So, this is what a good week in FPL feels like. I could get used to it.
Entering Week 6, it had been five weeks of pain and suffering, where I had not scored so much as 50 points in any given round and my highest round rank was just below two million. I was so fed up with how things were going in Week 5, that I bent my own rules and ran out to buy Sergio Aguero, taking a four point hit in the process, after seeing the talisman explode with his hat trick. Apparently, knee-jerking was the right move, as I was just able to use every ounce of my budget to squeeze him in before his price rise would have bitten me.
Aguero replaced Chicharito and left me with a front three of Kun, Harry Kane and Romelu Lukaku. That, my friends, is why I was able to finally smile. The premium strikers across the league were proving their worth in Week 6 and, after the round had concluded, the general consensus of fantasy managers was - “I need to find a way to field three big forwards”. By having that recipe a week earlier, I was able to shave half a million off of my overall rank in one round. How long can an expensive front three work though? What happens when the likes of Alexis Sanchez and Eden Hazard become essential? Sadio Mane is back in the equation. With a big front three, I can only afford two premium midfielders, currently Christian Eriksen and Henrikh Mkhitaryan. My most expensive defender was 5m when I bought him. How long can I get away with cutting corners everywhere else in my squad to afford Aguero, Kane and Lukaku? Probably not for too long, but I am sure going to enjoy the current shape of my team until that time comes.
The big question facing managers this week is - who are the two or three big forwards to own? Aguero, Kane and Lukaku, along with Alvaro Morata and Alexander Lacazette all have cases to be made for inclusion. You will find there is another option to consider as you read on in this column, but here is my “mini-ranking” of these options heading into Week 7, based on what I project as total points scored over the next five weeks...
1) Harry Kane
2) Sergio Aguero
4) Alexander Lacazette
5) Alvaro Morata
I can see a case being made to rank Morata over Lacazette, but my hunch says that Morata cannot sustain his run of form whereas Lacazette could be entering his. Fixtures also play a part in my ranks. For me though, you cannot go wrong with Kane and Aguero as your big two strikers. I offer a mid-priced option as a third forward below, but if you can afford Lukaku, by all means...
Like it or not, there are three other positions on the pitch to address. So, with a 77 point round giving me confidence, it is time to take a look at the FPL landscape ahead of Week 7....
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TO HAVE AND TO HOLD
So now it is time to look at the players to think about ahead of Week 4. As a reminder, there are four categories of players which I feel are worth mentioning week to week when making decisions about transfers....
1) Players to buy
2) Players to sell
3) Players to hold onto
4) Players to avoid buying
I will also include later in the section, my top choices for the captain’s armband. While I will consider every player from A to Z, you will normally find the usual suspects there.
Right, so let’s dive in...
GOALKEEPERS
*Just as a reminder, keepers should always be the last position to think about using transfers for, unless there is an urgent need. So, when you see who I have listed here, bear in mind that my keeper advice does not carry as much weight as the outfield positions.
Player to buy: Lukasz Fabianski - Despite a disappointing 1-point return last weekend, I am keeping faith with Fabianski as the keeper to buy for the second straight week. Swansea’s defense has actually been better on the road, so they are capable of keeping their opponents out more often than one might think. He is also the current leader in saves, which provides another source of points. Opponents like West Ham, Huddersfield, Brighton, Burnley and Bournemouth in the next seven weeks offers some potential.
Player to sell: Mathew Ryan - If you started the season with Ryan as your budget keeper, it has unfortunately not worked out, though he pulled through last weekend with a nine point haul, nearly half his total on the season. I would take that haul and part company now, because it may be a while before he does it again, with a trip to the Emirates this weekend a daunting task.
Player to hold: Joe Hart - It was never looking a good bet for Hart to get something out of West Ham’s matchup with Spurs last weekend, but if they can keep the defensive momentum that was building prior to Tottenham, there could be some nice returns for Hart in the next few weeks. In the next four, he plays Swansea and Brighton at home, as well as Crystal Palace and Burnley away.
Player to avoid: Jonas Lossl - It has been a solid start to the season for Lossl, who is behind only David de Gea in points at the keeper position heading into Week 7, after securing his fourth clean sheet in the first six weeks. You may be disappointed if you invest now though - with Tottenham, Manchester United and Liverpool in three of the next four weeks.
DEFENDERS
Player to buy: Ryan Bertrand/Cedric - I am not hedging my bet here by nominating two Saints defenders, it is merely a matter of what your budget is looking like. Bertrand is likely the better weapon, if money is no object, though I question whether he is .5m better than Cedric for attacking potential. Either would be a sound buy, as the center back situation continues to transition, because Southampton has a great schedule - STK, NEW, WBA, BHA, and BUR in the next five.
Player to sell: Jose Holebas - It was a love/hate affair for Holebas owners last season, as it was a race to see whether he would collect more assists or yellow cards on the season. Somehow, after six weeks this season, he has only one of each. With a trip to The Hawthorns this weekend, I would bet a yellow card is more likely, but beyond that, its a tough road for the Hornets, with Arsenal and Chelsea in Weeks 8 and 9. A straight swap for Cedric looks profitable.
Player to hold: Leighton Baines - It has been a terrible start to the fantasy season for Everton defenders, who have not kept a clean sheet since the opening weekend. Even with a a couple of center backs in a fitness race for the weekend though, I would still give Baines a couple more weeks, where they host Burnley and travel to Brighton, before dumping.
Player to avoid: Antonio Rudiger - Rudiger will almost certainly start this weekend for the Blues, which would give him six starts in the first seven weeks of the season. That might sway managers into thinking he has a regular spot in the XI and can be had for less than 6m. The fact is though, he has been the fortunate beneficiary of suspensions to Gary Cahill and David Luiz. Once Luiz returns, the back three should consist of Cesar Azpilicueta, Cahill and Luiz. Rudiger is the odd man out.
MIDFIELDERS
Player to buy: Aaron Ramsey - If you have room for a Man City attacker in your midfield, take your pick from Leroy Sane, David Silva or Raheem Sterling, but with a trip to Stamford Bridge this weekend, I am looking elsewhere if buying a midfielder in Week 7. Ramsey intrigues me because he has scored or assisted in half of Arsenal’s matches thus far, with limited minutes early on. For 7m, he looks a great way to get some Arsenal coverage while still offering the potential with your budget to field three premium strikers.
Player to sell: Anthony Knockaert - This one is particularly tough to comment on, as I currently have Knockaert in my side. He has yet to find his feet in the top flight and a trip to the Emirates this weekend does not have me brimming with confidence that this will be his breakout week. The regret of opting for him over Matt Ritchie a few weeks ago will haunt my dreams. The irony is, Knockaert is having a season like Ritchie did a couple of seasons ago, when the latter looked a great prospect for then-promoted Bournemouth.
Player to hold: Dusan Tadic - Frustration for Tadic owners in FPL has been well-documented over the past few seasons, and he has gone four weeks without a return. Perhaps I am putting too much faith in the fixtures but the Saints have five solid matchups in a row starting this weekend. I would be keeping and starting Tadic, Nathan Redmond or even Steven Davis if I owned them despite a lackluster attacking display by Southampton so far this season.
Player to avoid: Pedro - Goals will grab a fantasy manager’s attention quicker than anything so folks might be thinking about Pedro after his score this past weekend. I would definitely avoid buying him though. His spot in the XI is not necessarily secure. After three weeks of coming off of the bench, Eden Hazard looks destined to take a spot in the attack and Willian will always provide Antonio Conte an alternative to Pedro. Alvaro Morata looks the only safe attacking option. I would rather look to Marcos Alonso as an alternative than I would any midfielders.
FORWARDS
Player to buy: Jamie Vardy - Let’s be clear. There is a case to be made to make room for Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku, Sergio Aguero, Alvaro Morata and Alexander Lacazette. I would not fault you for buying any from that lot. However, if you want a “big front three” without spending too much, I think Vardy can keep up with the pack over the next few weeks as your third striker. The form is there - scoring in three straight. The fixtures are there as well.
*UPDATE - Minutes after publishing this column, news broke that Vardy is dealing with a hip injury and is not training at the moment. It is time to pay the big bucks for a premium forward. If you need to spend points to make it happen, I would opt for Kane, Lukaku or Lacazette. I feel better about their chances of paying those points back immediately this weekend, versus Morata or Aguero as Chelsea and City square off.
Player to sell: Roberto Firmino - Three straight blanks for the Brazilian while other big names are scoring has caused a massive offloading of Firmino this week, and I am not going to try and be too cute to nominate someone else to drop. We all know Firmino could dip in the points again at any time, but a straight swap for Vardy looks to offer an owner more.
Player to hold: Marcus Rashford - It has been a couple of quiet games for Rashford and I can understand if you want to switch him out for a premium striker, but if you need to spend points to make it happen, I would think about holding him for one more week. It is a home game against Crystal Palace. This looks to be another United game where it’s 1-0 until about the 75th minute, then United score three more.
Player to avoid: Oumar Niasse - In other formats, Niasse made for a nice plug-and-play last weekend, scoring a brace, but I think you will be wasting time and a transfer in the FPL format. His brace has likely earned him a run in the side, but how long will that run last? For me, the risk of dropping out of the XI sooner rather than later outweighs the potential reward of a tantalizingly-priced 5m forward.
TOP CAPTAIN CHOICES
1) Harry Kane
3) Sergio Aguero
4) Alexander Lacazette
5) Alvaro Morata
That’s it from me this week folks. Please, bear in mind much can change between the publishing of this column and the FPL deadline on Saturday. Remember, some injuries are not revealed until just before the deadline. Always try to refrain from executing your transfers for as long as possible to avoid wasting it on a player who turns out to have had a problem in training. That said, if you only have just enough money for the player you are looking to bring in and that player is at risk of rising in price, then sometimes you need to take a calculated risk and hope the fantasy gods will be kind to you.
Good luck, and may your arrows be green.
