The 2026 WNBA season officially tips off today. The league’s 30th season has been greatly anticipated because of the plans the league and its teams have to celebrate the legacy and the deep history of the longest-running women’s professional sports league in the United States.
With the introduction of two more teams in the Portland Fire and the Toronto Tempo, the result is much more competition for playoff spots. Last season around 62 percent of all the teams made it to the postseason, but in 2026 that number shrinks to just over 53 percent.
As a result, the tiers that make up the league have shifted. There is a contender group of four different teams at the top and then a group of four at the bottom of the league that are investing more in the team’s future rather than the present. But in between those teams at the top and the bottom, there are seven teams that will be jockeying in a rat race for just four more playoff spots.
Below, I reveal my predictions for the major awards, the winner of the mid-season tournament, the Commissioner’s Cup, which teams actually make the playoffs, and the eventual season champions of the 2026 WNBA finals.
2026 WNBA Predictions
MVP: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces
Unless A’ja Wilson misses a considerable chunk of the regular season due to an unforeseen injury, it would be quite difficult to leave the 4x MVP out of the conversation. Everything the Aces do revolves around her: not just her scoring, but her ability to defend any position on the floor and create a certain level of gravity that opens up the floor for her teammates.
Wilson also always returns to the WNBA with a new skill that she’s ready to show off. My prediction is that she establishes herself even more as a passer this season and makes more plays than she has previously in her career.
There is a case for MVP for each player from the teams that I believe will finish the regular season with a top-five seed. Breanna Stewart won’t be far behind Wilson, but also Paige Bueckers, Allisha Gray and Caitlin Clark will all pick up votes for their performances throughout the regular season.
Defensive Player of the Year: Gabby Williams, Golden State Valkyries
With Gabby Williams as the focal point of the Valkyries, one of the best defensive teams from a year ago, I expect Golden State’s defensive identity to grow. While Williams led the league in steals a year ago, Valkyries head coach Natalie Nakase will use Williams in ways that make it quite clear that Williams can defend any type of player at any time on the floor. I have a lot of questions about the Valkyries’ offense, especially since floor spacing center Iliana Rupert will be out for the season as she’s pregnant.
Golden State’s offense won’t be pretty, but their defense will be, and Williams will be the head of the snake. She and the Valkyries will make some of the league’s best offenses look feeble. 2026 will mark the first year since 2018 that a front-court player doesn’t win this award. Williams will be the first wing since Alanna Beard to do so.
Rookie of the Year: Olivia Miles, Minnesota Lynx
Olivia Miles will have the most meaningful opportunity of any rookie entering the 2026 season to be able to make an impact on her team immediately. Between head coach Cheryl Reeve officially naming her “the point guard” of this team in addition to Miles confessing how strange it is for her to be telling league veterans where to go during practice, Reeve has given Miles the keys to the team until Napheesa Collier returns.
While Miles is the clear frontrunner, Flau’jae Johnson is my dark horse in this category. She, too, will have an opportunity to play her game for the Storm on a team where the focus is clearly on the future. Johnson averaged 16 points over her two preseason games. While the preseason isn’t often an indicator of regular-season success, Johnson just looked more comfortable in head coach Sonia Raman’s offense than she ever did at LSU playing in Kim Mulkey’s.
Sixth Player of the Year: Chennedy Carter, Las Vegas Aces
Chennedy Carter has the potential to provide the Aces and Wilson some relief if she has close to the season she had in 2024 when she was last in the league. The pressure she puts on the rim is going to make spacing the floor so much easier for Las Vegas. Her first step is the most lethal in the league and is often unguardable.
While I believe that Carter is the frontrunner, both Maddy Siegirist of the Wings and Cameron Brink of the Sparks have a reasonable case for this award, barring injury. Siegrist presumably will be the first wing/front-court player coming off the bench.
Her ability to space the floor will be incredibly valuable, especially when the Wings presumably will put out a startling lineup including non-shooter Jessica Shepard. Siegrist has established herself as a microwave scorer, and she could thrive in a situation where defenses are glued to Bueckers, Azzi Fudd and Arike Ogunbowale.
Brink’s impact will most likely come at the defensive end, and I am anticipating that the Sparks’ off-on numbers with her on the floor are going to be quite jarring. Brink is one of the better rim protectors in the league who will be providing relief to two front-court players in Nneka Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby who just don’t protect the rim. Brink’s case becomes clearer if she adds some offense to her minutes on the floor.
Most Improved Player: Dominique Malonga, Seattle Storm
With a Seattle Storm offense presumably built around Dominique Malonga and Johnson, I expect Malonga to take a major jump in year two. Malonga opted to play her WNBA offseason in the United States for Unrivaled instead of playing in Turkey, and during this time, she was able to continue to not only refine her game but also adjust to playing against the best players in the world.
Other players to watch out for in this race include Angel Reese and Julie Allemand. With Reese on a team that is made for her skillset and will allow her to develop into more of a force in the WNBA, upticks in efficiency and three-point shooting will support her case. Allemand is very much a sleeper for this award, but Tempo head coach Sandy Brondello’s praise of her on Richard Deitsch’s latest podcast was intriguing. Brondello expects Allemand to have the most impact on the Tempo than she’s had in her WNBA career. She’s also coming off winning a 2026 EuroLeague Women Final Six MVP and led her Turkish team Fenerbahçe to a EuroLeague title.
Coach of the Year: Karl Smesko, Atlanta Dream
This could depend on how Reese’s third season goes, but if Smesko is able to integrate her smoothly and develop her game meaningfully in addition to coaching this team to another top-two seed, I don’t see how he doesn’t win the award. The Dream’s continuity will allow them to reach new levels of dominance in Smesko’s second year.
I will also be looking out for how Smesko has adjusted and improved year over year after his late-game situation playcalling skills were challenged against the Indiana Fever in last year’s first round of the 2025 WNBA playoffs.
Jose Fernandez is someone else I will have my eyes on, but his challenge is far steeper. Not only is he a first-year WNBA coach, but he has a bunch of players who haven’t played in his system, or even together, before.
Executive of the Year: Curt Miller, Dallas Wings
Executive of the Year awards are often won in the offseason rather than the regular season. And the fact that Miller was able to pluck a half of the Lynx’s 2025 front court in a free agency period that lasted less than three weeks, is impressive. Miller balanced the Wings out as a team that has veteran pieces that can fit well around Dallas’ dynamic franchise player Paige Bueckers.
The only thing that might stop Miller from winning this award is if those two free agent acquisitions in Alanna Smith and Jessica Shepard under perform. If they do or if injuries ensue, executives also in this race include Liberty general manager Jonathan Kolb for keeping the Liberty’s core together while adding even more proven depth to it, and Dream general manager Dan Padover for pulling off almost a heist in the Angel Reese trade.
Playoff teams:
1. Las Vegas Aces
2. New York Liberty
3. Atlanta Dream
4. Indiana Fever
5. Dallas Wings
6. Minnesota Lynx
7. Los Angeles Sparks
8. Toronto Tempo
As alluded to above, there are going to be three major tiers in the league this year. The four contenders that by default will make the postseason are the Las Vegas Aces, New York Liberty, Atlanta Dream and Indiana Fever.
Then the teams at the bottom that are focused most on player development and draft lottery positioning are the Mystics, Sun, Storm and Fire. That leaves seven in the Wings, Lynx, Mercury, Sparks, Sky, Tempo and Valkyries to fill the final four playoff spots.
Who do I believe will pull it off? It will come down to superior coaching and some injury luck, which could also be said about which teams win the WNBA title as well. The Wings make the playoffs because their roster has too much talent not to. The Lynx make the playoffs as well because of Reeve’s ability to get a group to play above what’s on paper.
And then the final two spots will go to the Sparks, who will return to the postseason for the first time since 2020 and then expansion franchise the Tempo. Brondello’s streak of playoff appearances will continue into 2026. This might be a bold choice, but the Mercury and the Valkyries, who have two of the best coaches in the league, will miss the postseason by a hair on the last day of the regular season.
Commissioner’s Cup Winner: Atlanta Dream
In some years, the winner of the Commissioner’s Cup was a fair predictor of who was going to be in the WNBA Finals. This year won’t be one of those years just like it wasn’t last year. The Fever defeated the Lynx in 2025, and those were the teams to make it to the semifinals rather than the finals.
This season, there will be one team that does make it to the finals and that will be the Aces, a team that is motivated to start the season better than they did a year ago. The Aces have the continuity and some more depth to be able to start strong. Another team I imagine will hit the ground running in 2026 will be the Dream.
I see the Dream winning their first trophy as an organization but in the middle of the season rather than right at the end.
WNBA Finals Winner: New York Liberty
The Liberty will prove that they aren’t a one-hit wonder in 2026, something they failed to do in 2025 when they had a flawed and mostly injured roster. While New York will begin 2026 a little rocky and affected by injury, this is a team playing for October. The pieces will begin to really click in August and September after months of the team winning games mostly on the merit of their talent.
New York will face their rival in the Las Vegas Aces, and this matchup in particular will solidify Liberty vs. Aces as the defining rivalry of the WNBA’s golden age. This series will be a classic that goes six games with the Liberty winning the title on their own home floor.
