Welcome back for another round of FPL captaincy debate!
Well, a haphazard season in a haphazard year continued on last weekend with some very disappointing results for yours truly and then, as the buildup to this week got going, I quickly sobered up and was reminded how I need to approach the fantasy game this season: refrain from beating myself up over bad luck. After working toward a goal of bringing in Jamie Vardy for last weekend was met, the results could not have been much rougher.
If you read last week’s column, perhaps you recall my transfer plans. 2 FTs saved up and a downgrade two rounds previous to afford Vardy. I felt I could not take out Harry Kane, he’s the top scorer in FPL (at the time), is a weekly captaincy option, and hey, I’m a Spurs fan. Dominic Calver-Lewin could be taken out...but how, with the consistent production he has so kindly provided me? Nah, only one forward I felt could afford to make way, and it came a week after he was an injury no-show - Callum Wilson. I had faith in Newcastle enough to bring in the nicely priced 4.3m Jamal Lewis and start him with positive effect (as part of the downgrading plot to afford Vardy), but a captained Vardy still scored less than just keeping Wilson. It was a tough pill to swallow...and then the AVL v NEW news broke...
Right, so as of this writing, Covid outbreak has postponed the Aston Villa versus Newcastle United match this weekend. Remember how I said I had just brought in Jamal Lewis? Emiliano Martinez is my only playing keeper. Great. Jack Grealish is unavailable. The transfer plans to bring Vardy in resulted in entering this coming deadline having only one free transfer, no cash in the bank, and Max Kilman looks to maybe have lost his place at Wolves. My squad, at this very moment, is a disaster. The Vardy plan resulted in a red arrow, and now I have no way to improve things without using a chip.
Twice this season I made a transfer pickup of a forward to captain against Fulham. Both were at home. Raúl Jiménez for Wolves and Vardy for Leicester. The two combined for one assist. I don’t even want to look up the top scorers for Fulham’s opponents this season but it feels like I picked the only two weeks where captaining against Fulham blew up in my face. Meanwhile, I got to reminisce about the many weeks I had Riyad Mahrez in my side, returning me nothing, only to go ballistic over the weekend. Having no Kevin De Bruyne or Bruno Fernandes hurt. But before I even I had proper time to mourn my misFortune, this postponed match news broke and I could not help but just toss my arms in the air and laugh maniacally, much to the dismay of anyone within earshot.
I have no idea how I am going to handle this weekend. It would be nice to find out that the postponed match will still fall within this round, played during the next midweek. But if that news is not confirmed before the FPL deadline, well, I think this is a Free Hit week. I have always saved chips like this for double gameweeks, and this season will likely have more double gameweeks than ever because of Covid...but, at the same time, I have no clue if this season will or won’t be interrupted again due to the pandemic. I could wind up holding on to chips I never have a chance to use. This is all to drive a point home. Are you having a frustrating fantasy season, compounded by a rough reality in 2020? Well, join me in not allowing this season to drive you crazy. Make it fun any way you can. Team value has lost its importance over the years, but it’s completely irrelevant now. Waiting until the last minute to use your transfers or chips is in your best interests. Try your best but understand one’s “best” this season comes with an asterisk, whether you finish top 100 or sub-5 million. Right, I feel a little better just releasing some of that frustration. I have four names on the shortlist this week, so let’s dive into Captain Obvious for Round 11...
Bruno Fernandes (10.9m)
Rostered % - 39.9% (rising steady)
Total points - 74 (7 Gs, 4 As, 12 BPs)
Opponent - West Ham (away)
Bruno is racking up the stats. He had his third straight double-digit fantasy return last weekend, showing that he can, indeed get it done at home. In the last five weeks, only one person has supplied more key passes (Jack Harrison, surprisingly) and only one has take more shots (fellow Leeds star Patrick Bamford). So the volume has been turned all the way up for United’s playmaker. Now owned by what will be over 40% of the league come this weekend’s deadline, it is becoming less a question of whether or not he deserves a place on your roster, but whether or not he should be your captain. I am half-joking, half-serious when I say this: I do not have Fernandes in my side at the moment, so in my mind, until he IS in my side, he is going to continue to put up big numbers.
This will be an interesting matchup regardless, however. West Ham United find themselves, ten weeks into the season, just a point off a Champions League spot. They have conceded only eleven goals in those ten games. This matchup looks even when you see Manchester United a point behind the Hammers but with a game in hand. It really is a tough one to call, and maybe that means a draw is the likeliest outcome, but will it be 1-1 or 3-3? My gut tells me it’s a low-scoring draw, but United find the net and Fernandes is involved.
Mo Salah (12.2m)
Rostered % - 27.7% (rising steady)
Total points - 73 (8 Gs, 2 As, 7 BPs)
Opponent - Wolves (home)
Saying it has been a topsy-turvy season to date would be a massive understatement, but you have to give me credit for making a very specific call last weekend. I said that no one was more due to get an assist than Mo Salah and, though he only had one on the season entering last weekend, I had the nerve to GUARANTEE an assist against Brighton and, by golly, he did assist Liverpool’s lone goal. However, it was not an otherwise impressive display from Salah or the Reds in general, with Diogo Jota providing a bigger threat recently than Salah, Sadio Mané or Roberto Firmino. It was a thin stat line against a Seagulls side they should have handled. Only one key pass for Salah, though it did result in the assist, and only one shot taken, not hitting the target.
So backing Salah this weekend will come down to whether you believe in his reputation and the last game was an aberration, not a sign of things to come. Well, Liverpool’s attack lately has been a bit concerning. Following up the Brighton result, they could only muster one goal in their midweek tie with Ajax, and that goal was from a link in play between Neco Williams and Curtis Jones. And this was not a weak XI. Salah, Jota and Mane all started. Taking on a Wolves side very similar to West Ham in terms of defensive matchups. Both of these sides have conceded eleven goals in their first ten games, very respectable. So, how has Salah performed in this fixture? Well, the two league games against Wolves last season say him play 175 of a possible 180 minutes, and did not have an attacking return. The home fixture was a 1-0 affair. At Anfield two seasons ago, the Reds won 2-0, but Salah started again without a return, so if history versus opponent weighs into your captaincy decision-making process at all, Salah may give you some pause this week.
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Jamie Vardy (10.3m)
Rostered % - 29.3% (rising steady)
Total points - 66 (8 Gs, 3 As, 10 BPs)
Opponent - Sheffield United (away)
There was no “Vardy Party” last weekend, at least, not the kind of party I was expecting. It was more of a Vardy Casual Get-Together, as Leicester dropped three points at home to lowly Fulham. This was the late-late Monday match which was on from about 3:30-5:30am locally for me, so even with my captain going, I was never going to stay up for this one. In hindsight, thankfully I did not. I could only chuckle when I woke up on Tuesday and see the scoreline. Curses, foiled again, as the saying goes. Why is it whenever I watch Fulham, their defense is always abysmal. Heck, last weekend, a miscue and a lack of sharpness from the opening whistle saw the Cottagers concede in the first minute against Everton. You mean to tell me Leiecester could only crack the defense once, and it took 86 minutes to get there? Yeah, sleep was a much better choice.
Luckily, I had no vested interest in staying up to see the Foxes play their Europa League match. That game saw them lose and not manage any goals against Ukranian side Zorya Luhansk, who, I believe isn’t even in the FIFA game. Now, to be fair, this game I haven’t seen even highlights of, though the scoreline would suggest there were none. What is important though is that Vardy was wrapped in plastic, kept out of the matchday squad entirely. So we cannot blame him for falling into a funk. Further good news out of a bad result - the return of two key players for Leicester, as Ricardo Pereira and Wilfried Ndidi both started and played short shifts, coming out apparently no worse for the wear. This should help Leicester in several ways, though it is not certain either of these regulars will start the weekend or if Brendan Rodgers gives them more time after significant layoffs.
So is this weekend’s matchup as promising as it sounds, playing the club dead last in the table? Well, it should be. Interesting note - if you want a stat that sums up this season to date, the Blades have a better defensive record than Liverpool through their respective first ten games. And yet, the promoted side last year captured our hearts continues to suffer massively from a lack of offense and a defense that has yet to keep a clean sheet. Last weekend’s matchup with the Baggies was a must...do-something for Sheffield United, but they lost 1-0. The same scoreline they have seen in half of their ten games to date so far. This is, again, another opponent this week that could put up a defensive fight, not get bowled over for three or more goals. The hope for Vardy backers is, even if another 1-0 is in store, that “1” belongs to Vardy and that would likely bank him an additional three bonus points.
Kevin De Bruyne (11.7m)
Rostered % - 21.4% (rising steady)
Total points - 39 (1 G, 5 As, 4 BPs)
Opponent - Fulham (home)
Despite a personal downer of a fantasy round it was for me, I have to say I made another sharp call on de Bruyne and, more to the point, City attacking options in general last week. I said this is the City option to captain because there is a lot of uncertainty in Pep Guardiola’s team sheets lately, even by his standards. Some were hoping for Aguero to return - he didn’t. Some backed Raheem Sterling all the way - he did not even feature. Some were looking for salvation through Jesus, Gabriel Jesus that is. Well, he did give managers five points, but in a game where City wins, 5-0, a five point return from their striker seems like a loss. So yes, unless your crystal ball is working overtime and you felt confident in backing Riyad Mahrez last weekend, then you should be feeling pretty happy with the two-assist return from KDB.
So here we are again, I hate to even say it - it is time to pick on Fulham. Okay, okay, forget everything I’ve ever said about Fulham. Just look at the matchup for what it is - City finally had their attack explode for a bunch of goals for the first time this season. If the cobwebs have been shaken off, a very kind run of fixtures could see the Citizens fly up the table and drop mad goals along the way. They SHOULD rip the Cottagers apart for at least three here. Captaining KDB in a spot like this is as rational a move as one can make. There really is no “downside” here, only that ever-present demon known as “Bad Luck” lurking around the corner. No KDB in my side at the moment has me leaning more and more to doing the Free Hit chip. I WILL get a big armband return from someone playing Fulham...one day.
Other options - KDB will, in all likelihood, not be the only Citizen to put up a big score this weekend, so there is another captain or two among City somewhere, but I simply do not see the risk/reward working out trying to out-guess Pep Guardiola. I suppose if I had a second choice, it would be Jesus. Then again, Sterling’s chances of being passed over for consecutive matches are slim, he would be the perfect candidate to explode just when people began to ignore him. It’s a Catch-22. Like I said in the intro, I want you to find any way you can to make this season fun and if playing Pep roulette is your bag, then you do you.
Chelsea are at home to Leeds and this is going to be a tough one to call, despite fixture difficulty measures saying this is an “easy” matchup for the Blues. It should make for an intriguing tactical showdown between managers, the veteran Marcelo Bielsa clashing with the year-younger-than-me Frank Lampard. I do think Chelsea win this, but it’s tough to tell if it will be tight or lopsided on the scoreboard. And what to do about Oliver Giroud? Dude had a four-goal game midweek...surely that deserves consideration for start, at Tammy Abraham’s expense. Timo Werner and Hakim Ziyech seem the most “dependable” attacking players here but if I had my choice, I just might opt for Ben Chilwell over all others. It just feels like he is going to find points on one side of the ball or the other.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin blanked last week, but he is by no means off my radar. In fact, I am probably being unfair to him. Had he found the net last week, he would surely be on the short list, continuing his run of form and matched up against a struggling Burnley side. But, he did blank, and we are still in that trustworthy honeymoon stage with him. It’s a bit funny - I had DCL on the shortlist last week, remarking how he had all the other Everton regulars heathy, making him more of a legit option. Well, news of Lucas Digne missing out last weekend did not come to light until after I had written my article. I still stand by my assessment. Digne will not play, so I knock DCL down a notch. When all the parts are in place, DCL works his way back onto the shortlist.
Finally, my Spurs, taking on Arsenal in the North London derby. I will be watching this from behind my couch, just taking intermittent peeks at the tv screen from time to time. It is too much to bear. I mean, my Spurs are top of the league. But Spurs are Spurs, so naturally this derby is going to break my heart, right? Well, it may in reality, but I will not allow it to happen in fantasy, so all bets are off for me personally backing Harry Kane or Heung-Min Son for the armband. But hey, they are the top scorers at their respective positions to date. If you believe that quality and proof of production is all that matters, then by all means, back of these guys this weekend. I will be rooting hard for your success, I promise you.
Hit me up on Twitter @FuzzyWarbles and let me know your thoughts on who you’ve nominated for captain and why. Good luck with your selection this weekend and may your arrows be green.
