Greetings, and welcome back for another round of FPL captaincy debate, the most important decision of your gameweek.
Two rounds ago, most of us were pumping our collective fists over the mega-haul that Mo Salah provided us, with those that played the triple captain on him taking a ridiculous 84 points from one player and round scores finished well over the 100 point threshold. Surely, with only one club on a double gameweek in this latest round, coupled with Salah and the rest of Liverpool’s productive fantasy assets having no match to play, Week 27 could not possibly deliver the same kind of excitement…and that was precisely the reality we all faced.
Week 27 was a popular round for many managers to play their Free Hit chip, in order to build a strong side by taking expensive Liverpool assets out of the equation and cherry-picking the best matchups, along with tripling up on Burnley players, as they were the only side playing twice. This caused much anxiety for your humble writer, who instead decided to roll with the squad he had, having the likes of Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold being replaced with players that are usually rooted to the bench, like Brandon Williams and Rayan Ait-Nouri. The hope was to simply hold serve. I had no delusions of a significant climb in the ranks, rather, I was crossing my fingers that my rank would not massively plummet.
In that regard, I would say the round was a “success”. It was…satisfactory. True, I did take a red arrow, the first in six gameweeks, but I only dropped 2k from 80k to 82k, finishing with 51 points, two points shy of a “safety score”. Considering the likes of Williams and Ait-Nouri each put up a goose egg, while my captaincy choice, Kevin De Bruyne, returned only 3 points, I have to feel pretty fortunate in escaping with only minor rank damage. There was a chance to still grab a green arrow in the round, and I came oh so close, as I had the armband on Heung-Min Son for quite some time building up to the deadline, but De Bruyne felt like such a massive differential that I came to the conclusion he was my best weapon against those that were on their Free Hit chip. Oopsie-daisy.
In the end, it was more about those who had played a Free Hit in Week 27 did not completely smash it. Burnley assets from top to bottom disappointed massively, as they were unable to keep a clean sheet in either match while mustering only a single goal over the course of their two games, an unassisted Aaron Lennon goal. So, for the 0.2% of FPL managers out there with Aaron Lennon - congratulations. That is a moment worth taking a screenshot, printing it out and posting on your living room wall.
So now we move on to Week 28, a week that should see the average round score rise considerably higher than the 53 point average from the previous round, as not only are all clubs playing, but eight of the twenty teams will be playing twice. This should see another gameweek with plenty of chip use, many playing their second-half Wildcard, while others are playing a Free Hit this time around, and even a few who are opting for the always-tricky Bench Boost chip. Your humble writer is once again facing the challenge of making progress in the ranks without the use of a chip and the task is all the more daunting as I will be spending four points to provide myself a total of seven double gameweek players.
With my strategy this week, it may be another case of just hoping to hold serve, but the four points spent should come back to pay itself off, as not only am I replacing players who play once with players who play twice, the players I am bringing in will also have a game in Week 30, a round whose fixtures are now set up after the completion of FA Cup action this week. There will be only four games on tap in Week 30, so moves were made that will hopefully provide some immediate payoff while helping navigate that difficult round ahead, which, as of right now, I can possibly find success again without the use of a chip. We have some time to worry about Week 30, so let us keep our minds focused on the task at hand, as this week should make for a very interesting, and possibly ulcer-inducing, armband decision. Without further ado, it is time to evaluate the landscape in this Week 28 edition of Captain Obvious…
Singing the Blues
Due to the shape of my squad, I simply cannot find a way to bring in a Chelsea asset this week, but I sure wish I could. Were they to have a game in Week 30, then it would be a different story, but have to think about the short term AND the long term. That said, with the recently-added second game for the Blues, they stand out as the clear best club playing twice, with games coming against Burnley and Norwich City. This Chelsea double could be argued as reason alone to play a chip in order to maximize on their potential, as they are expected to win both of these games and, one would think, at least one clean sheet should be on offer.
If you are like me and will be without a Chelsea asset, there is a little bit of a silver lining to the situation. The second game of their double was only added officially just a few hours ago, so there is only one full day between the announcement of a second game and the coming deadline, meaning there will be many managers who have either already committed to other transfers or simply did not make previous arrangements to accommodate a Blues player or two. This is simply my feeble attempt to suppress the anxiety that I imagine those without Chelsea players will be feeling along with me.
That said, I really think there are only a couple of Blues who make sense to give the armband to. Thomas Tuchel is no stranger to rotating star players in and out of his XI and I think that will continue to be the case following an exhausting Cup final loss last weekend to Liverpool. In fact, there is only one player I feel that can be counted on for certain to play both games this week - star goalkeeper Edouard Mendy. Owned by 11% of managers, he would be my pick, as I think one clean sheet among these two games is a stone-cold lock, and two clean sheets are a distinct possibility. Add in a save point or two, and possibly a bit of bonus, and Mendy should deliver a very safe and healthy score worthy of the armband for the one-in-nine managers out there fortunate enough to have him.
If you do not have Mendy and the idea of spending a transfer on a keeper to bring him in does not float your boat, then I would still feel pretty good about backing the next-most reliable option to start both games, which is Antonio Rüdiger. Rudiger has played the full 90 minutes in every league game this season except once, missing out Week 8 against Brentford. The man simply is a human engine who never tires. Even with the cupcake matchup in midweek against Luton Town, where many of Chelsea’s preferred starters were given a spot on the bench, there was Rudiger in the XI, playing in a back three with Malang Sarr and Ruben Loftus-Cheek, of all people, while Kenedy and Callum Hudso-Odoi were deployed in the wingback roles. Luton Town nearly pulled off an upset, as it took two late Chelsea goals to come from behind and win that cup tie.
We should see, then, Chelsea’s more prominent defenders take the pitch this weekend when the Blues travel to Turf Moor, so the likes of Reece James, Marcos Alonso, Thiago Silva and possibly César Azpilicueta should all be depended on to start. The question is, can they be depended on to start again for what I think is the easier fixture later in the round against Norwich? My guess is that there will be at least a change or two, particularly in the case of the dynamic Reece James, who is still not back to full fitness after a long injury layoff. I think Rudiger is the smartest and safest pick to use your captaincy on among Chelsea’s defenders, with Marcos Alonso a more risk/reward play. Alonso does have a fair chance at starting both, but not as certain as Rudiger is, though if Alonso can deliver attacking returns, then it may be worth the risk of possibly getting only one start from him.
Finally, and this really speaks to the oddity that is Chelsea, there are attacking options to consider, though I personally do not feel very strong about any of them. Again, we are stuck in a reality where the likes of Romelu Lukaku, Kai Havertz and Mason Mount “should” start both games, but there would be no surprise if they did not. Still, one start and one cameo off the bench may be plenty enough for these guys to validate captaincy, so I am not completely against the idea of looking their way. Mount, for me, is the most dependable player for starting each game, though I would feel a bit apprehensive following his performance in the Carabao Cup final, where he blew two big chances to score what would have been a trophy-winning goal. The inconsistency of Lukaku, both in making the XI and in the performances he delivers on the pitch, would steer me away from armband investment, but to be honest, his FPL price would steer me away from investment, period. Havertz, then, by default, is probably my best recommendation if you are wanting to back an attacking player from Chelsea. He was given a full rest for the FA Cup game midweek. But we have been down this road before with him. He has drawn interest for the armband in the past only to disappoint, and we have to face facts - we are entering the final quarter of the season and he only has two goals and two assists to his credit - hardly impressive.
Single Salah
Perhaps not the best example all things considered, but this past gameweek served as a reminder that backing a double gameweek player for the armband over a single gameweek player is not always an automatic path to success. Of course, we did not have to worry about the potential that Salah playing only once could outscore players with two games this past round because he did not play at all. This week, however, we DO need to think about whether backing the hands-down best player in the game for one fixture is as good a bet as backing another player with two matches on tap.
Admittedly, this is a tough call. Were Salah playing a lesser side, say, any club in the bottom half of the table, then I would consider him on par with any double gameweek option out there. However, they host West Ham this weekend, a club that has been enjoying a very solid campaign and who are knocking on the door of a Champions League spot, two points behind fourth place in the table. My money is on Liverpool to win this game. They had cut the Manchester City gap at the top of the table in half when they last played a league game. City’s lead has returned to six points, but the Reds now have a game in hand and also have plenty of confidence brimming coming off of their Carabao Cup final win.
However, I could see this West Ham match being a pretty tight affair, like a 1-0 or 2-1 result, which means Salah can definitely score something, but I doubt he has much of a chance to get into a double-digit sized return. Famous last words, I know…never doubt what this man is capable of. But, armband selection cannot help but have its punditry to go along with it. Judgment calls must be made, and for me, that is the call that makes the most sense. Salah has a very good chance, as always, to grab an attacking return and some bonus to boot, but his ceiling is lower than some of those double gameweek options out there for sure. Long story short, Salah is a decent play, in that, when it comes to expectations from one game, there is no other player you can trust more, but if you want to roll the dice on an option that has the potential to either do worse or much, much better, then I think you have to take the leap on a double gameweek option. Don’t worry. Liverpool have a double in Week 29, so it won’t be long until you back Salah again either way. (What am I going to write about for Week 29 other than “captain Salah”?)
Raphinha Leeds the Way
Right, so now to look at what is traditionally the pool of players we go for in rounds like this - attacking players with a double gameweek that features at least one attractive fixture. Despite not being in the best of form at the moment and, as you may have heard, the club being under a period of transition following several nightmare losses, I have a hunch that Raphinha could really deliver the goods in Week 28.
Leeds have lost five of their last six games and Raphinha has only one attacking return over those six, so what makes him so attractive now? Well, a couple of rather simple reasons, in my view, perhaps considered by some to be overly-simple. First, the resignation of Marcelo Biesla had to happen. The club were in a complete tailspin and the results kept repeating themselves. Now, I cannot speak to the kind of long-term effect new manager Jesse Marsch will have on the club, but there is a track record of players stepping up and feeling a jolt of energy when a managerial change takes place. It truly is a case of wiping the slate clean and starting fresh. Leeds have a good amount of talent in there side, particularly in the attacking positions. This is not a case of say (sorry to pick on you) Norwich appointing a new manager and having an unrealistic expectation of a major turnaround given who they have on their roster. But for Leeds, it is somewhat possible. Last season, with much the same squad, they were capable of being competitive with anyone, and I think we will see them improve straight away starting this weekend.
Now to be fair, the lack of Patrick Bamford leading the line and the absence of Kalvin Phillips in the engine room continues to hurt the Peacocks but there is still enough talent in that attack to score goals and both of Leeds opponents, Leicester for much of the season and Aston Villa in recent weeks, have a reputation of shipping goals. In fact, Leeds played Villa only four gameweeks ago, a match in which they drew but were able to score three times. My personal projections sees Leeds scoring four goals in total in these two games and, being their most talented weapon, I cannot help but believe that Raphinha will be involved in at least one of them, with a fair shot at playing a role in two or more. Yes, only one return in the last six games would beg the question, “why trust him?”, and I can understand those hesitant to hand him the armband. But the clean slate and his talent, for me, are enough to surmise that he is “due” to haul and the climate is right for it. I also can feel very confident he will start in both of these games under new management.
Coutinho’s Last Stand?
Early polling shows many folks looking at Philippe Coutinho for captaincy this week and I do feel he deserves a spot on my short list of best options, but it has to be said, I do worry a bit about his, and Aston Villa’s, recent performances. After such a strong showing in his first three appearances, he has now blanked three games in a row, with Villa’s attack averaging just a single goal per game in those last three.
You can go back to my column several weeks ago when I began to tout Coutinho as a potential armband candidate, where I made a critical point that I feel applies here, which is, the Brazilian international is a very streaky player. It has only taken half a dozen games back in the Premier League to see a perfect example of what I am talking about. When Coutinho is right, he is such a brilliant creator and, when he scores goals, they typically are high-quality strikes, nothing ever comes cheap for Coutinho. But as brilliant a highlight reel he can point to for his goal-scoring, it is also a reason to pause and take a breath, coming to the realistic conclusion that he does not score goals in the traditional sense. Meaning, when you look at his numbers, he is not taking a healthy amount of shots in the box on a game-to-game basis. He is kind of more along the lines of a Rúben Neves, if Neves were able to actually create chances and not just take audacious shots from outside the box.
You really have to look at goals from Coutinho as a blessing and look at him with the more realistic expectation of his assist potential, which is always lurking as he is such a gifted creative player. Because he has blanked in three straight and I maintain that he is a streaky performer, if all clubs were playing a single match, I do not think he would be in the armband conversation at all. But, given two games to do something, it is enough for me to believe that the possibility is there for him to get a double digit return from one of these two games and validate his armband selection. That said, the fixtures are not as attractive as they may have appeared a few weeks ago, when we were looking ahead at this round for potential captains. First, they take on a Southampton side who are playing about as well as anyone in the league right now. Then, they get Leeds for the second game, which, were this still the Biesla era, would be plenty to get excited about, but now Leeds are developing a new identity, so we do not know how leaky a defense they will be going forward.
Speaking of the Saints
Finally, to round out the shortlist, we need to talk about the in-form Saints of Southampton. In their last five games, they have won three, including a road win at Spurs, and drawn twice, once against each Manchester club. They are playing some really good football right now, both in an attacking and defending sense, and the fixtures they have for their double gameweek, away to Aston Villa and then home to Newcastle, are pretty fair matchups considering the form they are in right now.
Villa, in particular, look like a club the Saints could continue to keep their momentum going against, as the Villa defense which looked strong at first when Steven Gerrard took over, have really been mediocre at best in recent weeks. We should see goals in this one. The Newcastle game will be the real test and provide an extremely intriguing contest, as the Magpies themselves are in the midst of one of their best runs of form in years right now. For me, any one of three potential candidates from the Saints could pay off with the armband - Che Adams, James Ward-Prowse and Armando Broja.
I list those names in order of my personal mini-ranking. Adams is enjoying perhaps the best form of his career at the moment, delivering attacking returns in four straight games leading into this double gameweek. One has to think his chances of at least one goal involvement over the two games are quite high, so he is my top choice among the Saints for the armband. Ward-Prowse would be next. He is another one of those types of players that I do not feel too confident in when playing just a single game, but with so much set piece work, you just get the feeling something will come out of a pair of games. Broja rounds out the list. I almost want to only designate him as an honorable mention, but between him and Adams, it really could go either way. That is the main worry here. I doubt both Adams and Broja will deliver in ways worthy of armband investment, it is much more likely that one hits and the other misses, but if you are fortunate enough to back the one that hits, then it is going to be a good week for you.
Honorable Wolves
Wolves have a pretty good double gameweek lined up, with two home games against Crystal Palace and Watford. I think having one or two in your lineup this week is wise, but for some reason, I do not feel very confident about picking any one of their players for the armband. I think it comes down to the fact that there is so much spread among their XI, any one player could be the star in a given game. In terms of reality football, that is a good thing. They have several players who are of Man of the Match quality. But they do not really have that one or two “main” stars that earns your trust. Judging by transfer activity this week, many are believing in Raúl Jiménez, but for him to have only five goals at this stage of the season does not offer me much confidence. I mean, Hwang Hee-chan has as many goals as Jimenez despite playing only a bit more than half the minutes on the season. Jose Sa seems the most sensible option. He is the top fantasy scorer for Wolves on the season and one clean sheet from two home games is certainly a reasonable expectation. In smaller double gameweeks with less options to be had, I think Sa would be given more consideration, but I think there are enough attacking options with higher ceilings to choose from, leaving Sa farther down the pecking order for me.
That’s about all I have for Week 28. Are there any other double gameweek players you feel should have been mentioned? I did not include anyone from Watford or Newcastle, with the latter being such solid form. Hit me up on Twitter and let me know if you feel a strong armband candidate has been wrongfully omitted this week. This looks to be a very wide-open round when it comes to armband selection. Salah will certainly see a solid percentage of backing based solely on ghost teams that have the captaincy permanently on him, but otherwise, there should be a very large spread of players this week. Of all the weeks to get the call right, this one seems especially crucial.
Good luck, and may your arrows be green.
