Don’t bet against Patrick Mahomes.
After Mahomes led the Chiefs to a win over the favored 49ers on Sunday, Mahomes has an unprecedented record of 11-3 straight-up as an underdog, and 12-1-1 against the spread.
On Sunday, the 49ers were 1.5-point favorites in San Francisco but the Chiefs won 28-18. It was the first time this season that the Chiefs were the underdogs, and it was a reminder that picking against Mahomes is a risky proposition. In fact, Mahomes’ .786 winning percentage as an underdog is almost as good as his career .792 winning percentage as a favorite.
Mahomes’ strong record as an underdog began in the first start of his NFL career, when the Chiefs started him in place of Alex Smith for a meaningless game in the 2017 season finale. The Broncos were favored by 3 points over the Chiefs that day, but Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 27-24 win.
When Mahomes became the Chiefs’ starter in 2018, it took the betting world some time to adjust to how good he was, and the Chiefs were underdogs in both Week One and Week Two, winning both games outright. They were also 3.5-point underdogs in Week Six against the Patriots, losing the game by 3 but winning against the spread, and 3-point underdogs in Week 11 against the Rams, losing by 3 and pushing against the spread.
In 2019 Mahomes was only an underdog once, by 3 points against the Patriots, but he led the Chiefs to a 7-point win. In 2020 Mahomes was again only an underdog once, by 3.5 against the Ravens, and he led them to a 14-point win. In 2021 Mahomes was never an underdog.
In 2022 Mahomes was an underdog twice: As a 1-point underdog in Tampa Bay, he led Kansas City to a 10-point win. But as a 2.5-point underdog in Buffalo, the Chiefs lost by 4. That loss at Buffalo was the only time in Mahomes’ career that a bet on him as an underdog was a losing bet. The Chiefs were also 1-point underdogs against the Eagles in the Super Bowl at the end of that season, but Mahomes led them to a 3-point win.
Mahomes was never an underdog during the 2023 regular season, but the Chiefs were underdogs in three playoff games: Against the Bills in the divisional round, against the Ravens in the AFC Championship, and against the 49ers in the Super Bowl. Mahomes led them to wins in all three games.
Looking ahead at the Chiefs’ schedule, the only game when Mahomes might be an underdog the rest of the way is at Buffalo in Week 11, a game that should be circled on the calendar as one of the biggest of this NFL season.
