Welcome back for another round of FPL captaincy debate. Well, my return column for Week 35 was a humbling experience. Let us go ahead and address the elephant in the room. No, I did not back Michail Antonio as a captaincy option. But, you know what? That does not feel like the biggest oversight on my part. I really should have found a place for Raheem Sterling, at least among the honorable mentions.
Here is my explanation - I have a prejudice against City players for captaincy consideration, with the exception of Kevin De Bruyne. This is definitely one of those philosophical debates about how to play FPL. Some folks like to take more risks while others play conservative and both methods can lead to the same result. I have used poker analogies before and I cannot help but apply one here. There are those who play “tight”, they fold a lot of hands and wait for strong cards to go for big pots. Then there are good “loose” players who like to see flops. They will play with just about any starting hand and, if they don’t get the cards they want, they flex their bluffing skills. I play in a style, both in poker and FPL that would be considered “tight-aggressive”. That is, I play conservative most of the time but pick my spots to take risks here and there. When I pick those spots, usually there is a respect at the table. “Hey, this guy has been folding so many hands. He must have the goods this time”. Unfortunately, in FPL, you can’t bluff your way to a good round. But to bring this analogy all the way back around, this is why under the era of Pep Guardiola, my tendency is to avoid the trap of his rotation policy. And, with this crazy run of fixtures to condense the end of the season in a few weeks’ time, even though I see City are scoring goals, I just feel it more prudent to find an attractive candidate that you at least can count on to start.
So my intention going forward is to not let my personal philosophy prevent myself from including the likes of Sterling in an armband debate. Here were his minutes in the three matches before this past weekend’s hat trick - 78, 58, 29. Now, to be fair to Sterling, he grabbed a double-digit haul in two of these three games. He can put up big numbers without getting a 90 minute shift. But this is the grand debate. Do you think Sterling is an armband option based on the way Pep uses him? The answer is: It depends on your philosophy. If you don’t mind taking risks, if you can see your philosophy over time is working for you, then it is okay to ignore Sterling for captaincy if you choose and it is just as okay to consider him. This is probably the ideal moment to shout out to a buddy and long-time FPL enthusiast Ryan, who used his Free Hit chip for GW35. He scored a 115 points, a round rank inside the top 1k. He brought in Antonio. He brought in Sterling. He captained Sterling. That is one chip very well spent.
Wouldn’t you know it? We are in store for yet another start of a gameweek in about twelve hours. So, I am sure you can understand that there is less than no time to waste. We need to make this one short and sweet so let’s dive in to the Week 36 edition of Captain Obvious.[[ad:athena]]
Bruno Fernandes (9m)
Rostered % - 29.5% (last round, 27.9%)
Season points - *99 (7 Gs, 7 As, 15 BPs) *joined PL in Gameweek 25
Opponent - Crystal Palace (away)
I was extremely bullish on Bruno Fernandes with my first column back since our hiatus. He came good with an attacking return, something he has done in nine of his past ten league games. Yet, with some of the cricket scores put up by other players around the league, including on his own team (Anthony Martial collected 13 points), many managers, myself included will feel a bit dejected after his five points x 2.
To be completely honest, I have only now been able to watch a condensed version of last night’s draw with Southampton, so it’s a bit weird trying to promote an armband candidate that I was only to see glimpses of. What I did see, however, did not change my mind on him one bit as a strong armband option for the run-in. Seeing that he failed to register a single shot, a first for Fernandes in his fledgling United career, certainly does not fill me with confidence if giving him the armband this week, but that stat is not enough for me to dismiss him. It merely shows, like every other player in this week, legend or not, sometimes you have an off game.
For me, I am excited about his potential this week because I am going to assume many managers will attempt to chase points by going after options that scored big in the previous round, like Sterling. That is fine by me. The only thing that would put me off of him automatically is a tough fixture which, these days, Crystal Palace is not. After a positive beginning to the restart where they won 0-2 at Bournemouth, the Eagles have gone on to lose the last five straight, conceding about two and a half goals a game in that stretch. With United fighting for a top four start, with goal difference perhaps coming into play (Leicester is equal with 58 points but has a better goal difference by +3) I would expect United to bury a Palace side with nothing left to play for and they will aim to put a crooked number on the board to dig into that goal difference.
Raheem Sterling (11.8m)
Rostered % - 18.8%
Season points - 178 points (17 Gs, 5 As, 17 BPs)
Opponent - Bournemouth (home)
Right, you want Sterling in the armband mix? Well, here he is. But I am going to beat the same drum now that I did in my intro - I am personally not a fan of captaining Sterling or any City player not named De Bruyne. Even with Sergio Agüero out injured, you would think Gabriel Jesus, who is young and used sparingly enough to, one would think, be ready to take on the workload, but it is simply not true. Jesus’ minutes in the last six games - 45, 35, 57, 90, 60, 63. Look, I am not saying Jesus is a bad player to own. Same with Sterling. I am just not in the camp that thinks captaining him is a prudent move. It’s a gamble, and I will humbly admit, it is a gamble that can pay off and leave conservative players like me in the dust. If you are in the opposite camp though, and you don’t mind the risk, then sure, go with Sterling if that is what your gut tells you.
There really is no reason to get stat-heavy with this option. The form is clear - he is coming off a hat trick. The fixture is clear - home to Bournemouth should see an over/under minimum of 2.5 goals. His appeal comes down to one factor. Do you trust Pep to trot him out there for a start after a 90 minute shift? My guess if forced to give one is “Yes”. If my guess was “No”, I would not include him among the top options. The area where it gets dicey is that I typically feel an armband option should have a 90% chance or better of starting and playing more than 60-65 minutes. With Sterling for this round, it feels like about a 75% chance. That may be good enough for you and you might be in for a huge return.
Willian (7.4m), Christian Pulisic (7.3m)
Rostered % - 13.1% and 12.3%, respectively
Season points - 161 (9 Gs, 8 As, 26 BPs), 109 (8 Gs, 7As, 8 BPs
Opponent - Norwich (home)
There are going to be a lot of managers out there who are looking to captain the best player on whichever team is playing Norwich, and I have to say, I can’t blame the strategy. This match really has the recipe for massive returns all around the Chelsea roster. After their attack had been smooth sailing before this past weekend, the mood soured quickly after a 0-3 loss to Sheffield United. Frank Lampard was probably about as upset as he has been since taking the manager role and you have to think, playing the relegated Canaries is the perfect opponent to build one’s confidence back up and bring a positive atmosphere back to the club.
Because there is a bit of mystery at the forward position (Olivier Giroud seems to have the edge over Tammy Abraham currently), most folks will be looking to captain a player from Chelsea’s midfield. Willian and Pulisic are the clear-cut options to choose from. This is all common knowledge. Now, here’s where I break off from the pack. Between polls and plenty of banter on social media, I see many managers saying they prefer Pulisic to Willian. I completely disagree. The clue as to who the better option is in the bonus points. I was actually surprised to see Willan up to 26 BPs. The only midfielder with more than that on the season is De Bruyne. Meanwhile, Pulisic has a paltry eight BPs. Yes, Willian has seen about 1,000 more minutes of pitch time, but even on a minute to minute basis, Willian has the clear edge in this department and that underscores how he is more involved in scoring than Pulisic is.
Willian has been especially effective since the restart. Starting in Week 30, the only player with more key passes than Willian is De Bruyne and the only ones to have more than Willian’s ten shots on target are Mo Salah, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and, heh, Michail Antonio (I think all ten of those were over the weekend). So Willian is among the leaders in setting up assists and among the leaders in getting themselves on the scoresheet. Frankly, he is quietly in perhaps the best form of his career. The Pulisic love may come from the tag of being U.S.-born and he get’s plenty of hype. I am hoping for a long, successful career from him, but for now, the stats don’t lie. Willian is the better option among the two. That said, if you own Pulisic and not Willian and you are certain Chelsea are going to score big this weekend, then I can see the appeal in backing him.
Kevin De Bruyne (10.8m)
Rostered % - 52.0% (last week, 52.5%)
Season points - 226 (11 Gs, 21 As, 32 BPs)
Opponent - Bournemouth (home)
So, it looks like some managers decided to give up on KDB this week, as his rostered percentage has gone down half a point since heading into the previous deadline. When are these folks going to learn? I mean, yes, it was a disappointing weekend, particularly frustrating when there were five goals to go around and he couldn’t get a single piece of the action. But here’s the news - he is still the top-scoring player in the game and his value has always been there. Even now, at 10.8m, there are still half a dozen players more expensive that you could own instead, and they have all scored less than the Belgian. Just set it and forget it. If you want to take a break from giving him the armband, that is understandable. But I do not get why anyone would sell this guy. Despite the results from the last round, give me De Bruyne plus an extra million to spend in my squad over Sterling any day of the week. But I get the hunch, of that .5% drop in team selection percentage, most did the sideways move and replaced him with Sterling.
Partially because there is a time crunch and partially because...what more do you need to know about De Bruyne? I mean, he already has a lock on the single season record for assists. He is the architect of one of the most prolific scoring sides in league history and he is more nailed on to start league games than anyone else in City’s attack. The points are not done coming for him this season and I am certain his captaincy rate this round will be much lower than it ought to be for the top scorer in the game playing in a fixture like this.
Mo Salah (12.6m), Sadio Mané (12.2m)
Rostered % - 35.1% and 21.1%, respectively
Season points - 225 (19 Gs, 9 As, 26 BPs), 202 (16 Gs, 9 As, 26 BP)
Opponent - Arsenal (away)
It will be interesting to see what the captaincy percentages will be for the two prolific Liverpool options, both coming off a disappointing 2-point “blank” over the weekend. Between that and a fixture that leans more toward “difficult” than it does “easy” and we may see them much lower on armband rate this week than we typically do. That said, they will be among the most captained, particularly Salah, so they certainly deserve mention here. Personally, I am a little worried about Salah. When Mane was given a rest two games ago, I thought Jurgen Klopp might hand Salah the same fate for the next round. But he did start and it wasn’t too surprising to see, considering he had bagged a brace in the previous match. Now, though, coming off a blank, might this be the trap week for Salah managers? It is enough to put me off. For those who want to consider him, that is your call to make. What you should not do, however, is dismiss him simply because he didn’t get on the scoresheet for you this past weekend. The involvement was still there, with three key passes and four shots on target.
Mane, meanwhile, has had only one attacking return in his last four games. He is certainly capable of rising to the challenge and producing in this fixture, but giving him the armband should probably only be reserved for those who really want to roll the dice on a lesser-captained option for the hopes of a bigger impact in your rank. The Gunners just conceded twice to a struggling Tottenham side and, as long as David Luiz is around, there is always a change Pool catches him on an off day and put four or more past the Gunners.
Everyone else - There are a couple of strikers that I think are worth some level of consideration. One is current Golden Boot leader Jamie Vardy...because, you know, he is the current Golden Boot leader. I’m just not thrilled with the idea of captaining anyone against that pesky Sheffield United defense. The other name is Gabriel Jesus. Mentioned earlier in the column, I think if you own him and De Bruyne, a case could be made for Jesus. That case is - De Bruyne has the higher floor in my view, but Jesus may have the higher ceiling. After a trick from Sterling over the weekend, it could very well be Jesus’ turn. Still, it is a gamble as to what kind of minutes Jesus will get. Finally, he is pretty much a forward as well, but classified as a midfielder, Anthony Martial’s recent form should get him a shout. He just hasn’t quite earned that trust factor I look for in a captain, but given his recent production, I cannot judge anyone wanting to take a chance on him.
Hit me up on Twitter @FuzzyWarbles and let me know your thoughts on who you’ve nominated for captain and why. Good luck with your selection this weekend and may your arrows be green.
