Stag’s Take – Gameweek 1
Even without a World Cup to entertain us, football continued to enthral us ever since the final ball was kicked at the end of the last Premier League season. The Women’s World Cup, a host of senior and underage continental competitions, and an enthralling transfer window were enough to keep our FPL minds ticking over though; What does Alexis’ good form for Chile tell us? Will Mané’s long AFCON campaign mean he misses the early Gameweeks? To what extent will the introduction of VAR affect the awarding in the PL this term?
After a summer of unbridled questioning, most of which formed in the vacant space in the minds of all of us where FPL pondering tends to reside, Fantasy Premier League finally returns on Friday.
In this article, Part One of a two part series, I hope to take your hand and walk you through the debates which have raged about both the defender and goalkeeper slots in your 15 man squad, providing a succinct but useful analysis and my own overall conclusions for my own Gameweek 1 team. Part Two will consider midfielders and forwards, you can jump straight to it HERE.
Good luck for the coming season, may your arrows be green for 38 successive gameweeks!
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Goalkeepers
Each year, a debate ranges about whether a strategy of rotating ‘keepers or a “set and forget” is the way forward. I had always been somebody who felt that the rotating pair was a more elegant (and of course cheaper) use of the two shot stopper slots. However, my experience last term was the last piece of empirical evidence I needed to turn my back on the strategy. Ben Hamer, seemingly nailed on to start weekly for Huddersfield at 4.0 paired quite well with Ben Foster. This worked well right up until Hamer lost his position and I spent a solid half of the season firmly hitched to the Ben Foster wagon. Any wish I had to swap him was always on the backburner when put up against a move for an attacker – interchanging ‘keepers wouldn’t pay back a transfer, not to mind a four point hit. It was also difficult to find a suitably priced swap also; rarely will there be an in-form keeper available without freeing up funds from elsewhere in the squad.
By opting for Man City’s Ederson, I will always have the budget available to bring in any other ‘keeper in the game. However, save for an injury, it is unlikely that I will need to worry about this as City’s defence has shown no signs of ceasing clean sheet production every other week (or so) of the season. Ederson is also the easiest route into City’s defence unless you blow the bank on Aymeric Laporte (6.5), money I believe you can spend better elsewhere. You could make the “access into a top class defence” argument about Liverpool’s Alisson too, but that completely ignores the unbelievable choice of “nailed on” attackers from front to back in the Liverpool side who you’ll want to get in your side. Save for Raheem Sterling and perhaps Sergio Agüero, City players don’t have the same allure.
There are, of course, quite a few good set and forget options priced at 5.5 also, but questions hang over each of them. What Manchester United will turn up this season? Can Everton defend without Gueye? How good can Spurs’ defence be? Can Lampard organise Chelsea’s backline? To be honest, I am receptive to arguments for each of these options but I am reticent to invest right now – may I’ll change my tack when I deploy my first Wildcard. There are too many questions about United and Chelsea for now; I would rather have one particular Everton defender. My Spurs feelings cannot be explained in a line, but I won’t feel good about them until I see them play.
Another instructive read on getting good “value” from your goalkeepers is found in a report by Who Got The Assist. Their study, which looked at the individual scores from last season but assessed them with this season’s prices in mind, highlights the predictable value delivered to you by Alisson and Ederson. Sure, it would be great if you can identify a cheaper ‘keeper who keeps pace with their scoring a la Neil Etheridge did last term, but that’s not a straightforward task.
Defenders
Last season proved that many defenders can score points like their more attacking counterparts. The league’s two titans, Liverpool and City, keep so many shutouts and rely on their defenders to chip in with scores to such a degree that two of the seven players who broke the 200 point barrier were defenders, namely Andy Robertson (7.0) and Virgil Van Dijk (6.55). Trent Alexander-Arnold (who played over 750 minutes less than his two teammates), Laporte, David Luiz, Marcos Alonso, César Azpilicueta, Lucas Digne, and Kyle Walker all surpassed the 150 mark.
The Liverpool trio who filled the defender points podium that are understandably attracting the most attention though. On a per game basis, TAA kept up with and surpassed his opposite wing-back Robbo in terms of chance creation. Both teed up teammates for shots at least 50 times whilst Robertson shaded the English youngster in terms of “big chances” created (15; 11). Over the course of this season, entering just his third season as a true first team player at Liverpool, TAA should stretch ahead of Robbo in terms of both goals and assists. The Scot poses a near negligible goal threat whilst TAA actually fired the 12th most attempts of all defenders in FPL in spite of effectively missing a quarter of the season. It should be noted that few of those attempts came from inside the box, but some did come from his set pieces. As we saw in the Community Shield though, TAA’s position in the Reds’ side isn’t necessarily safe, particularly against top opposition. Trent was hooked in favour of Joel Matip after 67’ as he continued to get skinned down his flank, with Joe Gomez moving out right.
Van Dijk provides the surety of starts and an undeniable goal threat which makes him stand out when priced at 0.5 less than the other two full-backs. The Dutchman was joint-second for goals scored by defenders with a host of others (4) but he did so whilst ranked fifth for shots in the box, which is encouraging. To start the season at least, van Dijk will be my premium defender, but I will be monitoring the TAA situation carefully as he is a shoo-in to outscore every defender if he starts at least 30 games this season.
The City defence situation is difficult. Of course, they are a good unit but new signings, Kyle Walker’s lack of attacking threat, and “Pep Roulette” with rotation means that there is no stand out option available. It had appeared that Oleksandr Zinchenko (5.5) could be an early answer to our prayers but the arrival of Cancelo and Ben Mendy’s impending return to fitness makes him a short term fix and, worse still, an obligatory transfer in waiting. Laporte cannot justify his price compared to the premium Liverpool defenders, in my opinion.
Recording impressive figures just behind the Liverpool triplet was Lucas Digne. The Everton left-back ranked eighth for attempts on goal by defenders and created the most chances of all of them, wit the second highest “big chances created” stats of all his defensive counterparts. To say Everton’s defensive fortunes were changeable last term would be an understatement, but one expects that another pre-season under Silva should take them further along the road and give Digne’s points a further boost with more clean sheets. Even when things were poor for the Toffees last term, Digne seemed to always find a way to pay back his owners; don’t be the non-owner feeling burnt.
Mid-priced defenders are an awkward set to work out. Wolves, Leicester and Crystal Palace supply the bulk of those outside the Top Six. The (heartbreaking) Matt Doherty price hike, Wolves and Leicester’s tough early fixtures, and clear uncertainty about Roy Hodgson’s first choice defence creates a situation where there is no identifiable “must have” at this point in time. Within the Top Six, I think it takes the optimism of a fan to plump up for a United or Arsenal defender right now. Both teams’ underlying defensive stats last term were firmly midtable. Kyle Walker-Peters (5.0) looked like a scrap of value in Spurs’ defence for the late pre-season period but already it appears that Serge Aurier will be back to rotate with the youngster imminently. He is, at best, a short term option. Rather than deal with this price point, I am tempted to mix just cheap and premium defenders.
Selecting a 4.5 defender is completely a choice based on clean sheets; there are no truly “attacking” defenders in this category. Bournemouth’s transfer activity and seemingly a resolution of their goalkeeper problem gives me confidence that they will improve on the numbers they recorded last term. However, the Cherries also appear to have the most attractive 4.0 defender option in Diego Rico, meaning that I haven’t brought any of his more expensive teammates into my squad. Of the promoted sides, Sheffield United look to be the most defensively solid and I have strongly considered O’Connell and Basham. If Sheffield United are to survive in the PL, set pieces will play a big role in their goalscoring. In their final 17 fixtures last season, 58% of all their goals came from set plays (10). All three of O’Connell’s three goals last term came through this route.
Ryan Fredericks (4.5) from West Ham is also attracting my attention. He seems to have locked down a starting role in Manuel Pellegrini’s backline for the coming campaign and should be an important piece of aerial specialist Sebastian Haller’s supply chain. The new signing from the Bundesliga won more aerial duels than any other Bundesliga player last term and held a conversion rate of 58.3% in a season where he scored 15 goals. I’m hopeful Fredericks may peg an assist or two for the French forward. In terms of raw defensive stats, Burnley provide the best way to access clean sheet potential at a good price. I’d go for Charlie Taylor.
That’s Part One wrapped up. Click here for Part Two, which looks at midfielders and forwards.
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Stag has been providing #FPL Tips since July 2015 and has been a contributor for Rotoworld.com since August 2016. He is a self-proclaimed wannabe fantasy football genius, a student, and die-hard tea enthusiast.
