Today is the day! The NCAA Tournament Round of 64 begins and it’s time to get your last minute futures bets in! Here are my best bets for teams to make the Sweet 16, Elite 8 and win the entire tournament. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
To Make the Elite 8: Houston Cougars (+110)
After getting a taste of a National Championship last year, I think the Houston Cougars will make another deep run in the tournament. Houston has the fifth-ranked offense at KenPom and 13th-rated offense, the seventh-best offensive turnover percentage, and 12th-best defensive turnover percentage. The Cougars can grind you out with their 352nd-ranked tempo, and they also have an improved offense thanks to the guard play of freshman Kingston Flemmings and the emergence of sophomore Mercy Miller.
Since Houston’s three-game losing streak, the Cougars rank seventh overall at Barttorvik with the 26th-rated offense and 9th-ranked defense. Houston has a dominant defense that ranks fifth since the New Year, thanks to the mind of Kelvin Sampson and the big man duo of Joseph Tugler and Chris Cenac.
To make the Sweet 16, Houston will have to go through No. 15 Idaho in the round of 64, No. 7 Saint Mary’s or No. 10 Texas A&M in the round of 32, then No. 3 Illinois, No. 6 North Carolina, No. 11 VCU, or No. 14 Penn in the Sweet 16. That is a winnable stretch, especially the first two matchups with Idaho and either Saint Mary’s or Texas A&M.
For +100 odds, Houston is a good bet to make it back to the Elite 8 and has arguably the best defense in the country, as Duke and Michigan are dealing with injuries.
Pick: Houston to make the Elite 8 (1u)
To Make the Elite 8: Iowa State Cyclones (-130)
Iowa State is one of my favorite picks to win it all this season, and it really depends on a few things, like free-throw shooting and quality of shots. The Cyclones are led by senior guard Tamir Lipsey and have a plethora of shooters around him, like Milan Momcilovic (49.6% from three) and Joshua Jefferson (47% from the field). All three of those players average double-digits and more than 30 minutes per game to form their version of a big-three, and that group can take this team far.
In the round of 64 and 32, Iowa State shouldn’t have any problems. No. 15 Tennessee State should get stomped on, while the second round matchup of Kentucky or Santa Clara shouldn’t strike fear into the Cyclones. Kentucky may get bounced in the first round with its $22 million roster, while Santa Clara lost to Arizona State this season — the same Sun Devils team that Iowa State beat by 21 and 39 points in two of their last three games.
After that, the Sweet 16 matchup would be either No. 3 Virginia, No. 6 Tennessee, or No. 11 Miami (OH). If the RedHawks make it to the Sweet 16, we already made some good money at +3000, but you better believe I will be fading the mess out of Miami, while Iowa State could certainly outshoot Virginia and Tennessee. The Cyclones’ only downfall is their free-throw shooting (67.2%, 340th), but the Vols aren’t much better (69.4%, 289th). While the Cavaliers (72.6%, 180th) are better in that area, Virginia doesn’t force turnovers (15,6%, 248th) enough to beat a team like Iowa State, which thrives off chaos.
At -130 odds, the story is already written, in my opinion. I think Iowa State makes at least the Elite 8 after losing in the round of 32, Sweet 16, and round of 64 over the last three seasons.
Pick: Iowa State to make the Elite 8 (1u)
To Make the Elite 8: Purdue Boilermakers (+105)
Purdue has one of the easiest paths to the Elite 8 of any team, maybe the easiest! Purdue will play No. 15 Queens in the opening round, then either No. 7 Miami or No. 10 Missouri. That round of 32 matchup shouldn’t be much of a sweat for the Boilermakers, considering the size of Purdue and guard play.
Missouri enters the tournament on a three-game losing streak, while Miami dropped two of the past three. Plus, Miami has a totally revamped roster with 0% minute continuity from last year and two of Missouri’s three seniors in the starting lineup after transfers. Purdue’s veteran team with four seniors in the starting lineup should blow past either program.
In the Sweet 16, Purdue would face either No. 3 Gonzaga, No. 6 BYU, or No. 11 Texas. Again, that is a lovely matchup either way. In non-conference action, Gonzaga beat Alabama and Kentucky, but lost 100-61 to Michigan. Purdue went 1-1 versus Michigan this year and was built to compete with the Wolverines thanks to their size and pick-and-roll play. Gonzaga’s tallest starter is 6-foot-9, and one of their guards is a freshman, which won’t bode well for the Bulldogs if that’s the matchup.
Purdue would score 100-plus points on BYU’s defense, and half of Texas’ team would likely foul out trying to guard Braden Smith and Trey Kauffman-Renn. At +105 odds, Purdue to make the Elite 8 is a valuable bet, in my opinion.
Pick: Purdue to make the Elite 8 (1u)
To Make the Sweet 16: Virginia Cavaliers (-125)
Virginia almost made the cut for teams ranked top 25 for both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’re 27th on offense and 18th on defense, plus rank top 32 in two-point (44.7%, 7th) and three-point (30.9%, 32nd) defensive percentage. The Cavaliers have two flame throwers from deep in Sam Lewis and Malik Thomas, who shoot 40.7% and 34.3% from three-point range, plus they are a well-balanced team with nine different players who average at least 16 minutes.
Virginia is one of the most underrated squads in the entire field and could make a run to the Sweet 16. The Cavaliers are a -17.5 to -18.5 point favorite in the round of 64 over Wright State, then have a date with either No. 6 Tennessee or No. 11 Miami (OH). For the sake of likely outcomes, we’ll say Tennessee is the matchup.
Tennessee is a strange team this year as they show top 40 rankings both ways, but don’t always play like it. The Vols shoot 69.4% from the free-throw line (248th), and their offense ranked 10th out of 16 teams in SEC play, to go along with the second-highest offensive turnover percentage (17%). Outside of rebounding, Tennessee struggled mightily in conference play and has problems that Virginia can exploit. At -125 odds, I think Virginia is a good bet to make the Sweet 16 compared to Tennessee’s price of +100, which tells me the Cavaliers are the better pick.
Pick: Virginia to make the Sweet 16 (1 unit)
To Make the Sweet 16: Texas Longhorns (+650), Miami RedHawks (+3000)
At least one of the first four teams has made the round of 32 in 12 out of the last 14 years and the Sweet 16 in five out of those 14 seasons. Last year was actually the first year that all four first four teams lost in the round of 64, so this is a bounce back year for the group.
Fortunately, Texas and Miami (OH) have favorable first-round matchups for an upset. Texas is a +2.5 point underdog against BYU, and Miami is a +11.5 underdog against Tennessee. BYU is one of the bottom-five ranked defenses in the Big 12 and only shoots 33% from three-point range in conference play, plus allows an absurd 41.9% from three without Richie Saunders (348th in the nation). Texas can take advantage of BYU’s weak defense, and as long as the Longhorns don’t become addicted to fouling, then Texas can win this game behind its 18th-ranked offense and top-100 defense.
After BYU, Texas would have a date with either Gonzaga or Kennesaw State. For the sake of the article, we will assume it’s Gonzaga. The Bulldogs shoot 69.9% from the free-throw line (274th) and struggled from three in WCC play with a 31.8% mark (10th out of 12). Only 23.5% of Gonzaga’s points come from three (343rd) as they live inside the paint (60.3% of their points, 3rd-most). Most of Texas’ opponents’ points come from the free-throw line (22.7%, 51st-most), and these would be two of the six-oldest teams in the country if they met. The Longhorns could make a run to the Sweet 16, and the odds dropped from +900 to +675 overnight, so I think there is significant value there.
For Tennessee, the Vols are one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the country at 69.4% (289th) and struggled offenively in SEC play, ranking 12th or worse (out of 16 teams) in effective field goal percentage (49.7%), turnover percentage (17%), three-point percentage (33%), and two-point percentage (49.8%). Miami’s offense plays fast (41st-quickest) and is efficient (61st overall) compared to Tennessee. The RedHawks shoot well from deep (37.6%, 22nd), while the Vols only score 24.5% of their points from deep (333rd). If this becomes a shootout, Miami has a chance.
If Miami were to sneak past Tennessee, then the Round of 32 matchup would be versus Virginia or Wright State. I actually took Virginia to make the Sweet 16 at -115 and -130 odds, but had to hedge a little with Miami at +3000. The RedHawks could take advantage of the Cavaliers’ weak three-point offense (33.2%) during their ACC action and their bottom-five turnover percentages in league play. At +3000 odds, why not take a nibble on Miami to make the Sweet 16 after all the commotion they have caused this year?
Picks: Texas to make the Sweet 16 (0.25u), Miami (OH) to make the Sweet 16 (0.25u)
National Champion: Arizona Wildcats (+380), Houston Cougars (+1200), Iowa State Cyclones (+1800)
As an advid follower of the Big Ten, I want to pick a team to end the conferences 21-year drought, but I am rolling with the Big 12 and taking the top three teams of the conference: Arizona, Houston, and Iowa State. All three teams are built to win a championship with stellar guard play, dominant and physical big men, terrific coaching, and sharp shooting.
These three teams, in particular, rank No. 3, 4, and 5 in defensive efficiency according to KenPom and are top 20 offensively. The three all have ideal turnover and rebounding percentages, plus plenty of veteran leadership and minute continuity from last season. These squads weren’t put together overnight.
At +380, +1200, and +1800, I like a sprinkle on all three teams to win the National Championship.
Picks: Arizona to win the Natty (1u), Houston to win the Natty (0.5u), Iowa State to win the Natty (0.5u)
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NCAA Basketball schedule!
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