What a crazy season. At the top of the table, we have more drama than any season I remember. Another “Aguerrrrrooooo!!!!” final day is still on the table as is another Gerrardian slip. With four clubs still fighting it out for the last Champions League spots, there could be a similarly exhilarating or soul-crushing moment still to come from one of those four as well. Perhaps the most interesting feature of the second half of the season has been the emergence of a pretty well-defined third tier of clubs consisting of Wolves, Watford, Everton, and Leicester City. All four of these sides, while not exactly nipping at the heels of the big boys over the course of the full schedule, have proven to be formidable opponents, regularly taking points from their more-talented rivals up the table. With the possible exception of Wolves, it is hard to see a path to any of those four breaking the current Champions League hegemony but it is refreshing to have a full ten sides that could pick up a result against any other side in the league on any given weekend.
With draft leagues coming to a close with the end of the season, I’ll kick off the column with some recommendations for this weekend’s waiver wire. Injuries continue to mount with the defenders union being particularly hard hit between Antonio Rudiger going out for the rest of the season while Jan Vertonghen, Eric Bailly, and Chris Smalling also succumbed to injury while Ainsley Maitland-Niles will be out due to suspension after picking up two yellow cards in the loss to Leicester City. Marcus Rashford and Romelu Lukaku are also questionable while Anthony Martial seems to be in the doghouse (again). That’s a lot of big names potentially missing and, with only two match weeks left, a lot of players who should/could be dropped in favor of the immediate gratification of players who are much more likely to play over the final to weekends.
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Looking ahead to those two final weekends, here are the teams to seek out and the teams to avoid over the final two matches are (with comments):
- Manchester United (@HUD, CAR) - They have injuries and aren’t playing well but face one historically bad, already relegated side in Huddersfield Town while the other is the odds on favorite to be the third team to go down. With the desperation of a faint hope of Champions League qualification still on the table, whomever United can field should be of significant interest.
- Crystal Palace (@CAR, BOU) - The Eagles have been playing well down the stretch and get two matches that should allow them to finish with a flourish. The first could easily be a clean sheet while the second seems likely to have some goals for both sides (and certainly the home side).
- Southampton (@WHU, HUD) - They’re officially clear of relegation but two wins against beatable opponents would be a great springboard heading into an important summer in their quest to regain their status as a well-run club entrenched in the middle of the table.
- Arsenal (BHA, @BUR) - The problem with putting Arsenal here is that they’ve been turning matches that they should be favored in into losses just as the top four was in their grasp. The home tie with Brighton will be complicated by Albion fighting for their Premier League lives while any test on the road is tough at this point for Arsenal and Burnley are playing well after a miserable start to the season. Tread cautiously betting on the Gunners despite the schedule being relatively kind.
- Manchester City (LEI, @BRI) - Not exactly a cake walk against chippy Leicester City but given how good City have been, it is as much down to the distance between them and each of these two opponents than Leicester City being objectively mediocre.
- Leicester City (@MAC, CHE) - Brendan Rodgers has been a breath of fresh air at the King Power Stadium but the last weeks won’t be kind as two teams with more talent and more to play for arrive.
- Brighton (@ARS, MAC) - Not exactly the way you want to close out a season where you’re fighting against relegation. They should be safe but only because...
- Cardiff City (CPL, @MAN) - The Bluebirds have to win both matches to stay up and it isn’t going to be easy given their opposition. United could still be playing for a potential Champions League spot on the final day if Chelsea slip up on either day.
- Everton (BUR, @TOT) - The Toffees have closed the season with some promising play in an otherwise inconsistent season. Their opponents in Week 37 have been excellent in the second half of the season taking points from Manchester United, Spurs, Wolves, and Chelsea as they pulled themselves firmly onto safe ground after a relegation pace in the first half of the season.
- Huddersfield Town (MAN, @SOU) - Chalk this one up to a combination of a poor team and at least one desperate/more talented opponent and another who is also at least somewhat more talented and will be playing at home. You’ve probably been staying away from Terriers players for most of the season and there’s no reason to stop that now.
The Aaron Ramsey Conundrum
After seeing Avengers: Endgame late last week and realizing that Aaron Ramsey came to Arsenal as the first MCU movie (Iron Man) was debuting, it seems appropriate that Ramsey gave a nod to so many of the hallmarks of his career just like so many of the original Avengers in the movie. I won’t spoil anything from the movie but suffice it to say that we got a lot of opportunities to enjoy some Marvel nostalgia as they brought this momentous story line to a close. We had nods to famous lines from previous movies and, as if feeling the moment, Aaron Ramsey has given us a little bit of everything over this season in homage to his entire Arsenal story arc. He was slow getting started this season. His role and best position weren’t clear for much of the first half of the season. He came on and provided some real highlights showing everyone why he was such a highly touted recruit when he arrived. Then, just as things looked like they were really going to go well, he got injured and helped to undermine the end of an Arsenal season. If that isn’t the story of the past 11 years of Aaron Ramsey‘s time at Arsenal, I don’t know what is. Just as it was easy to write that Manchester United should make Ole Gunnar Solskjaer the permanent manager when they were on their winning streak, it was easy to malign Arsenal for not resigning Ramsey while he was playing well in February, March, and April. In both cases, it would have been an overreaction. United are now being questioned (and rightly so) for their overreaction while Arsenal should at least get some credit for not pushing more scarce resources into a midfielder with a decidedly up-and-down track record even if his best is something that they really could use.
The Third Tier
As I mentioned in the introduction, one of the more interesting aspects of the second half of the Premier League season for me has been the emergence of Wolves, Watford, Leicester City, and Everton as a pretty clear third tier. Perhaps the most interesting thing about this group is that they appear to be more dangerous playing above their station than below it. Wolves are certainly the clearest example of this but all four sides have had a big impact on the race for the top four over the past couple of months and the introduction of four more teams that can provide challenging opposition for the big six hardly a week goes by without there being at least one fascinating match at the top of the table. Looking ahead, here are some thoughts about how each of these “next four” are looking heading into the summer:
Wolves - I wrote about them before and I think there’s a real chance that they could challenge for a top six spot if they can keep their side largely together and add just one or two ingredients capable of helping them improve against teams that “park the bus”. What they lack is a player who can create on his own in tighter spaces. These are hard players to come by but with Jorge Mendes on the case it isn’t impossible to think Wolves could attract one on his way up the European football food chain.
Leicester City - The Foxes have quietly transformed themselves from the veteran-laden team that won the title into a young, exciting group. Two caveats. Jamie Vardy is going to age at some point unless he turns out to be the footballing equivalent of Keith Richards and Youri Tielemans isn’t guaranteed to return after his load expires after the season. Tielemans has been fantastic and a failure to bring him back would be a significant bump in the road. Recruiting a potential 20-goal striker has always been a challenge for all but the biggest sides in the Premier League so how and when the Foxes replace Vardy will be the long-term key to maintaining their current elevated status.
Everton - The biggest question with the Toffees is consistency. Marco Silva has shown that, at his best, he can inspire some excellent performances. He has also shown that he can lose the plot for long stretches. Like Leicester City, Everton will face two big questions over the summer (as well as some minor ones). André Gomes is at Goodison Park on loan and his work this season will certainly have other clubs interested in prying him away from Barcelona. Richarlison‘s name continues to come up with bigger clubs and the failure to keep him will put Everton right where Leicester City are in trying to replace Vardy albeit for different reasons.
Watford - The Hornets could still bring home a trophy this season even if their Europa League chances from their league position were severely dented when they lost to Wolves over the weekend. Perhaps the most encouraging thing for Watford supporters is that there doesn’t seem to be a ton of interest in their players from bigger clubs. The whole is more than the sum of the parts which means that the parts are likely to be available again next season. If the Pozzo family scouting network can find another Gerard Deulofeu-type player or two, meaning one that didn’t quite make the grade as a youngster at one of the biggest clubs in the world but can still mature into an above-average Premier League player, then they could jump closer to seventh and continue to trouble the big boys on a regular basis.
The fascinating thing for all four of these clubs as well as others who aspire to where they currently sit (looking at you Crystal Palace, Newcastle, and Bournemouth) is that there will likely be some serious chaos at two or three of the big clubs in the Premier League. Manchester United will probably throw out some good players with the bad. Chelsea will likely change managers again leaving the possibility that some good players are available as the new manager looks for something slightly different. Heck, even Real Madrid is talking about casting off some big names who could be affordable for a mid-table Premier League club given the crazy TV money the league is making.
As the season winds down, it will be fascinating to see how the key races unfold and then, based on who is playing in what competition next season, how the transfer market evolves in a summer when there won’t be a massive international tournament to get in the way of the transfer drama.
