Tracy Ringolsby knows who will finish in last place

He sounds certain, but will FOX’s Tracy Ringolsby bet his hat on it?

A month before spring training, fans of all 30 major league teams are supposed to have hope about what the coming season will bring. Makes for good marketing. Bottom line, however, is while there is reason for hope with most teams, there’s no argument over which teams are the worst.

First place in the six divisions is up for debate. Last place, however, is a slam dunk. Mark it down now.

Last place still belongs to the Royals in the AL Central, Oakland in the AL West, Toronto in the AL East, Washington in the NL East, Pittsburgh in the NL Central and San Diego in the NL West. These are not overnight failures. They have earned the distinction.

I take issue with Oakland in that group. Sure, they may very will finish in last place -- I’d probably pick them to finish there this year -- but they’re not an “earned failure” on the order of, say, Kansas City. They have some good young pitching. They are a battered, but perfectly respectable team in ways that the others in that crowd are not. They just happen to not be as good as the other three teams in the division. No shame in that.

I take less issue with the others, but still there is room to quibble. Toronto looks like a last place team, but they did finish 11 games ahead of Baltimore, so I don’t think anyone would die of shock if the O’s “beat” them out. Pittsburgh has to be the front runner for last place, but if you assume old players get worse and young players get better, Houston could easily fall below them this year. The Padres actually finished five games ahead of the Diamondbacks in 2009, so I don’t know that they’re a lock for last either.

I think the only rock solid locks for last place are the Royals and Nats. For everyone else: let’s play some games first, OK?