So, what do you do when exactly nothing surprising happens over the course of the first nine matches of a given match week? The big boys, at least the four who have played ahead of press time for this article, all won. The other matches, while certainly not “predictable” in terms of their outcomes finished in ways that very much fit the narrative of what we’ve witnessed over the first six weeks of the season.
It was mildly interesting to see Wolves return to form with a home victory by clean sheet after having rotated more than we’re used to from Nuno Espirito Santo. Ryan Bennett, Rúben Neves and Diogo Jota are the players who made way and, at least for Neves and Jota, it seems like their places may be at least in some question after more than occasional rotation over recent weeks.
Jota had an unreported foot injury after the Crystal Palace match, a match in which he scored the late equalizer so it couldn’t have been too tragic, and Nuno Espirito Santo decided to keep him out of the squad to rest it despite not mentioning him as even questionable in his press conference. Presumably, Jota will be available and starting again come this Thursday’s Europa League match.
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Neves, however, is a more curious case. As Wolves were coming up, the rumors were about Neves possibly being a massive money target for some of the biggest clubs in the world. Wolves lived up to and exceeded most of the hype last season but Neves, for his part, wasn’t an obvious contributor either as a defensive destroyer nor as a deep-lying playmaker. His proficiency as an outside-the-box goal-scorer is his most noticeable positive but the subtle aspects that can make a holding midfielder while not necessarily showing up in the box score haven’t really shown themselves in just over a year in the top flight.
If you view Alonso or Pirlo as the recent ideal of deep-lying passers. Michael Carrick along similar lines as an organizer or action and tempo. Claude Makelele and N’Golo Kante hold similar esteem when it comes to shielding the back line by winning the ball back before it gets to the rear-guard. If those are the ideals it is hard to see where Neves fits into that picture in the top flight.
Don’t get me wrong, Neves isn’t BAD across any of those dimensions. The question, though, is whether he actually excels at any of them either. Even in Wolves promotion campaign, Neves’ first as a full-time starter at age 20, Neves wasn’t statistically dominating in any of the categories that would correspond with being the next of any of the above icons of holding midfield. Statistics certainly aren’t the end-all and be-all when it comes to holding midfielders but, in this case, it also matches the eye test. It is rare that Neves is notable when you watch Wolves play.
Perhaps the excitement with Neves was more based on potential given his status as a 20-year-old playing such an important position for a team that exceeded expectations. Perhaps he’s just going to take more time to mature into the type of player who deserves the sort of hype we saw surround him last summer. Regardless of the reason, Neves struck me as an interesting topic after a weekend that saw so little in the way of surprises to be commented on to open the column.
The Title Race
Liverpool certainly got lucky, didn’t they? Those wearing Reds-colored glasses will suggest that title-winners manage to find a way to pull out a win when they aren’t playing well while those with a decidedly sky blue tint to their eyewear will rejoice at the vulnerability shown by their title rivals even if it didn’t result in any dropped points this particular week. As you might expect, the truth lies somewhere in-between. In the short-term, Liverpool’s ability to pick up three points from an incredibly unimpressive effort is a great thing. In the longer-term, they’re going to drop points if they keep playing this poorly.
Perhaps the other thing that we should focus on is the ability for Pep to rotate while Jurgen Klopp continues to roll out essentially the same side each week. Pep rested Sergio Agüero and both Bernardo and David Silva at the start of the match at Everton and the train kept rolling. The Premier League season, especially for those teams who play late into all four major competitions, is a war of attrition and the fact that Pep has quality depth in the attack that Liverpool isn’t THAT useful at this early stage of the season but giving guys like Aguero, De Bruyne, and David Silva the occasional break will certainly pay dividends when the second half of the campaign comes around.
City have, rightfully, been called out for their short-handedness at center back after injuries to Laporte and Stones but it wouldn’t take much for Liverpool to have the exact same concerns going forward if one of Salah, Firmino, or Sane were out for a significant period of time. Divock Origi has proven a capable deputy but there’s only one of him and he also hasn’t had to prove it in more than spot duty.
The Big Surprise
The big surprise is that there really wasn’t any big surprise. Crystal Palace have been a pleasant surprise and continued to build momentum with a 2-0 victory over Norwich City. If you look at the result as Palace beating a team that beat Manchester City then, yes, it counts as a surprise. If you look at the Canaries’ win over City as a combination of good Fortune and Norwich City’s ability to fast break against a side that pressed the attack at every opportunity then it is less surprising. Palace understand their limitations and Roy Hodgson has retreated into tactics to keep matches close and play organized defense. They aren’t quite Sean Dyche’s Burnley but they’re closer to that than they have been and it is serving them well against teams that bring an all-out attacking mentality. We’re seven matches into the season and Palace are already well on their way to safety from relegation. If you’re looking for a surprise this early in the season, that might be the bigger than Pukki-mania so far.
The Weekly Arsenal
The Gunners don’t play their match until later today so there’s nothing new from Week 7 as fodder for this section. Instead, I’m going to focus on the excitement of the mid-week victory over Nottingham Forrest. For those who like poking fun at Arsenal and its supporters, the punchline is easy. “Look how fall they’ve fallen that there is excitement over an early-round Carabao Cup match over a lower division foe!” And I get it. This isn’t exactly the sort of bit you write about Manchester City or Liverpool or Barcelona.
For those who take the realistic view that Arsenal are a club in (too long) a period of transition, then the positive stories are ones that help us see actual progress in that transition rather than the “more of the same” that characterized the end of the Wenger era. Midweek definitely gave some reason for hope.
The Wenger era certainly had its share of big league cup wins delivered by talented youth with potential to break into the first team. That part is not necessarily new nor am I letting myself get carried away by the performances of teenagers in pre-season or cup matches. What was encouraging from that match-up, though, was the return of Rob Holding and Héctor Bellerín with a goal and an assist respectively in addition to a clean sheet and the Arsenal debut of Kieran Tierney who was the man of the match from at least some outlets.
Now, I’m of the school of thought that the defensive issues are only partially due to the actual defensive players and partially due to issues farther up the pitch and how the manager has chosen to deploy the players. That said, the arrival of potential upgrades at three of the four defensive positions, even if Unai Emery seems bound and determined to stick with Granit Xhaka who seems to be at the root of a fair amount of Arsenal’s issues, is a big plus.
We don’t know for sure if Kieran Tierney will be an immediate upgrade once the level of competition goes from Nottingham Forrest to Manchester United or if Rob Holding and Héctor Bellerín will be back to their pre-injury form or if it will take a little while and a few mistakes to get there. Still, Tierney has been a highly ranked target for multiple Premier League sides and his debut did nothing to dissuade us from the notion that he’ll be an upgrade over the departed Nacho Monreal and the still-present-but-better-as-a-wingback Sead Kolasinac. Bellerin and Holding have proven their ability in the Premier League before so, with so much of the season left, it seems likely that they will be able to make a significant impact on the outcome of the season even if it takes them a little while to be back to their absolute best.
Now, if only Emery would just cop to whatever blackmail material that Xhaka has on him and allow himself and the club to move on and try some line-ups that don’t involve the Swiss international as they look for a formula to avoid any and all opponents from charging through whatever defenders are available like they weren’t there.
My Other Favorites
I already covered Wolves in the opening and will only add that I’m definitely not over my worries after a single win, at home, against the bottom team in the league. It was definitely a move in the right direction as a loss or even a draw would have been pretty demoralizing but a strong performance against City next weekend and then a run up the table after the international break are still necessities.
Over to my other pre-season, non-Arsenal favorite story, Leicester City. That went pretty well, didn’t it? Without James Maddison from the start due to a minor injury, they scored first and then, with a man advantage crushed Newcastle 5-0. Dennis Praet wasn’t exactly up to Maddison’s level of quality but he showed enough to be considered quality depth. Similarly, Marc Albrighton, a former starter, has found his perfect role coming off the bench. He could certainly be a starter further down the table but he has looked very lively attacking tired defenses late.
If I were Brendan Rodgers, I’d be very pleased with my depth right about now. I’d certainly be looking out for a center back or two to draft in behind Coyuncu and Evans. Coyuncu is going to have some suitors as soon as this summer and, as of right now, Wes Morgan is a nice option for a late-game substitute but I wouldn’t want him to start a bunch of matches in the event of an injury.
I’m a big fan of buying at least one transfer window ahead of a big sale as the Foxes did with Coyuncu (ahead of the Maguire sale). Brendan Rodgers finds himself in the enviable position of being able to plan for the future in his transfer dealings as his present looks pretty darn good. As he’s doing that, he might want to look around for his next center forward (speed-based players in their 30s tend to decline pretty rapidly) as well.
Fantasy Ups and Downs
After each weekend, I’ll update players whose fantasy stock is up or down based on what we saw over the weekend.
Stock Down: Tom Heaton – Two clean sheets at home have helped his results look at least adequate but with Norwich City (away), Liverpool, and Manchester City among his next four matches this isn’t prime time for having Heaton in your squad.
Stock Up: Roberto – With Lukasz Fabianski leaving injured over the weekend, Roberto has a solid chance of being in net when the Hammers host Crystal Palace for Week 8. West Ham’s defense has been much better than in previous seasons and Palace are sure to play it close to the vest so a clean sheet is certainly a possibility in the short term. Fabianski should certainly be back after the international break so this is a short term play only.
Stock Down: Arsenal’s early-season starters – With Holding, Bellerin, and Tierney all returning sooner rather than later, it is time to start looking for replacements for Sead Kolasinac and Ainsley Maitland-Niles and (probably) Sokratis if, for some reason, any of them are in your fantasy squad.
Stock Up: Aaron Cresswell – Another start and another goal. Arthur Masuaku wasn’t even on the bench at Bournemouth despite his suspension having been completed so one would assume that Aaron Cresswell has won the left back job at the London Stadium for now at least.
Stock Down: Benjamin Mendy – The excitement over Mendy getting a start certainly didn’t last that long, did it? Zinchenko was back in the starting line-up over the weekend with no injury reported on Mendy. Not great news for Mendy’s prospects as a regular starter.
Stock Up: Fikayo Tomori – Antonio Rüdiger still isn’t back to full health but Tomori is making his case to partner the Rudiger once he has recovered. He has started four straight matches and looked good doing it.
Stock Down: Dele Alli – Spurs used all three substitutions on midfielders meaning they played seven midfielders (eight if you consider Son a midfielder) in a close match against Southampton and none of them were named Dele Alli. In a related note, there have been no reports of any injury concerns related to Mr. Alli. Yikes.
Stock Up: Tanguy Ndombele – He has scored or assisted in three of the four Premier League matches he’s started so far this season. Small sample size? Yes. Promising results from that small sample size? Even more so. If he’s hanging around on waives, pick him up ASAP!
Stock Down: Manuel Lanzini – Didn’t play in the win over Manchester United and only came on as a substitute against Bournemouth. The Hammers have a lot of attacking midfielders and while I’m surprised that Lanzini is losing playing time, that appears to be the case so evaluate replacing him accordingly.
Stock Up: Ayoze Pérez – He needed that after failing to record a goal or an assist in his first six matches for Leicester City, Perez finally looked like a fluid part of the attack. His history is one of fantasy points running hot and cold so look for a run of strong output.
Stock Down: Luka Milivojovic – Yes, he scored another penalty but he also won the race to be the first player suspended for accumulation. Five yellow cards in seven matches is impressive work. That means that he’s already given back the points he got for the goal this weekend. He’s on 20 total points over seven matches and half of them came this past weekend. It doesn’t look like he’s going to replicate last season’s output, huh?
Stock Up: Jorginho – A goal and two assists over seven matches started is good enough for 15th overall in midfielder fantasy production and the Blues have a stretch of five winnable matches in a row coming up. A worthy replacement for Milijovovic if you’re looking for one.
Stock Down: Anthony Martial – Looks like the mercurial Frenchman is going to miss out again and, frankly, no one seems to be nearly as worried about that as the fact that Marcus Rashford is likely to join him on the sidelines. Not good news when no one misses you despite an unproven kid (Mason Greenwood) being the only real alternative.
Stock Up: Joshua King – A big weekend for King against West Ham that underscores the fact that he has two goals and three assists after seven matches. That’s great production from a relatively modest investment in either draft position or salary cap space depending on what game you favor.
Stock Up: Andriy Yarmalenko – The positive trend line continues for Yarmalenko (here’s my write up in this same section from two weeks ago: Minutes played from Week 1 to Week 4 read: 0, 13, 55, and 71 with his second start of the season capped by a goal. That’s what we call an encouraging trend line.). A goal against Manchester United and the Hammers are playing well as a team. Good news for those who got in early.
Stock Up: Gabriel Jesus – Two goals and an assist in 190 minutes of Premier League action so far this season. Consider him the ultimate in high-end handcuffs. If you have Aguero, you’d better find Jesus so you don’t miss out on that Manchester City striking goodness when Aguero is rotated or injured.
Stock Down: Ashley Barnes – Maybe it was just one giant purple patch. Regardless, Chris Wood seems to have stolen Barnes’ mojo with three goals over the past two matches while Barnes has gone scoreless in four consecutive matches.
Stock Up: Danny Welbeck – With Troy Deeney’s health in question, Welbeck got his first Premier League start for the Hornets at the Molineux. He didn’t score but he could see more playing time if Deeney remains sidelined. This is more of an alert that he might be in position to produce rather than a reflection that he’s already started to do so.
My Fantasy Fortunes
With one match still to play in this match week, My fantasy fortunes are still pretty much up in the air. I’m all but assured winning my (modestly named) League of Champions match-up over @fantasygaffer. I’m locked in a tight match-up in our FPL Panel league (for people who contribute to the PL.com weekly panel columns) with fellow Rotoworld-er Chuck Booth. Hard to see a path to winning in our Rotoworld league with Kieran Tierney and Daniel James both playing and six points to make up while my opponent has Kolasinac (who, if he starts, undermines Tierney) and Lindelof coming off of his in the event Kolasinac doesn’t play. I guess my biggest hope there is that Tierney starts, gets a clean sheet, and some attacking points only to make way for Kolasinac who comes in late and picks up a yellow card. I’m in about the same position in Clash Across the Pond where I have Holding and a 6-point deficit to make up. Expecting Arsenal to keep a road clean sheet at Old Trafford doesn’t seem to be something to base fantasy hope on so I’m expecting to lose both of the latter two.
It’s a good thing that I won the IEFSA auction league in the first season. Not the greatest thing for a fantasy writer to admit but I haven’t been very good at it in the few years since then. Perhaps I should have taken the omen that the year 1 championship trophy arrived at my house broken. Regardless, it is a good reminder to only commit a number of things you can actually deliver on. The IEFSA is an auction format and uses different scoring than either PL.com or Togga-style leagues. Preparation for the annual auction is something that demands some serious time and it is time that I haven’t found between normal life commitments, other drafts, and writing pre-season fantasy columns.
The Waiver Wire
As you start looking forward to the last match week before the international break, here are some thoughts on waiver priorities:
Goalkeepers – I mentioned Roberto as a potential one-week solution above with Crystal Palace visiting the London Stadium for Week 8. If you’re looking for a longer-term play, then I’m in on Bernd Leno behind a revitalized Arsenal defense and a favorable run of fixtures over the next month and a half.
Defenders – I’ve already mentioned the Arsenal defenders – Bellerin, Tierney, and Holding (in that order of my personal preference) – but if they’ve already been snapped up then I’d be looking at Tomori from Chelsea or seeing if Zinchenko was dumped after Mendy’s brief return to the line-up.
Midfielders – If Ndombele is there then, by all means, you should be diving in. I suspect he won’t be so I’d shift my attention to Jorginho for the Blues’ stretch of very winnable matches. If you’re looking one-week-only and both of those guys are off the board then either Fornals or El Ghazi (coming off a goal and playing leaky Norwich City next) will almost certainly be available.
Forwards – There continues not to be much available. My first option would be Wesley given Norwich City’s inability to defend powerful center forwards. I suspect that Dominic Calvert-Lewin isn’t available in most 8-team leagues but maybe he was dropped ahead of the match with City and could be available for a solid stretch of matches.
The Top Six
No change in my projected top six. Leicester City were the best of the bunch this weekend but they’re not breaking into the top two so they remain in 3rd. Arsenal could hold steady or drop depending on the results at Old Trafford later today. Spurs and Chelsea were solid but not overwhelming to justify a move up in their respective wins.
Liverpool
Manchester City
Leicester City
Arsenal
Spurs
Chelsea
Relegation
No movement in my relegation trio as all three from last week’s list lost this week as well. The only change just above the bottom three is that Norwich City are going to have to add some points against teams that aren’t Manchester City or they’re going to move into the bottom three very quickly. The Canaries are a great story but they need some actual points and some actual healthy bodies at the back if they’re going to stay up.
Southampton
Newcastle
Watford
Leicester City travel to Liverpool next weekend in what will be a meeting between 1st and 3rd (unless Arsenal absolutely destroy Manchester United at Old Trafford later today). Brendan Rodgers has his side playing well and Liverpool have shown just enough frailty that this is looking like a very enticing match-up. Who would have guessed years ago when Sir Alex, Roy Keane, and company were facing off with Arsene Wenger, Patrick Vieira, and the rest for top of the table honors each season that Liverpool vs Leicester City would have more meaning to the outcome of the league than the first clash of the season between Manchester United and Arsenal. Fascinating times.
