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Michigan vs. Alabama NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 predictions: Odds, recent stats, trends and best bets

The top-seed in the Midwest Region, the Michigan Wolverines, face the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide tonight in Chicago for the right to play in the Elite 8 over the weekend.

Michigan has been one of the dominant teams in the country at both ends of the floor all season long. Few teams can compete with their length, athleticism, and discipline. Dusty May has the Wolverines’ offense and defense each ranked in the Top Ten in efficiency in the entire nation.

Alabama, led by Head Coach Nate Oats, is in the Sweet 16 after running over Texas Tech, 90-65. It is the fourth consecutive season the Tide has reached the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Calling the Tide’s offense up-tempo is a disservice to their constant efforts to push the ball on offense at every opportunity. They rank 4th nationally in pace. If they are not getting to the rim, they are taking threes. Knowing Michigan is elite at defending at the rim, expect a high volume of threes from Bama.

If Bama can’t knock down shots and pull Michigan away from the rim, however, they stand little chance of advancing. For their part, Michigan needs to dominate the glass and the paint while also controlling the pace.

Player absences will play a role. Alabama continues to compete without suspended guard Aden Holloway, and Michigan remains without L.J. Cason due to a knee injury. While Holloway’s scoring has certainly been missed, the absence of his minutes alone will likely be a big factor against a physically punishing Michigan team. Cason’s injury is also a storyline. The Wolverines have learned to play without him, but he was more than his eight points and two rebounds per game would suggest.

Lets take a closer look at tonight’s matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Game Details and How to Watch Live: Michigan vs. Alabama

  • Date: Friday, March 27, 2026
  • Time: 7:35PM EST
  • Site: United Center
  • City: Chicago, IL
  • Network/Streaming: TBS, truTV

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Game Odds: Michigan Wolverines vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Michigan Wolverines (-485), Alabama Crimson Tide (+370)
  • Spread: Michigan -8.5
  • Total: 172.5 points

This game opened Michigan -10.5 with the Total set at 175.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NCAA Basketball schedule!

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Expected Starting Lineups: Michigan vs. Alabama

Michigan Wolverines

  • G Nimari Burnett
  • G Elliott Cadeau
  • F Yaxel Lendeborg
  • F Morez Johnson Jr.
  • C Aday Mara

Alabama Crimson Tide

  • G Labaron Philon Jr.
  • G Latrell Wrightsell
  • G Aiden Sherrell
  • F Amari Allen
  • F London Jemison

Important stats, trends and insights: Michigan vs. Alabama

  • Alabama is 16-18 ATS this season
  • Michigan is 16-20 ATS this season
  • The OVER has cashed in 18 of Bama’s 34 games this season (18-16)
  • The OVER has cashed in 15 of Michigan’s 36 games this season (15-21)
  • Yaxel Lendeborg is 11-18 from the field (4-8 from deep) and averaging 17 points per game in the NCAA Tournament
  • Morez Johnson Jr. is averaging 9 rebounds per game in the Tournament
  • Labaron Philon Jr. 12-30 from the field including 5-15 from beyond the arc in the Tournament
  • Aiden Sherrell was a perfect 4-4 from the field and scored 10 points in the Round of 32 against Texas Tech
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Rotoworld Best Bet

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NCAA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Friday’s game between Michigan and Alabama:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on Michigan -8.5
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total UNDER 171.5

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

  • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
  • Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
  • Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
  • Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
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Michigan.png Michigan Wolverines
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