Michigan State won the Big Ten’s regular season title by multiple games, but don’t think the next step will be a cakewalk.
As 15 teams descend on Indianapolis for the new iteration of the TIAA Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament this week, the conference’s additions have contributed to its incredible depth. Ten teams are projected to make this field -- including two teams, Oregon and UCLA, in their debut seasons in the Big Ten.
Last year, the Big Ten sent six teams to the NCAA Tournament. This year, it is projected to have eight teams on the 7-seed line or better. There is a lot of talent in the conference, and plenty of teams are capable of winning the Big Ten tournament. It should make for a lot of fun, which starts with the three first-round games Wednesday, all on Peacock.
Let’s take a look at projected NCAA Tournament seedings for the Big Ten before the action commences:
No. 7 Michigan State Spartans
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 2
Big Ten tournament: No. 1 seed, First- and Second-Round Bye
Make no mistake, the Spartans are the clear favorites in Indianapolis. They enter the festivities riding a seven-game winning streak, all Quad 1 victories. It is as impressive a stretch as any team has had in college basketball this season, and they punctuated it with a 79-62 blowout of rival Michigan at Breslin Center Sunday.
No. 11 Maryland Terrapins
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 4
Big Ten tournament: No. 2 seed, First- and Second-Round Bye
The Terrapins’ season has gone a bit under the radar compared to Tom Izzo’s Michigan State team, but this is an elite squad. Both the NET Rankings and KenPom see Maryland as a top-12 team, so perhaps putting them on the 4-seed line is underrating them. A deep run in the Big Ten tournament would leave no doubt that the Terps deserve a 3-seed.
No. 18 Wisconsin Badgers
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 4
Big Ten tournament: No. 5 seed, First-Round Bye
Wisconsin has ended its season with a bit of a whimper. The Badgers lost three of their final five games, with their only wins coming against non-tournament teams in Washington and Minnesota. Losing by 11 at home to Penn State, which finished second to last in the conference, was the nasty capper. We’ll see if the Badgers can regain momentum in Indy.
No. 20 Purdue Boilermakers
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 4
Big Ten tournament: No. 6 seed, First-Round Bye
The Boilermakers have been knocked from the perch atop the conference they have inhabited in recent years, but this is still a dangerous team. An elite offense is the best indicator of postseason success, and Purdue ranks top-10 in the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency statistic. Don’t sleep on the Boilermakers.
No. 23 Oregon Ducks
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 5
Big Ten tournament: No. 8 seed, First-Round Bye, vs. Indiana Thu.
The Ducks have matched Michigan State’s seven-game win streak to conclude the season, although only two of those wins came in Quad 1 games. Still, Oregon is in a good spot, receiving a first-round bye and preparing for an Indiana team it just beat handily on Tuesday.
No. 22 Michigan Wolverines
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 6
Big Ten tournament: No. 3 seed, First- and Second-Round Bye
The Wolverines have been shaky in the conclusion to the season to say the least. They lost their final three games, four of their last six, and those four losses came by an average of 14 points. Still, all four were also against teams ranked top-15 in NET, so one could chalk it up to a tough slate at the end of a tiring season. Still, the Wolverines don’t seem to belong in the conference’s top class.
UCLA Bruins
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 6
Big Ten tournament: No. 4 seed, First- and Second-Round Bye
Not much has changed for the perception of UCLA recently. We know this is an elite defensive team (top-15 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric) and we know it’s an uneven team because of a lack of reliable offensive production (4-3 in their final seven games). Snagging a double-bye is crucial and sets up a potential first-game clash with Wisconsin.
No. 24 Illinois Fighting Illini
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 7
Big Ten tournament: No. 7 seed, First-Round Bye
The Fighting Illini appear to be rounding into form just in time. After skating through much of the season mixing great performances with poor ones, Illinois is finally getting healthy and showing it on the court. A dominant road win at Michigan and a high-energy home victory over Purdue to end the regular season show what a team with this talent level can accomplish when it plays together.
Indiana Hoosiers
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 11
Big Ten tournament: No. 9 seed, First-Round Bye, vs. Oregon Thu.
The Hoosiers’ thrilling home victory over fellow bubble team Ohio State in the regular season finale should have them feeling optimistic about their tournament chances. Getting revenge on Oregon would be a good way to solidify that feeling, and Indiana will have the homecourt advantage against a team almost 2,000 miles from home.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: 12 (First Four)
Big Ten tournament: No. 10 seed, vs. Iowa Wed. (Peacock)
As the team on the other side of that fantastic finale in Bloomington, Ohio State has work to do. The Buckeyes get the benefit of the doubt because of their strength of schedule, but they still finished the season 17-14. That’s a tough sell for the committee, even in an elite conference. The Buckeyes might have to go on a bit of a run in the Big Ten tournament, but they are absolutely capable.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Projected NCAA Tournament seed: Out
Big Ten tournament: Did not qualify
Not making the Big Ten tournament is a death knell for the Cornhuskers’ NCAA Tournament hopes. They looked like a lock just a few weeks ago, but losing your final five games will put a damper on your resume. Time for Fred Hoiberg to go back to the drawing board and try to come back better next season.
