NBA Power Rankings: Milwaukee starts the season on top, but can it finish there?
The NBA season is finally here — and with that the NBC NBA power rankings are back. These will normally drop on Wednesday, but this week we are moving them up one week to celebrate the tip-off of the NBA season. The rankings reflect where I see teams today, heading into the season, not where I predict they will land come April and the start of the playoffs (I picked the Clippers to win it all, but they are shorthanded to start the season).
1. Bucks (60-22). Milwaukee had the best record in the NBA last season, they went 5-0 in the preseason with a stifling defense, and they still have Giannis Antetokounmpo. We can debate how much they will miss Malcolm Brogdon, but that may end up being more of a playoff concern than a regular season one. For most of the season they should be very high in these power rankings.
2. Nuggets (54-28). Any questions about Denver are really about the postseason, not the first 82. The combination of continuity, the league’s best home court advantage, and the rest of the West trying to sort out new pieces, should give the Nuggets the top seed in the West this season. Don’t be shocked if they make a mid-season trade to bring in a veteran to help alleviate the concerns about shot creation and defense in the playoffs.
3. 76ers (51-31). Philadelphia is my pick to come out of the East and make the NBA Finals, but the start of this season will see them still trying to figure the offense out. Fortunately, an elite defense anchored by Joel Embiid — he can be in the mix for Defensive Player of the Year — will carry them to wins while we wait to see if Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris can step up and carry the late-game load. Look for a strong season from Josh Richardson, this is a great fit for him.
4. Jazz (50-32). This is my dark horse team that could pull an upset the Los Angeles squads and come out of the West. They have the defense, Donovan Mitchell will take a step forward, and the Mike Conley/Rudy Gobert pick-and-roll will be a force. Another team that could make a mid-season trade to bolster them for the playoffs, where Utah is a genuine threat.
5. Rockets (53-29). James Harden and Russell Westbrook are going to blend better on offense than people think, and the Rockets are set up to win a lot of regular season games. Come the playoffs there are serious defensive questions — I would not rank Houston above the two Los Angeles teams below them for postseason success. Look for Danuel House Jr. to have a strong season as an athlete who can run with Westbrook.
6. Lakers (37-45). No Kyle Kuzma to start the season as he recovers from a stress reaction in his left foot. Frank Vogel has talked about going with an old school style defense with a defender back protecting the paint. Are Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee up for that? That kind of defense also asks the forwards to cover a lot of ground, and the Lakers backcourt has some defensive questions. The Lakers’ defense (and health) will be what determines how far they go in the postseason.
7. Clippers (Last Season 48-34). While everyone from NBA GMs to humble NBA pundits (*raises hand*) are picking the Clippers to win their first NBA title, L.A. starts the season without Paul George, who is still recovering from shoulder surgery. Kawhi Leonard is not going to have a minutes restriction to start the season, but expect the Clippers to be team load management as the season wears on.
8. Celtics (49-33). Kemba Walker is going to provide a lot of what Kyrie Irving did on offense for Boston, and his “put my arm around them and walk together” leadership style should lead to a better locker room dynamic. The Celtics defense, however, especially without Al Horford, is something to monitor. Bet the over in Boston games.
9. Raptors (58-24). The defending champions get their rings and the banner goes up in Toronto Tuesday night — it was all worth it. Kawhi Leonard is now back home in L.A., but the team that remains in Toronto is pretty good — unless they start trading guys to jumpstart the rebuild. Signing Kyle Lowry to a one-year, $31 million extension didn’t make him any less tradable. Toronto, if it starts out strong, may stand pat, but if they stumble the equation changes.
10. Warriors (57-24). Yes, Stephen Curry is going to put up numbers that have him in the MVP race (and you want him on your fantasy team). Yes, they still have Draymond Green at the four. Maybe D’Angelo Russell fits well with Curry creating a strong backcourt. But Glenn Robinson III will start at the three and there are legitimate concerns about the Warriors’ defense. They are going to lose some shootouts.
11. Trail Blazers (53-29). Number crunching advanced analytics predictions are down on Portland again, some have them even missing the playoffs. That’s not going to happen with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum in the backcourt. However, with Jusuf Nurkic out until the calendar flips to 2020, is Hassan Whiteside going to be the answer Portland needs in the paint in the deep West? Not sure a top four seed is in the cards in this conference.
12. Nets (42-40). If Brooklyn is going to climb into the top four in the East this season (without Kevin Durant, don’t bet on his return this season) then it’s going to be less about Kyrie Irving and more about Caris LeVert and Jarrett Allen having breakout seasons. Also keep an eye on Spencer Dinwiddie, he’s my preseason pick for Sixth Man of the Year.
13. Spurs (48-34). It’s tempting to pick against San Antonio making the playoffs and putting the fast-rising Mavericks or Kings in that slot, but after 22 straight playoff appearances are you really going to bet against Gregg Popovich and the Spurs? I’m not. They will defy league trends and have DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge shoot a lot from the midrange, but the Spurs also will not beat themselves. If Dejounte Murray is healthy and found a jump shot, watch out for a breakout season.
14. Mavericks (33-49). Kristaps Porzingis was moving well and looking good in the preseason, and if that continues — and Luka Doncic takes a step forward with his conditioning and game — the Mavericks could be a playoff team this season. If they make it will come down to whether Delon Wright and Dwight Powell can step up in larger roles and provide support to those two stars — and Powell is out to start the season due to a hamstring strain.
15. Heat (39-43). One of two teams (along with Portland) on the top of my list to make a win-now trade during the season. Look for the to try and flip the expiring Goran Dragic contract (and still good player) into a player that fits better next to Jimmy Butler. This is not a slow build situation in Miami, and you know Pat Riley is willing to be aggressive making moves.
16. Pacers (48-34). One of the hardest teams for me to pin down this season because of three questions: Can Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner work well next to each other on the front line? Is Malcolm Brogdon ready to handle being the No. 1 option and the guy scouting reports are focused on? When does Victor Oladipo return, and will he play at an All-NBA level again (and if so, how quickly)? I can see the Pacers ending up everywhere from a dangerous fifth seed nobody wants to face to being out of the playoffs entirely, depending upon how those questions are answered.
17. Kings (39-43). It’s natural to think that after a 12-game improvement last season up to 39 wins, the rapid trajectory of De’Aaron Fox and Sacramento will continue into this season. However, I expect it to plateau a little, they will get better and be around .500, flirting with a playoff slot in the deep West, but the rise will not be as rapid as Kings fans or ownership hope. They are desperate to end a 13-year playoff drought.
18. Timberwolves (36-46). When Robert Covington was healthy and on the court for Minnesota last season, the team’s defense was 6.9 points per 100 possessions better than when he sat, and statistically it played at the level of a top five defense in the league. Covington, if he can stay healthy, will be critical to the Timberwolves making a playoff run. There are also a lot of other teams coveting him via trade, there will be rumors. It’s something to watch.
19. Magic (42-40). This may be too low a ranking for a solid team that won 42 games last season, made the playoffs and brought the band back for another tour. All eyes are on Markelle Fultz, who in the preseason looked like a solid backup point guard for Orlando (a big step forward for him) but let’s see what happens when the trials and tribulations of the NBA regular season hits him.
20. Pistons (41-41). Another playoff team in the East from last season that may be too low on this list. Detroit is thinking playoffs or bust this season, don’t expect a mid-season sell off of Blake Griffin or anyone else unless things go very poorly the first half of the season. Kind of disappointed Joe Johnson didn’t make the final roster spot, but he looked old and a step slow in camp while Christian Wood played very well.
21. Pelicans (33-49). No Zion Williamson for the first 20-30 games of the regular season is a setback — in the preseason he had taken advantage of the better spacing of the NBA game to put up 55 points on 71 percent shooting in a couple of games. This is still a good team without him — Brandon Ingram has a lot to prove this season, something to watch — but not nearly as high on the must-watch list.
22. Bulls (22-60, LW 27). The Bulls could outperform teams such as the Pistons (and maybe the Magic or Pacers, if Indiana fall off) and sneak into the playoffs. I loved the Tomas Satoransky pick up this summer and he has played his way into the starting point guard job, I think he could have a breakout season now that he’s out of Washington.
23. Thunder (49-33). This may be too low for Oklahoma City, at least to start the season. They have a motivated Chris Paul (he will want to put up numbers and be revitalized to boost his trade value), they have a rock-solid center in Steven Adams, Danilo Gallinari can get buckets, and I love the play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. A number of those vets could be traded over the course of the season — OKC is rebuilding — but to start the season this is a pretty good roster.
24. Hawks (29-53). Talk to executives/scouts around the league about Atlanta and you hear a lot of “they are one year away” and an expectation they will plateau a little after last season (improving by only a handful of games). The leap is coming with this roster, especially Trae Young and John Collins, but this team shapes up to be terrible defensively and that will hold them back this season.
25. Suns (19-63). How much does having a competent point guard in Ricky Rubio help players such as Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Mikal Bridges get better, cleaner looks at the rim? Probably a lot. This is a team poised to make a leap and be much better than a year before, but the playoff dreams around this team are overstated. Improve by 15 games and they are still at 34 wins, which is not near enough in the West.
26. Wizards (32-50). Bradley Beal took the money and signed a contract extension, but with the player option it only really adds one season to his deal. What that means is Beal is off the market at this trade deadline (disappointing Denver) but is back on next summer in basically the same situation he was last summer. Between now and then Beal should put up big numbers on an otherwise struggling team.
27. Knicks (17-65). I know there’s a segment of Knicks fans who see a playoff team in this roster, I just do not. Frank Ntilikina looked good in FIBA and better than expected this preseason, RJ Barrett will get his chances, and we know the combo of Dennis Smith Jr. and Julius Randle will put up points, but unless Mitchell Robinson and others have some surprise breakout seasons this is an improved but still not terribly good team.
28. Grizzlies (33-49). With Zion Williamson out for a couple of months, it opens up the race for Rookie of the Year and Ja Morant could take charge of that race. He will have the ball in his hands and the opportunity. With Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and some other young players the Grizzlies are going to be entertaining, just young and not ready to win in the West.
29. Cavaliers (19-63). Eventually the focus around the Cavaliers will flip to Kevin Love trade rumors (they are coming, and Portland will be in the middle of them), but in the short term the meshing of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland in the backcourt will be something to watch. Sexton is poised to take a big step forward and be more of a leader in this team, we’ll see if he’s up to that task.
30. Hornets (39-43). GM Mitch Kupchak says that Charlotte will be rebuilt through the draft. Good idea… but they need to draft better (and get some higher picks). Here are their first-round picks for the past several years: P.J. Washington (2019), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2018, who was traded for Miles Bridges, a guy who needs to step forward this season), Malik Monk (2017), Malachi Richardson (2016, who was traded for Marco Belinelli), Frank Kaminsky (2015), and Noah Vonleh (2014).