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No. 1 Duke vs. No. 9 TCU NCAA Tournament Second Round predictions: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets

The second round of the East Region of the NCAA Tournament continues Saturday with No. 1 Duke taking the court against No. 9 TCU in Greenville, SC.

Duke survived their opening round game against Siena Thursday afternoon, narrowly escaping with a 71-65 victory. Jon Scheyer’s squad trailed by double digits at halftime. Injuries to starters Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II placed a heavy burden on standout freshman forward Cameron Boozer (22 points, 13 rebounds) and the rest of what is now just a seven-man rotation for Duke.

TCU advanced to the Round of 32 after a hard-fought 66-64 win over Ohio State, led by a balanced attack from Micah Robinson (18 points) and David Punch (16 points, 13 rebounds). No surprise that this was one of the lower-scoring games of Day 1 of the Tournament. Under Head Coach Jamie Dixon, TCU ranks 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency and excels at forcing turnovers.

This Saturday marks the first-ever meeting between these two programs in men’s basketball. TCU is seeking just their second win in program history against a team ranked No. 1 in the nation. The outcome will likely hinge on whether TCU’s defensive ball-pressure can disrupt Duke’s lack of depth or if Boozer’s elite interior presence will be too much for the Horned Frogs to contain.

Lets take a closer look at this Second Round matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Game Details and How to Watch Live: Duke vs. TCU

  • Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
  • Time: 5:15PM EST
  • Site: Bon Secours Wellness Arena
  • City: Greenville, SC
  • Network/Streaming: CBS

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Game Odds: Duke vs. TCU

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Duke Blue Devils (-700) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (+500)
  • Spread: Duke -11.5
  • Total: 139.5 points

This game opened Duke -12.5 with the Total set at 138.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NCAA Basketball schedule!

Duke, Michigan may be on March Madness upset alert
Drew Dinsick and Vaughn Dalzell debate which No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament are the most vulnerable, sharing why Duke won't have "a clear path to the Final Four" in a stacked East Region.

Expected Starting Lineups: Duke vs. TCU

Duke Blue Devils

  • G Isaiah Evans
  • G Caydon Boozer
  • G Dame Sarr
  • F Cameron Boozer
  • F Maliq Brown

TCU Horned Frogs

  • G Brock Harding
  • G Jayden Pierre
  • F Micah Robinson
  • F David Punch
  • F Micah Robinson

Important stats, trends and insights: Duke vs. TCU

  • TCU is 20-14 ATS overall this season
  • Duke is 19-16 ATS overall this season
  • The OVER has cashed in 15 of TCU’s 34 games this season (15-19)
  • The OVER has cashed in 13 of Duke’s 35 games this season (13-22)
  • Micah Robinson was 4-6 from 3-point range in Round 1 against Ohio State
  • Cayden Boozer scored 19 points in the win over Siena

Rotoworld Best Bet

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NCAA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Saturday’s game between Duke and TCU:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on TCU +11.5
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 139.5

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

  • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
  • Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
  • Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
  • Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
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DUKE.png Duke Blue Devils
TCU.png TCU Horned Frogs
Men's College Basketball