Week 16 begins with a bang. But there’s a slow burn that can’t be ignored.
The 11-3 Rams will visit the 11-3 Seahawks on Thursday night. It’s a massive game, featuring two of the best teams in the league. The winner assumes the driver’s seat in the NFC West, with an inside track to the No. 1 seed and the lone bye that comes with it.
But what about the third-place team in the division? You know, the San Francisco 49ers? They went to the Super Bowl two years ago. Injuries derailed the 2024 season. In 2025, an early rash of key sprains, strains, and/or fractures didn’t throw the campaign off course.
Here they are, at 10-4. Despite eight games without quarterback Brock Purdy. Despite losing defensive end Nick Bosa to a torn ACL, and defensive leader Fred Warner to a dislocated and fractured ankle. Despite not having much high-end talent consistently available at the receiver position. Really, but for running back Christian McCaffrey (the favorite to win comeback player of the year and a potential candidate to make a late run at MVP), the 49ers arguably would be lost.
But they’re not. They visit the cratering Colts on Monday night. Then, they host the Bears and the Seahawks. What happens if they run the table?
Here’s one very realistic outcome, if the Seahawks beat the Rams on Thursday night. With a 4-1 record in the division and a split with the Rams, the 49ers would win any tiebreakers with the Rams or Seattle (which the 49ers beat in Week 1).
So if the Rams fall to 11-4 and the Seahawks move to 12-3, the 49ers would control their path to the division title. And the No. 1 seed, since a win over the Bears would give the 49ers the best record in the conference, at 13-4.
Much of this scenario hinges on the Rams losing to the Seahawks, since the Rams finish against the Falcons and Cardinals. San Francisco would be able to pick up a game on the Seahawks, because they play them again. Picking up a game on the Rams would require an upset by the Falcons or the Cardinals.
For now, the point is this: The 49ers are firmly in play for the NFC West title, the No. 1 seed, the bye week, and a pair of home games to play before the Super Bowl, which will happen in their home stadium.
