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PFT’s NFL Week Four 2021 picks

With Sunday's marquee Bucs-Pats matchup inching closer, Mike Florio and Chris Simms discuss where, when and how the relationship between Tom Brady and Bill Belichick went sour.

I can’t believe it’s already Week Four. (I probably say that for every Week Four.)

Last week, MDS and I correctly picked 10 of the 16 games.

For the season, I’ve still got a one-game lead, 29-19 to 28-20.

Our Week Four picks appear below. We have four disagreements, so things could soon get interesting.

For all selections, scroll away.

Jaguars (+7.5) at Bengals

MDS’s take: This looks like a stinker of a Thursday night game. The Bengals are getting their offense going in Year Two of Joe Burrow, while the Jaguars are failing to get their offense going in Year One of Trevor Lawrence.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 30, Jaguars 20.

Florio’s take: The Bengals have overachieved. The Jaguars have underachieved. On Thursday night, viewers will achieve a sustained state of yawning, eventually.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 34, Jaguars 17.

Washington (-1.5) at Falcons

MDS’s take: Both of these teams have been disappointing so far this season, but I see Washington as closer to turning things around.

MDS’s pick: Washington 24, Falcons 20.

Florio’s take: We expected the Falcons to struggle. We didn’t expect it from Washington. The edge in this one goes to the better overall team. Then again, if Washington can’t win this one, maybe they aren’t.

Florio’s pick: Washington 27, Falcons 24.

Lions (+3) at Bears

MDS’s take: My upset of the week is the Lions, who are playing hard each week for Dan Campbell, beating the Bears, who are struggling mightily with Matt Nagy.

MDS’s pick: Lions 17, Bears 13.

Florio’s take: The Bears will simplify the offense (it couldn’t get much more simple) and play sound defense. With rain in the forecast and Jared Goff having small hands that struggle to grip a wet ball, advantage Bears.

Florio’s pick: Bears 20, Lions 17.

Titans (-7.5) at Jets

MDS’s take: It’s hard to pick the Jets against anyone at this point. The Titans should cruise.

MDS’s pick: Titans 30, Jets 20.

Florio’s take: Tennessee is finding its groove. The Jets are still looking for their bottom.

Florio’s pick: Titans 31, Jets 23.

Browns (-2) at Vikings

MDS’s take: This is a very intriguing game between two teams that played well on Sunday. I like the Browns in a close one.

MDS’s pick: Browns 27, Vikings 24.

Florio’s take: Kevin Stefanski returns to the place where he worked from 2006 through 2019, a reunion not nearly as significant as the one that is coming later in the day. Stefanski knows how to come up with a game plan that attacks Mike Zimmer’s defense effectively.

Florio’s pick: Browns 24, Vikings 20.

Colts (+1.5) at Dolphins

MDS’s take: Dolphins quarterback Jacoby Brissett gets to play against his former team, and I think he’ll play better than Carson Wentz.

MDS’s pick: Dolphins 24, Colts 20.

Florio’s pick: The Colts are falling apart, one game at a time. The Dolphins are disappointing, too, but they should be able to pull this one off.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 27, Colts 21.

Panthers (+5) at Cowboys

MDS’s take: Matt Rhule has the Panthers’ defense playing very well, but I see Dak Prescott having a big game in a Cowboys win.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 31, Panthers 24.

Florio’s take: The Cowboys continue to show that they’ll be a force this season, thanks to a healthy Dak and a defense that’s better than it was last year. Not that it could have been any worse.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 34, Panthers 27.

Giants (+7.5) at Saints

MDS’s take: This Giants roster is just not good enough, and Dave Gettleman should be answering some tough questions about why that is. The Saints win big in their return to New Orleans.

MDS’s pick: Saints 31, Giants 17.

Florio’s take: The Giants won’t go winless, but they may not win one for a while, given their upcoming schedule. The Saints, meanwhile, return home in a big way.

Florio’s pick: Saints 31, Giants 14.

Chiefs (-7.5) at Eagles

MDS’s take: The Chiefs have underperformed this season, but I think they’ll put it all together in Philadelphia.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 38, Eagles 20.

Florio’s take: Andy Reid returns to Philadelphia to remind the Eagles again of what they let get away.

Florio’s pick: Chiefs 44, Eagles 27.

Texans (+16.5) at Bills

MDS’s take: The Texans are playing hard, but they just don’t have the talent, especially with rookie Davis Mills at quarterback. The Bills will cruise.

MDS’s pick: Bills 31, Texans 20.

Florio’s take: At least Houston got a Week One win. It may be the only one they get, until they play the Jaguars again.

Florio’s pick: Bills 41, Texans 16.

Cardinals (+4.5) at Rams

MDS’s take: The Cardinals have been one of the most exciting teams to watch this season, but I don’t think they’re the complete team the Rams are.

MDS’s pick: Rams 28, Cardinals 21.

Florio’s take: The Cardinals are a bit of an optical illusion at 3-0. The Rams are not.

Florio’s pick: Rams 31, Cardinals 24.

Seahawks (+2.5) at 49ers

MDS’s take: This should be a hard-fought game, but ultimately I think the Seahawks’ defense has too many holes.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 33, Seahawks 30.

Florio’s take: One of the best rivalries gets renewed, with the Seahawks getting desperate.

Florio’s pick: Seattle 31, 49ers 28.

Ravens (+1) at Broncos

MDS’s take: The Broncos are better than people are giving them credit for, and they’re going to keep it going on Sunday.

MDS’s pick: Broncos 24, Ravens 20.

Florio’s take: Baltimore keeps finding a way to win.

Florio’s pick: Ravens 28, Broncos 24.

Steelers (+6.5) at Packers

MDS’s take: Aaron Rodgers still has a lot left. Ben Roethlisberger does not..

MDS’s pick: Packers 28, Steelers 17.

Florio’s take: What a difference three weeks makes, for both teams.

Florio’s pick: Packers 31, Steelers 13.

Buccaneers (-6.5) at Patriots

MDS’s take: Tom Brady will shine in his return to New England.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Patriots 20.

Florio’s take: If Tom Brady gets too emotional, the Patriots have a chance. Look for the Patriots to do everything they can to activate the waterworks, and possibly to steal the win.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 24, Buccaneers 21.

Raiders (+3.5) at Chargers

MDS’s take: The Raiders keep finding ways to win, and they’ll do it again to improve to 4-0 and make a statement that they’re real contenders in the AFC West.

MDS’s pick: Raiders 21, Chargers 20.

Florio’s take: The Chargers are ready to make things more interesting in the AFC West, but first the Raiders have to cool off. They aren’t ready to, yet.

Florio’s pick: Raiders 27, Charger 23.