Someone is suffering from an acute case of early transfer-itis.
I have always been vocal about the importance of holding off executing transfers until the last possible moment, but i do concede that there are some situations where you feel the need to roll the dice. That was the case for me, as I had two free transfers for Week 23 to use once the Saturday deadline passed and I saw a chance to make a massive upgrade to my team with a “three transfers for -4 points” mini-wildcard. I have no regrets with who I sold in the move - Danny Ings, Marcos Alonso and...Terence Kongolo (don’t ask). The problem was one of the players I bought and one that I held onto are both injured. Yes, as a Spurs fan, imagine my mood after Sunday night, when suffering through a heartbreaking loss when David De Gea seemed to be personally trolling me, and then the final whistle brought the worst news of all, an ankle injury to Harry Kane.
Naturally, the best thing to do when FPL hits you this hard in the face is to take a step back for a day or two, which I did. That was all the rehabilitation I needed because once I jumped back on social media, I saw the horror stories of seemingly every FPL manager with a Twitter account, virtually in the same position as I was. Everyone was talking about whether to take a 4 point or 8 point hit and some were thinking it was time to break out their second-half wildcard.
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Never has misery loved company more.
So, if you are in a tough spot with your squad this week, allow me to attempt to calm you down a bit. There are some fortunate souls who did not suffer from the slings and arrows of Week 22, but take it easier on yourself knowing that many good managers are in a similar situation. Do not panic and, my personal view, do not use your wildcard unless you cannot field eleven players with a 4 point hit. Even then, consider an eight point hit or a blank in one of your spots. That wildcard will have so much more firepower when using it to manipulate double gameweeks down the road.
Right, we are finished absorbing the impact of Week 22. Let us forge ahead with a look at Week 23...
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TO HAVE AND TO HOLD
So now it is time to look at the players to think about ahead of Week 4. As a reminder, there are four categories of players which I feel are worth mentioning week to week when making decisions about transfers....
1) Players to buy
2) Players to sell
3) Players to hold onto
4) Players to avoid buying
I will also include later in the section, my top choices for the captain’s armband. While I will consider every player from A to Z, you will normally find the usual suspects there.
Right, so let’s dive in...
GOALKEEPERS
*Just as a reminder, keepers should always be the last position to think about using transfers for, unless there is an urgent need. So, when you see who I have listed here, bear in mind that my keeper advice does not carry as much weight as the outfield positions.
Player to buy: Neil Etheridge - This week’s picks starts off with a rerun. Etheridge was my keeper of choice last week and, since I look at keepers as long term investments, it isn’t a huge surprise to see his name again on the heels of a double-digit haul. Week 22 was what you expect to happen every three or four games - Cardiff grinding out a point by playing to a 0-0. That scoreline loves to award bonus to keepers.
Player to sell: Kasper Schmeichel - Leicester’s defense this season has been average at best, though the last eleven weeks have been better than the first eleven. They may be due to struggle again though, as fixtures see them on the road this weekend and then three straight against the league’s top 3. You will likely see a few Foxes nominated as “sell” or “avoid” in the next couple of columns.
Player to hold: Vicente Guaita - Double whammy for Gauita owners. First, he was removed early last weekend with a calf injury. Then, you see that even if he recovers in time, he travels to Anfield this weekend. I would stick with him and even take a blank if that’s to happen. A blank may be better than playing Liverpool. But yeah, Palace’s fixtures are nice after this match, so I would just take whatever I get this weekend, even if it is nothing.
Player to avoid: Lukasz Fabianski - Fabianski has racked up points on teams that were not very good, so it feels uneasy to say “avoid” him. But, following his 9 point return last weekend, he is back in the top 5 scoring keepers for the season. I am put off by seeing that, of the Hammers next four games, three are on the road and the other is against the Reds. Give me Etheridge and an extra .2m left over instead.
DEFENDERS
Player to buy: Lucas Digne - I hope things change for the attacking positions, because now I have nominated my second buy for a second straight round. Actually, if you’ve been following the column for the past couple of months, Digne may have had more hype than any other defender. I suppose the fact that his emergence over that period has created a biased love for him. But, he really is the one to have if you don’t have him yet. Form, fixtures, attacking like a boss and cheap. Everything you could want.
Player to sell: Foxes not named Pereira - Big Pereira backer here. I was a bit worried in the first quarter of the season, if my love for him would prove wise. Well, it has become clear now, as his price tag has begun to take off. To be honest, I would not buy him now, but I would certainly keep rolling with him this week if I had him. The rest of the options, notably Ben Chilwell, probably need shipping out, if not this weekend, then the next. Ho-hum returns up until now and no reason to think improvement is coming soon with their fixtures.
Player to hold: Matt Doherty - Despite getting an assist against Spurs in Week 20, Doherty has still only averaged two points per game over the last five for Wolves, a trend that would see owners looking for reinforcements. Well, selling him now could be tragic. Wolves have some kind opponents on the schedule and, while clean sheet points seem to be a rare occasion, he is due for more attacking returns and they will be coming.
Player to avoid: Huddersfleid options - The Terriers are coming off of a clean sheet, so their defensive option, which are all dirt cheap, may come into thinking as enablers for other moves. Well, don’t look here. Huddersfield’s schedule is brutal and this is not the time of the season to add dead weight to your squad. You want decent options for your #4 and #5 defenders. This is not it.
MIDFIELDERS
Player to buy: Pedro - Maybe you don’t own Eden Hazard. Maybe that isn’t such a problem. There is player movement afoot at Stamford Bridge this month, with Gonzalo Higuain perhaps hours away from officially joining the club on loan, while Willian has been courted by Barcelona. Amid all the chaos, Pedro looks a pretty safe starter going forward. At 6.3m, his price is a total bargain. The only reason he is not priced in the 8.5m-9m range is his expected limited starts. Given Arsenal’s defensive record, I have no problem buying Pedro ahead of a trip to the Emirates.
Player to sell: Robert Snodgrass - Well, that experiment failed. It is not very often that I splurge on my #5 MID, but when Snodgrass began to make a buzz, I saw a chance to squeeze him into that spot and I took it. Took it right on the chin apparently, as his form dried up and now, the arrival of Samir Nasri has immediately seen Snodgrass drop down in the depth chart. I am not sold on Nasri as a buy, even at his harmless 5.5m price. My worry is that these veterans are going to split time and render them both FPL poison.
Player to hold: Dele Alli/Christian Eriksen - Yes, things are not looking up for Spurs following a tough loss to Man United and then seeing Heung-Min Son depart for the Asian Games as well as Harry Kane sidelined by injury for many weeks. One might think it is time to dismiss their attacking options entirely. I would pause, at least for one week. I think Dele Alli will particuarly benefit over the coming weeks, but for heaven’s sakes, do not sell him or Eriksen ahead of a matchuo with Fulham.
Player to avoid: Leicester options - If you have Leicester options in midfield, or any other position, you can go ahead and roll with them this week, though it is a tricky away fixture to Wolves. However, I officially ban any transfer in of Foxes starting now. A three game stretch against the league’s top three sides is too much for any manager to handle.
FORWARDS
Player to buy: Marcus Rashford - Right, so as predicted last week, Rashford is my #1 player to buy, at any position, headed into Week 23. I did not have enough confidence to buy him for the Spurs match but, like the whole world appears to be doing now, I am ready to open my wallet for him. I mean, what needs to be said about a player in his circumstance, with his form, going for that price? Avoiding him is approaching insanity.
Player to sell: Alexander Lacazette - There was a period where it seemed you could do no wrong in choosing one of Aubameyang or Lacazette as Arsenal coverage. Their comparable returns have begun to drift in different directions of late though, with Aubameyang staying somewhat consistent while Lacazette’s form has waned. He is also more prone to missing the starting XI and the Gunners have it tough with Chelsea and Man City in their next three.
Player to hold: Sergio Agüero - I told you to sell him last week. This is FPL, so things can turn on their head from one week to the next. You should know that by now. So, right, if you did not sell him last week, now is the time to stay put. Gabriel Jesus may be on fire but that has never stopped Pep Guardiola from making moves to keep his best players fresh and I just don’t see Aguero missing another consecutive start. With Kane out, owning Aguero this weekend could be a massive differential.
Player to avoid: Marko Arnautovic - Two reason to avoid really. One - personally, I am done developing ulcers over Arnie’s health status. As money as he can be when fit, it just isn’t sustained for long enough periods. Second - rumor is he is looking at a January exit from the club, and could very well be out of the PL before the month ends.
TOP CAPTAIN CHOICES
1) Mo Salah
3) Eden Hazard
4) Paul Pogba
5) Leroy Sane
That’s it from me this week folks. Please, bear in mind much can change between the publishing of this column and the FPL deadline on Saturday. Remember, some injuries are not revealed until just before the deadline. Always try to refrain from executing your transfers for as long as possible to avoid wasting it on a player who turns out to have had a problem in training. That said, if you only have just enough money for the player you are looking to bring in and that player is at risk of rising in price, then sometimes you need to take a calculated risk and hope the fantasy gods will be kind to you.
Good luck, and may your arrows be green.
