.6 fantasy points per game over the last two months. Yet, over that stretch, they still rank 9th in pressure rate and 12th in opponents’ scoring rate, and now get to face a tanking Jets team that will start Brady Cook under center again. The Patriots need to win this game to keep their grip on the AFC East title and also remain in contention for the number one seed in the AFC, so I expect to get their best effort against a really bad opponent.
| Rank | Tier Two DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
All of these defenses are higher ranked in my BOD rankings than the defenses in the tier above, but their matchups are all worse, so they get shifted down into tier two this week. However, I think each of them is dependable enough to rely on in the fantasy football championship.
The Texans may have the hardest matchup of this group, but the Chargers have allowed six fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month, and they have not played a defense like the Texans. Over the last two months, the Texans rank 2nd in the league in pressure rate, 3rd in EPA per play allowed, 3rd in opponents’ scoring rate, 8th in third-down conversion rate, and 10th in turnover rate while averaging 9.8 fantasy points per game. I think they could push eight or more fantasy points in this one, and I’m gonna roll the dice with a good defense.
That’s also what I’m doing with a Seahawks defense that ranks 2nd in the league in opponents’ scoring rate, 4th in third-down conversion rate, 5th in EPA per play allowed, 6th in pressure rate, and 7th in turnover rate over the last two months. They are the top defense in fantasy over that stretch, averaging 10.2 fantasy points per game. Now, the Panthers have not been as good a matchup of late, as they allow just 2.7 fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. Over that stretch, they faced the Bucs, Saints, Rams, and 49ers though, and only one of those units (the Rams) is a truly strong defense. I don’t quite believe in this Panthers offense, but maybe they’ll continue to prove me wrong this weekend.
The Jaguars faced the Colts three weeks ago in a game in which Daniel Jones got hurt and put up 10 fantasy points. Obviously, things are a little different now, and Phillip Rivers has actually looked better than I expected, but he still doesn’t have mobility in the pocket and can make some poor throws with his reduced arm strength. That might be a big issue against a Jaguars defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in EPA per play allowed, 7th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 11th in turnover rate over the last two months while putting up 9.1 fantasy points per game. The Colts also lost starting center Tanor Bartolini to a concussion on Monday and lost starting guard Dalton Tucker to a shoulder injury. If those two guys can’t go, the Colts would be down three starting offensive linemen, which would be a problem against a Jags team that has a shot to earn the top seed in the AFC.
Over the last two months, the Rams rank 2nd in the NFL in turnover rate, 11th in opponents’ scoring rate, 11th in EPA per play allowed, and 12th in pressure rate, but have put up just 7.0 fantasy points per game. They are now facing a Falcons team that is allowing seven fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. This has all the makings of a boring performance that sneaks into the back of the top ten.
FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.
| Rank | Tier Three DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
The Ravens and Packers game is an interesting one to rank on a Tuesday because both Lamar Jackson and Jordan Love left Week 16 with injuries, so I’m not entirely sure if either one of them will play. On top of that, Josh Jacobs is clearly hurt, and the Packers are sitting pretty for a playoff birth, so it remains to be seen if they want to put him out on the field this weekend. All of that makes me a bit more confident in playing the Ravens because I think Jordan Love’s concussion could be harder to overcome than the back bruise that sidelined Lamar. Over the last two months, the Packers rank 8th in pressure rate and average just 5.3 fantasy points per game, while the Ravens rank 1st in the league in third-down conversion rate, 4th in the NFL in turnover rate, 8th in EPA per play allowed, and 9th in opponents’ scoring rate while averaging 9.4 fantasy points per game. If you give that defense a game against a backup quarterback and running back, I think you get a top ten performance.
The Browns have consistently been a solid defense this year. Over the last two months, they rank 1st in the league in pressure rate, 6th in EPA per play allowed, 8th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 11th in third-down conversion rate, but are only averaging 7.4 fantasy points per game, in part because their offense keeps putting them in bad spots. I expect that to continue this weekend, and the Steelers offense has been much better of late, averaging 5.3 fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses this month. However, I’m ranking them here under the impression that DK Metcalf’s suspension will be upheld. I think that has a huge impact because it takes away any real receiving threat for the Browns’ defense to have to focus on.
Man, it’s really hard to trust a Bucs defense that has let us down in every plus matchup over the last month and is averaging just 2.9 fantasy points per game over the last two months. Yet, they will get a start against Quinn Ewers that we should love. The Dolphins also put guard James Daniels on the IR and are already without multiple starting offensive linemen. That being said, it’s hard to feel overly confident in the Bucs based on the way they’ve played, but they have the NFC South title on the line over the final two weeks, so you have to figure that they show up for this one.
The Saints have been a really strong fantasy defense of late, ranking 3rd in third-down conversion rate, 7th in EPA per play allowed, and 10th in opponents’ scoring rate over the last two months, while averaging 8.0 fantasy points per game. That being said, the Titans are allowing just 4.5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month, so this is no longer a great matchup. I get the logic behind playing the Saints, but it’s not a slam dunk spot, and the same can be said for the Titans, who rank 11th in pressure rate over the last two months. Still, they average just 5.7 fantasy points per game and are dealing with injuries to starting cornerback Marcus Harris and starting linebacker Cedric Gray after Sunday’s game. The Saints are allowing just 8.0 fantasy points per game over the last month, so this also isn’t a slam-dunk spot either.
The Lions’ defense has been really banged up and really bad, averaging just 3.4 fantasy points per game over the last two months. Still, they may get to face Max Brosmer this week, which you have to at least take notice of. If J.J. McCarthy were cleared to play, I’d likely move the Lions down into the next tier because that’s how bad they’ve been as a defense, and they are now all but eliminated from the playoffs, which could impact the snaps for banged-up players like Alim McNeil, Avonte Maddox, and Amik Robertson.
Over the last two months, the Chargers rank 2nd in the league in third-down conversion rate, 4th in opponents’ scoring rate, 4th in EPA per play allowed, and 6th in turnover rate, while scoring a solid but not extraordinary 7.9 fantasy points per game. Yet, the Texans’ offense has been humming and is only allowing 2.5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. It’s hard to trust the Chargers’ defense with a fantasy title on the line.
Yes, I know the 49ers offense has been playing really well, but so has this Bears defense. Over the last two months, they rank 1st in the NFL in turnover rate, 5th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 12th in EPA per play allowed. Yet, they are averaging only 6.6 fantasy points per game, so they have been hard to trust. The key here will be the 49ers’ injury report since there is a chance that both George Kittle and Ricky Pearsall will miss this game with injuries. If that’s the case, I would move the Bears up a bit.
| Rank | Tier Four DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
I understand people will have the Giants and the Raiders ranked higher than this, but those defenses are among the eight worst fantasy defenses, according to my rankings, and I can’t trust a defense that’s been that bad with the season on the line. I understand the logic, and I know that a big play could put them into the top 10, but that’s just not a roll of the dice I’m going to make at this stage in the season.
The Bengals rank 3rd in the NFL in turnover rate over the last two months and are averaging 6.6 fantasy points per game. That’s solid, but Arizona is allowing just 6.0 fantasy points per game over the last month, so this just doesn’t feel like a top ten spot. Same for the Dolphins, who rank 6th in opponents’ scoring rate and 7th in third-down conversion rate over the last two months, but are playing a Bucs offense that is allowing just 4.3 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month.
The Eagles and Vikings are both defenses that are playing well, but find themselves in bad matchups. Over the last two months, the Eagles rank 1st in the league in opponents’ scoring rate, 1st in EPA per play allowed, 5th in pressure rate, and 12th in third-down conversion rate while averaging 8.9 fantasy points per game. But they are going into Buffalo to face a Bills offense that’s allowing 2.3 fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. Over that same two-month span, the Vikings rank 3rd in the league in pressure rate, 6th in third-down conversion rate, and 9th in EPA per play allowed, but have averaged just 6.8 fantasy points per game and get a bad matchup against the Lions. I would avoid this one.
| Rank | Tier Five DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
Each week, Tier 5 will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
