Welcome back for another round of FPL captaincy debate. Well, as I am sure you can understand, with gameweeks coming fast and furious, I am in a heck of a time crunch and need to get straight down to business. A quick recap of the round that was - I busted on my captain, again. I went with Jamie Vardy, based on the case I made for him in the last column. I simply could not ignore the current form (returns in ten straight games) and history of the fixture (five goals in last three appearances at home against Liverpool), even though, obviously, playing the top team in the league has its risks. Another glaring disappointment, as I mentioned a couple of days ago, I dropped Son the same round I transferred him in and, honestly, I did not put much confidence in my replacement, Richarlison. He had a decent fixture, was playing up top, and was under a new era of management that could see him hit the ground running, but it didn’t happen for me. I would have ended the round with one more point had I simply taken a zero. Also, Danny Ings didn’t start and Tammy Abraham blanked in a good looking fixture.
Despite an ugly four point hit due to an early transfer, a new transfer in who did not pan out and a captaincy fail, I still managed to get a green arrow. That seems to be the order of the day in recent weeks. I make a mistake or a bad call on a transfer or captaincy choice but I still somehow climb up the ranks. Well, as most of you can imagine, the gameweek turned out a positive one due mainly to one factor, owning Trent Alexander-Arnold. This was one of those rounds where owning a particular player erased all mistakes and not owning him hurt tremendously no matter what the rest of your team did.
Right, so let me just be frank and say that I have not had the time to watch highlights of all the matches from the previous round, i.e., from last night, and Manchester City and Wolves have yet to even play in Week 19, so I am flying by the seat of my pants with this edition of Captain Obvious, so please, do a bit of extra homework about your armband choice before the next deadline as there could be some relevant information that comes to light after I’ve published this. There is no time left to waste though, so let’s dive into Week 20...
Jamie Vardy (10.1m)
Ownership % - 51.5% (last week, 51.4%)
Season points - 144 (17 Gs, 5 As, 25 BPs)
Opponent - West Ham (road)
Well, we have officially hit the halfway mark of the season and Vardy, despite blanking in Week 19 is just one goal shy of his total last season. He looks destined to smash his career-best season, and when you think about the fact that both matchups against Liverpool are now out of the way, he should enjoy many a return against teh rest of the league. Yes, admittedly, I did not see a minute of the legendary Alexander-Arnold match (that kickoff was at 3am last night for yours truly) but I did see in the match report that Vardy was pretty much invisible - only one shot taken, it didn’t hit the target and no key passes for potential assists. It was, statistically, the worst output from Vardy since, well, the last time he played Liverpool. So, for me, the result cannot be looked at as though Vardy cannot be trusted as an armband choice. Outside of two games against the Reds and a quiet first two weeks of the season, he has been consistently providing returns.
The one thing that may put me off about him for this round, away to West Ham...ok, maybe it is two things. But one has to do with the other so...the result of the loss to Liverpool last night could have really taken the wind out of Leicester’s sails. Any hopes at a title challenge look all but lost and to be beaten so thoroughly could leave the club playing with a bit of pre-New Year’s hangover against the Hammers. The second point, as eluded to, is that this knowledge of the title being realistically out of reach may be a reason, during this busy glut of fixtures, to give Vardy a rest. He has never started all 38 games of a Premier League campaign and this seems to me the game that makes the most sense to rest him, the fixture that falls between Boxing Day and New Year’s Day. Anything regarding potential rest for players in this edition of Captain Obvious is pure conjecture. Nothing is for certain. But, you can see how, if there ever was a time for a healthy Vardy to not make the XI, this would be it. Still, he belongs on the shortlist because potential rest, which cannot be predicted, is not enough to knock a player of his caliber down a tier. He did score in this fixture last season, for what it’s worth.
Mo Salah (12.3m), Sadio Mané (12.2m)
Ownership % - 23.9% and 37.1%, respectively
Season points - 107 (9 Gs, 4 As, 13 BPs), 121 (9 Gs, 8 As, 15 BPs) respectively
Opponent - Wolves (home)
As mentioned already, I did not have a chance to see even the highlights of the win over Leicester last night, but I did read some things on Twitter in regards to Mo Salah’s substitution. I wanted to make sure that it was not injury related. At first, I thought it could be strategical, with Jurgen Klopp wanting to preserve Salah for the quick turnaround, which would make complete sense. But, according to the Twitterverse, Salah had a poor game, was quite greedy with the ball, not looking up to find a teammate when he should have done so and the goals came fast for Liverpool after his removal. Now, I would not take from that, that Salah is going to lose his place. His stature is way too high to get booted that quickly. It is something to monitor as the season goes on though. With Liverpool locking in the title and focusing on Champions League in the second half of the season, Salah could see a benching or two if he is making his manager unhappy.
Unless we see rest for one of these Liverpool giants this weekend, we pretty much have to pair them together in the captaincy debate because, odds are, you own one and not the other. And, in most weeks when both are fit and not in a complete drought, they both belong in the discussion for the armband. I would feel a bit better about Mane because he is coming off an assist and a good day versus Salah, but I would also feel positive about Salah avoiding a rest versus Mane, because he came out of the game early last night. Here is why both are really attractive in my eyes assuming both start. They have an extra day over Wolves to rest their legs. Now, in normal weeks, when one club might get six days between games off to another’s five, that’s not such a big deal to even make note of. But, when you have three days to recover compared to only two, which is all Wolves will have, that does make a considerable difference. Factor in the game is at Anfield and I expect big things for the Reds this weekend.
Harry Kane (11m), Dele Alli (8.9m)
Ownership % - 20.6% and 16.8%, respectively
Season points - 94 (10 Gs, 2 As, 14 BPs) and 71 (6 Gs, 3 As, 9 BPs) respectively
Opponent - Norwich (away)
Oh, my Spurs. My frustrating, frustrating Spurs. When the game against Brighton hit the halftime whistle last night, I was pining for the days of Mauricio Pochettino to return and give up on this José Mourinho “experiment”. What’s done is done, though. And thankfully, something happened in the dressing room speech because Tottenham finally found some quality and reversed the outcome of the game, with both Kane and Alli finding the net. This is another situation where you likely have one player and not the other but I feel there is a bit more chance you could own both than the Salah/Mane example. If that were the case, I would slightly favor Kane as the better armband choice heading into Week 20. He found the net in the first half against Brighton, mind, but that pesky VAR ruled the goal out. He is also, as was expected, more of a focal point in the final third with the loss of Heung-Min Son. That said, Dele Alli is just a fun player to captain when he is in form. He scores brilliant goals when things are going his way, and perhaps it is fan bias, but captaining a player like him when he scores causes an extra strong fist pump for me.
That said, even with my loyalty to my club, I am only sneaking these two options into the shortlist based mostly on fixture. Tottenham have a lot to prove in terms of being consistent and, thereby, trustworthy enough for armband duty, but they are playing Norwich. The Canaries are dead last in the league now and have conceded more goals than anyone. While clubs like Watford and Southampton have seen a turnaround in recent weeks to not make them automatic pushovers for their opponents, Norwich have been pretty much limping along all season, with their best run of form coming in the opening rounds when Teemu Pukki was making the headlines. Were it not for this opponent, I would be more apprehensive about including either Kane or Alli on the shortlist, but with the fixture and recent returns for each, they are going to see their share of armband investment among managers in FPL Land.
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Kevin De Bruyne (10.5m)
Ownership % - 48.2% (last week, 46.7%)
Season points - 120 (6 Gs, 11 As, 16 BPs) *this does not include whatever he returns against Wolves in GW19
Opponent - Sheffield United (home)
Right, obviously this is not an easy call to make because I am making the case for a player who has not played yet in Week 19 and, as we all know, anything can happen in the Premier League. That said, unless he is removed tonight due to injury, I feel good about him as a captaincy option for Week 20. Barring something completely bizarre like a red card tonight, De Bruyne would be, at worst, tied for the top-scoring midfielder in the game. That would be from no clean sheet, no goal, no assist and a yellow card kind of game, otherwise he will enter Week 20 the best-scoring player at his position. Even being a bit in the dark with the Wolves game not yet played, it isn’t too difficult to sell someone on the idea of making De Bruyne an elite armband choice. He is as involved in making goals happen as anyone is in this league and even when he blanks, you can count on him to not disappear on you.
Now, Sheffield United have arguably been punching above their weight all season, but credit where it is due, the season is half over now and they are currently in a position to earn a ticket to the Europa League next season. This has been due, more than anything to their excellent defensive record, which would usually be all you would need to reconsider captaining a player against them. But City are tops in the league when it comes to scoring goals, even with a game in hand. I would expect the Blades to cough up at least two in this trip to the Etihad and, like most weeks where it looks destined for City to score at least twice, I feel good about backing De Bruyne. He is right now though, the only City option I would consider. Gabriel Jesus is a risk now that Sergio Agüero returned from injury and we are already well aware of Pep Guardiola’s heavy rotation policy. So, in a round where we are bound to see rest and rotation all around the league, no one will no what XI Pep will have for the Blades. Still, I feel in the case of De Bruyne, he is the player that makes the attack tick, and at worst, may play a shorter shift to preserve him for this busy stretch of the season.
Who’s been left off the shortlist and why...
Tammy Abraham (7.9m)
Ownership % - 36.1%
Season points - 103 (11 Gs, 3 As, 19 BPs)
Opponent - Arsenal (away)
I am going to make analysis of these players outside the top tier short and sweet. In the case of Abraham, there is little confidence in him or any Chelsea player for armband material. He blanked again in what was supposed to be a tantalizing fixture on paper, home to Southampton, and has now blanked in four straight and six out of the last seven. He really doesn’t even belong in the conversation given that you are likely to own at least one of thei players on the shortlist and any of them make more sense as a captain for this round, but I wanted to point out that Chelsea playing away to Arsenal, given Tammy’s drought and players getting rotated elsewhere, are just not a side you want to be looking at for armband purposes in Week 20. I mean, it’s a derby and anything can happen, but backing a Blue right now has to be something you must feel in your gut that I won’t be able to talk you out of.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (10.8m)
Ownership % - 18.2% (last week, 18.5%)
Season points - 112 (12 Gs, 3 As, 20 BPs)
Opponent - Chelsea (home)
I would feel way more confident in giving Aubameyang the armband over anyone for Chelsea, that is for sure, but given the derby matchup and Arsenal’s ho-hum draw to Bournemouth in Mikel Arteta’s debut, I cannot find the logic in putting him in the top tier for this round as I did in the last round against the Cherries. It has to be said, Aubameyang has got to be the least appreciated FPL player of the season though. He’s on a dozen goals, is the second-highest scoring forward in the game and has started every game, going the full 90 minutes in all but one of them. But still, here he is, on the outside looking in of the shortlist and .2m cheaper than his price tag at the start of the season. If he follows FPL at all, he must be wondering to himself, “what do I have to do to justify my price tag for crying out loud?”
Marcus Rashford (9.1m)
Ownership % - 28.4% (last week, 28.5%)
Season points - 111 (11 Gs, 5 As, 20 BPs)
Opponent - Burnley (away)
I said it in the last column, Rashford and the Red Devils in general simply cannot be trusted in games against “lesser opposition”. They seem to consistently rise to the occasion against the big clubs but disappoint time and again against everyone else. That looked to be the case again last night as, 17 minutes into the match, they found themselves on the losing side against Newcastle, a club they had already lost too earlier in the season. But, Rashford did find the net and United stormed back, fair play to them. Still, they are just too inconsistent for my tastes and they are not going to put up four goals in my view most weeks. So, with Anthony Martial heating up, Mason Greenwood perhaps making a place for himself in the XI and Paul Pogba perhaps entering the mix, will Rashford be the focal point of Manchester United’s FPL returns? I worry that, along with the inconsistency of the club, that the other players around Rashford could eat into his production right now.
*Honorable Mention - Danny Ings...hey, if you want, if nothing else, to avoid the trap of captaining a player who gets rested for this unpredictable gameweek, you can always go for a differential and nominate a sure starter in Ings, who was rested last night, playing just 21 minutes against Chelsea. He will definitely be in the XI against Crystal Palace, it is a home game, and he has been consistent enough over the last nine rounds to earn your trust that he’s got at least a 50/50 shot at a goal against the Eagles.
Hit me up on Twitter @FuzzyWarbles and let me know your thoughts on who you’ve nominated for captain and why. Good luck with your selection this weekend and may your arrows be green.
