With the azaleas and dogwoods in full bloom, golf’s greats have gathered in Augusta for the 2026 Masters. Sitting in Butler Cabin and wearing the Green Jacket Sunday evening is at the top of every golfer’s bucket list…but not every golfer is really a contender this week.
So who gets fitted for a green jacket this weekend and joins one of the most exclusive clubs on the planet? Or will we see a repeat winner who will join the even more exclusive group of multiple winners?
Lets dive into the odds and find a few sweats as we eagerly await the ceremonial tee shots Thursday at golf’s most prestigious event.
There are multiple ways to attack the tournament, but we will take two paths. The first will be looking at the trends from the past decade. Then we will look individually at select players.
Let’s begin with a not-so-broad brush from the past decade of Masters’ champions.
Each of the last ten winners were ranked in the Top 25 in the World Golf Rankings.
Here are those 25 players:
Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, Tommy Fleetwood, J.J. Spaun, Matt Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa, Robert MacIntyre, Justin Rose, Xander Schauffele, Chris Gotterup, Russell Henley, Sepp Straka, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Ben Griffin, Ludvig Aberg, Jacob Bridgeman, Alex Noren, Harris English, Akshay Bhatia, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Reed, Bryson DeChambeau, and Min Woo Lee
Assuming for this exercise that the winner will come from those 25 golfers. Let’s whittle that list down a bit. Nine of the last ten winners have made at least three cuts at the Masters including the year prior to their victory. If that is a stat you believe carries weight, that eliminates Young, Spaun, MacIntyre, Gotterup, Straka, Griffin, Aberg, Bridgeman, Bhatia, and Lee.
Next, nine of the last ten winners finished Top Ten at least once in their previous three starts somewhere in the world. That eliminates World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, last year’s runner-up Justin Rose, former winner Matsuyama, and the quartet of Noren, English, Hovland, and Reed.
Left standing are the following golfers and their odds to win courtesy of DraftKings:
Rory McIlroy (+1175), Tommy Fleetwood (+2250), Matt Fitzpatrick (+2350), Collin Morikawa (+3100), Xander Schauffele (+1800), Russell Henley (+4700), Justin Thomas (+5400), and Bryson DeChambeau (+1050).
Of this group, Matt Fitzpatrick is the play. Without question he is in the best form, winning at Valspar and finishing second at The Players in his last two events. For the season he ranks first overall Tee to Green on the TOUR. He ranks fourth in accuracy off the tee and while not a bomber Fitz does average 305 yards off the tee. That is long enough to maneuver around Augusta. Full reveal and the wart on the resume is the putter. Fitzpatrick ranks 96th in shots gained putting. That said, he won at Valspar ranking 42nd in the field on the greens. He finished second at The Players even though he was outside the Top 20 putting that week as well. To drill a bit deeper, Fitzpatrick makes 97-98% of his 3-5 foot putts which is average for a TOUR player but not elite. From 5-10 feet the 2022 U.S. Open Champion is below average converting at 52-54% which is not as good as Scottie Scheffler (55-56%), but better than Rory McIlroy (50-52%), and Collin Morikawa (46-48%). Factor in his history at Augusta – 10 cuts made in 11 appearances and the ingredients for success on golf’s grandest stage are there.
We’ll look to add plays as the day unfolds but anything 20:1 or better on Matt Fitzpatrick to wear green at the end of the weekend is worth the sweat.
Enjoy what is always the most special weekend of golf on the calendar.
