Pat Riley: Heat will pursue two max players in 2020
In the 1995-96 season, the Heat traded for Alonzo Mourning and Tim Hardaway.
In 2004, the Heat traded for Shaquille O’Neal.
In 2010, the Heat signed LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.
Will Miami makes its next star splash in 2020?
Near-star Josh Richardson is locked into a relatively cheap contract for two more years. Bam Adebayo has two more seasons on his relatively low-paying rookie-scale deal. Justise Winslow, who’s maybe finding his groove, is guaranteed two more seasons on his rookie-scale extension.
That core could appeal to free agents in 2020, when Hassan Whiteside’s, Ryan Anderson’s and Goran Dragic’s contracts expire.
We’ve done this four times now, had a good group of players, young players, and then either through free agency or through trade brought the superstar in.
In 2020, we’ll have a lot of room. We’ll also have the possibility to have enough room to go after two max contracts. And we’re going to do that. So, we’re planning that 2020 will be the room year.
We’re very fluid. We’re very on top of it. And we are a destination place, Jax. The tax, the sun, the beautiful city. It’s a very progressive city, diverse city. So, we are a destination place. And we’re going to be moving in that direction.
That’s quite ambitious. But Riley has executed grand plans before. That will only embolden him to pursue this one.
It won’t be easy.
Miami projects to have just $34 million of cap space in 2020. A single max salary that summer projects to be $30 million-$41 million, depending on the player’s experience.
James Johnson ($16,047,100) and Kelly Olynyk ($13,598,243) have player options for the 2020-21 season. It’s difficult to see a 33-year-old Johnson or 29-year-old Olynyk declining those options. The Heat also owe Dion Waiters $12,650,000 that season.
Of course, there’s plenty of time to unload contracts. If this is Riley’s vision, keep an eye on those three players between now and next year’s trade deadline. Miami could also move its next two first-round picks to unload salary.
But even if the Heat clear double-max cap room, whom would the spend it on?
Anthony Davis is the big prize in 2020 free agency. After that, it’s slim pickings.
Most of this year’s All-Stars are already under contract for 2020-21. Several more – Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, Khris Middleton, Kemba Walker, D’Angelo Russell and Nikola Vucevic – will be free agents this summer. While some could sign a one-year or 1+1 contract to return to free agency next summer, I wouldn’t bet on that. Dwyane Wade will be retired by then and is already in Miami. Dirk Nowitzki will also likely retire by then, but even if he doesn’t, he’s neither leaving the Mavericks nor commanding a substantial salary.
That leaves Ben Simmons, Kyle Lowry and LaMarcus Aldridge.
Simmons will be eligible for a contract extension this offseason. Even if he doesn’t sign one, he’ll be restricted in 2020. It’s nearly impossible to see him getting away in free agency that year.
Lowry will be 34. The Heat showed interest in him before, but that was five years ago. As he leaves his prime, he won’t draw nearly as much attention.
Aldridge will become a 2020 free agent only if waived. His $24 million salary for 2020-21 is $7 million guaranteed. But if his team would rather pay him $7 million to leave than $24 million to stay, that’d say something about his value.
Other players will emerge. This is far from set in stone. But a little more than a year out, the 2020 free-agent class looks very weak.
Is that really the year the Heat want to splurge?
Riley has already once admitted he regretted saying he planned to go whale hunting. I wonder whether his 2020 plan will eventually inspire a similar evaluation.