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PFT’s Week 6 2022 NFL picks

From Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen battling to be king, to a strong Cowboys defense taking on a flourishing Jalen Hurts, Mike Florio and Chris Simms outline the top NFL matchups for Week 6.

Yes, it’s already Week Six. Finally, the byes begin. Which means fewer opportunities to get games right.

And fewer opportunities to get games wrong.

Last week, I had another 12-4 performance. MDS went 11-5.

For the year, I’m at 49-30-1. MDS is 41-38-1.

This week, we disagree on five games. For all selections, keep scrolling.

Commanders (even) at Bears

MDS’s take: This should be the NFL’s second consecutive lousy Thursday night game, between two teams that appear to be having some buyer’s remorse about their quarterbacks. I have a little more faith in Justin Fields than in Carson Wentz.

MDS’s pick: Bears 16, Commanders 13.

Florio’s take: The short week is a bad week for any team to have a distraction created by the coach misspeaking. The misstep should help the Bears get back to .500.

Florio’s pick: Bears 20, Commanders 13.

49ers (-5.5) at Falcons

MDS’s take: The 49ers are now the clear favorites in the NFC West, and they’ll cruise against a Falcons team that isn’t going anywhere in the NFC South.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 27, Falcons 17.

Florio’s take: The 49ers don’t mess around with inferior foes; they dismantle them.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 30, Falcons 13.

Patriots (+2.5) at Browns

MDS’s take: The Browns have a good offense that should be able to move the ball against the Patriots, and I don’t trust rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe to put many points on the board even against a bad Cleveland defense.

MDS’s pick: Browns 24, Patriots 17.

Florio’s take: The Patriots are getting better. The Browns are becoming too inconsistent.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 24, Browns 20.

Jets (+7.5) at Packers

MDS’s take: Aaron Rodgers was right when he said that the Packers haven’t played four good quarters yet this season. I don’t think they’ll play a great game on Sunday, either, but I don’t think they’ll need to play a great game to beat the Jets.

MDS’s pick: Packers 27, Jets 24.

Florio’s take: The Packers are having a hard time putting inferior teams away. The Jets may not be all that inferior.

Florio’s pick: Packers 27, Jets 20.

Jaguars (+2) at Colts

MDS’s take: Early in the season I thought the Jaguars were making a lot of progress toward turning the franchise around. Sunday’s loss to the Texans made me reconsider that.

MDS’s pick: Colts 24, Jaguars 20.

Florio’s take: The Colts find a way to get on the right side of .500. Somehow.

Florio’s pick: Colts 20, Jaguars 17.

Vikings (-3.5) at Dolphins

MDS’s take: Top to bottom the Dolphins are the better team, but with rookie Skylar Thompson set to make the first start of his NFL career in Miami, I have to go with the Vikings.

MDS’s pick: Vikings 21, Dolphins 20.

Florio’s take: The Vikings keep doing just enough to win, thanks to plenty of good luck. Their luck runs out this week.

Florio’s pick: Dolphins 24, Vikings 21.

Bengals (-1.5) at Saints

MDS’s take: The Saints’ offense turned in an impressive performance without Jameis Winston last week, but the Bengals’ defense is playing very well this season and should lead them to a win in a low-scoring game.

MDS’s pick: Bengals 13, Saints 10.

Florio’s take: Joe Burrow returns to New Orleans and gets the Bengals back on the right track.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 28, Saints 20.

Ravens (-6) at Giants

MDS’s take: Give the Giants all the credit in the world for a 4-1 start in what was supposed to be a rebuilding season, but the Ravens are going to come to town and dominate them.

MDS’s pick: Ravens 30, Giants 17.

Florio’s take: Don’t be surprised if the Giants pull this one off, thanks to the knowledge of the offense carried to New York by former Ravens defensive coordinator Don Martindale.

Florio’s pick: Giants 24, Ravens 20.

Buccaneers (-8) at Steelers

MDS’s take: It’s been an ugly season for the Steelers, and it’s going to get uglier when a good Buccaneers defense gets its hands on Kenny Pickett.

MDS’s pick: Buccaneers 20, Steelers 7.

Florio’s take: The hole keeps getting deeper for the Steelers. It’s hard to imagine them getting embarrassed two weeks in a row.

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Steelers 17.

Panthers (+10) at Rams

MDS’s take: PJ Walker will be an improvement over Baker Mayfield as the Panthers’ starting quarterback, but this Panthers team has too many holes, and the Rams should cruise.

MDS’s pick: Rams 30, Panthers 20.

Florio’s take: The Rams get back on track against a team reeling from the firing of Matt Rhule.

Florio’s pick: Rams 31, Panthers 13.

Cardinals (-3) at Seahawks

MDS’s take: The Seahawks’ offense has defied all expectations with Geno Smith running the show, but at some point they’re going to come back to earth, and I think that point may come this week.

MDS’s pick: Cardinals 17, Seahawks 16.

Florio’s take: The Seahawks are inconsistent. This feels like a week when they’ll be due to finagle a win.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 30, Cardinals 27.

Bills (-2.5) at Chiefs

MDS’s take: This is billed as Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes, but to me the difference is that the Bills have a better defense and better special teams.

MDS’s pick: Bills 28, Chiefs 24.

Florio’s take: This one may determine the site of the rematch. Last year, it didn’t. The Bills are the better team right now, the Chiefs are operating on a short week, and the Buffalo starters got a little extra rest during their blowout of the Steelers.

Florio’s pick: Bills 31, Chiefs 24.

Cowboys (+6) at Eagles

MDS’s take: This looked like a good game before the season, but it looks like a great game now. The Eagles will earn a hard-fought win and put themselves in prime position to walk away with the NFC East.

MDS’s pick: Eagles 27, Cowboys 20.

Florio’s take: This one could go either way. The defense gives the Cowboys a slight edge.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 20, Eagles 19.

Broncos (+4.5) at Chargers

MDS’s take: The Broncos’ offense has been abysmal this season, and I don’t see them scoring much on Monday night in Los Angeles. Justin Herbert will lead the Chargers to what should be an easy win.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 28, Broncos 14.

Florio’s take: At least this one isn’t in Denver.

Florio’s pick: Chargers 27, Broncos 16.