The close of the transfer window, even a relatively tepid one like the one we just experienced, always provides some intrigue as well as a good opportunity to remind ourselves of some of the important lessons to winning draft fantasy leagues.
The first of these rules is that, as always, talent is important but it is nothing with out availability and opportunity. Callum Hudson-Odoi is, by all accounts (especially those at Bayern Munich), a talented prospect and someone who you’d want to consider adding to the back end of your draft fantasy squad...IF THERE WERE ANY CHANCE HE WAS GOING TO PLAY REGULARLY. If Hudson-Odoi had gone out on loan somewhere down the table, he’d probably be a high priority waiver wire add right about now. instead he’s going to sit out the rest of the season on the bench at Stamford Bridge and maybe play some mop-up minutes in the league and some cup competition minutes as well.
This is just as important as we consider the draft value of the major arrivals yesterday. By reputation (presumably based on talent) the priority would probably go Denis Suarez, Michy Batshuayi, Youri Tielemans, and Miguel Almirón. The problem with using that rating or some approximation like a WhoScored rating is that those things don’t include the notion of opportunity and positional value.
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If you’re asking me, and if you’re here reading you are, then I’d rate their value over the rest of the season as follows: 1) Batshuayi; 2) Almiron; 3) Tielemans; and 4) Suarez. Why? It’s all about opportunity, not necessarily overall talent.
Crystal Palace and Newcastle are in dire need of goals and the acquisitions of Batshuayi and Almiron respectively represent a serious effort to change their attacking fortunes. Batshuayi gets the nod because he plays a position, forward, where high level production is scarce. Everyone in an 8-team league should have at least one strong starter at forward but few teams will have two or three that are more productive than midfield counterparts. Batshuayi will start regularly and, if he can replicate his work at Borussia Dortmund last season, will be someone you want to start regularly. Palace aren’t Dortmund as an attacking side but with a competent center forward pushing Zaha back into a wide role, there are the makings of a potentially potent attacking force.
The challenge that fantasy managers are going to have to get over with someone like Almiron is where he comes from. Arriving from MLS rather than from La Liga or Serie A certainly lends a “who is this guy?” element to the evaluation. Like players coming over from the Eredivisie, there is the potential to look at the stats (21 goals and 28 assists in 62 matches over the past two seasons including an MLS Cup championship) and be dismissive due to the big leap in quality between leagues. Perhaps I’m biased but I’ve seen Almiron in person a couple of times and he looks every bit the sort of player who is going to make the leap. He played for a manager in Tata Martino who knows the game at the highest level and I’m sure Rafa Benitez consulted with Martino before making Almiron Newcastle’s record signing. Almiron plays an all-action game and he’s going to be in the middle of everything that Newcastle does between now and the rest of the season.
Belgium international Tielemans is an excellent purchase for Leicester City, the only question is whether he can come into a midfield that is sitting mid-table and displace a veteran. I love the move for the long-term with Tielemans and Maddison the basis for a strong midfield for years to come. The other concern with Tielemans is that he’s typically played more at the base of midfield than at the point of it meaning that he’s playing a position that is notoriously mediocre at producing fantasy points unless that player also takes penalties.
Finally, we arrive at Suarez who, on the surface of things, was the most talented player who arrived in the Premier League yesterday. Even if he couldn’t break through at Barcelona, that’s hardly an indictment. Lucas Digne, until his 11 minute red card in mid-week, has been a fantasy revelation at Everton after washing out at the Camp Nou. The concern with Suarez is how often and where he is going to play. This feels much more like getting a replacement in for Aaron Ramsey for next season than it does like recruiting a sure-fire starter for the rest of this season. With Ozil, Mkhitaryan, Iwobi, Ramsey, and Xhaka all wanting minutes in the more attack-oriented roles in midfield and Aubameyang and Lacazette looking like they’ll be partnering at forward as regularly as they’re healthy, there just aren’t that many minutes to go around for the new guy. Suarez might be a revelation but he’s going to have to adjust to actually playing after three seasons of relative inactivity and then get past a bunch of other players to secure a starting spot. I’d suspect he’ll see his share of starts over the final three and a half months of the season but he won’t start regularly enough that you’d want to displace a signifiant starter or prioritize his waiver claim over someone like Almiron who is going to play as often as he’s healthy.
Don’t Get Over-excited
One other thing that I think it is worth mentioning here as you start making decisions on these shiny new signings entering the Premier League and your draft waiver wire and that is not to get carried away with the possibilities. In one of my leagues, one of the managers was so excited about the possibility of picking up Higuain that he dropped Mitrovic to make it happen. Look, I’m all for taking a run at a player with the potential upside of Higuain if he recaptures the form he had under Sarri at Napoli. What I’m not willing to do is drop the 8th most prolific forward in the PL.com scoring format to do it. There’s an element of bird-in-the-hand here that you have to consider. If you have a stacked squad or a stacked position group then just leave well-enough alone. None of these guys is a sure thing. Batshuayi, for all his success at Dortmund, has been a disaster at Valencia and Palace have struggled to score all season. Almiron is making a big leap and could just not be up to the Premier League (or take five or six matches to adjust which is a third of what remains of the season). Tielemans is young and making a move up in competition. Suarez didn’t make the grade at Barcelona and maybe doesn’t make it at Arsenal either.
Other Random Thoughts
Spurs Quiet Window. There have been a lot of hot takes on Spurs and their failure to bring anyone in during the transfer market both over the summer and in January. The pro-Spurs argument is how well they’ve done bringing through young players and team-building on a budget. The anti-Spurs argument is usually no more sophisticated than “yeah, but they haven’t won anything” or “they don’t give out awards for excellent accounting”. As it should be, the right answers lie somewhere in-between.
Yes, Spurs have been fantastic at bringing through youth. The problem with that model is that we’ve seen others, like Southampton, who have depended on that channel to acquire talent stumble in a huge way when even a year or two goes by without a “hit” from the youth ranks. It is a massive risk to count on the kids coming through every season. As I wrote earlier in the week, this also feels very tied to Mauricio Pochettino sticking around.
The flip side of the graphic that NBC Sports (and I’m sure others around the world) showed about how modest Spurs’ net transfer budget has been in recent years compared to their big six opponents as well as how little they’re spending on wages. It is a testament to how well they’re running their organization right this minute. The problem is that it also points out the extent to which they’re going to have problems in the future. If they’re not willing to pay serious wages and spend big on transfers then the sort of players they’re going to need aren’t going to arrive and the ones that they have aren’t going to stay. THAT is where the “they haven’t won anything” argument comes into play. Players will be willing to stay with a manager they love for lower wages if they’re winning things. If they have to see their peers at international training camps and promotional events, etc and be embarrassed that they both make less money AND aren’t winning everything then it isn’t going to be long until they’re asking to go elsewhere to at least take care of the money side of the equation.
Arsenal Lack of Defenders. I do have to admit to having something of a Wenger flashback this week. When Unai Emery was asked about bringing in a defender in the window and he responded by saying that they wouldn’t because if they were ever all healthy there wouldn’t be any room for the newly acquired player. That’s just terrible logic. You know for a fact that Bellerin and Holding are out for the season and that both Koscielny and Sokratis are both injury-prone. When, exactly are you anticipating that everyone might be healthy? At the least go out and find a couple of Holding-like options who are young and inexpensive that Emery can begin preparing to take over once Koscielny and Sokratis hang them up in a year or two. It is also shocking that there was no right back available anywhere on loan that could be an improvement over the calcifying Stephan Lichtsteiner and the still-learning-and-not-really-a-right-back Ainsley Maitland-Niles. A CB would have been nice too but a right back on loan to cover Bellerin’s absence seems like a no-brainer given that a top four spot is very much within reach at this stage of the season.
The Relegation Zone - One interesting facet of the slow transfer window is the relative lack of action at the bottom of the table. Newcastle signed up Almiron on deadline day and Palace picked up Batshuayi but they’re in 14th and 15th respectively so hardly the clubs that should be the most scared of relegation. With Huddersfield Town almost certain to be relegated, there seemed to be some level of sentiment that clubs were willing to roll with what they had a bank on being able to outduel their fellow strugglers. Southampton brought in no one. Fulham tried a couple of minor tweaks including one free (Babel) and two loans (Nordtveit and Markovic). Cardiff City brought in Naisse and tried with Sala only to see that move end in tragedy. Burnley brought in the 200-year-old Peter Crouch. Ultimately, no one pushed all of their chips into the middle of the table in an attempt to avoid relegation at all costs. You might very reasonably argue that this makes a great deal of financial sense but it is surprising given how much money is at stake that more money wasn’t spent on trying to secure another season of Premier League football (and cash).
