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We march on with the conference tournament plays and it’s another jam-packed card for Friday. I explain where the value is in TCU-Kansas and Ohio-Kent State for my two favorite bets.
Odds are opening lines courtesy of PointsBet
TCU Horned Frogs (+8) vs. Kansas Jayhawks
This line feels off to me. These two teams met twice last week and both games were competitive. TCU won by 10 at home and lost by six in Kansas. I’m not sure the Jayhawks should be -8 on a neutral court.
I’ve been saying for the last month that despite having a +1800 ticket on Kansas to win it all, I’m concerned about the Jayhawks. Kansas’ interior defense is soft and that’s something TCU is built to exploit.
In the two matchups this season, the Horned Frogs outscored Kansas 72-58 in the paint. Not many teams that play the Jayhawks twice can say that.
Key Metric: Offensive rebounding
Kansas can struggle against teams with bigger frontlines and that is TCU’s strength. Led by Emanuel Miller, Chuck O’Bannon, and Eddie Lumpkin, the Horned Frogs are the second-best offensive rebounding team in the country. That trio combines to average 16.2 boards a game. TCU’s size was a big factor in the first meeting when the Horned Frogs pulled down 28 offensive rebounds.
TCU also does a good job of turning those offensive boards into points. The Horned Frogs ranks 18th in second-chance conversion percentage, according to Haslametrics. The Horned Frogs scored 28 second-chance points in the two games.
Kansas C David McCormack is a good player but he doesn’t always show up against physical frontlines. In two games against TCU, McCormack scored 21 points on 4-of-13 shooting. He also had just 12 rebounds. That’s low for the nation’s second leading offensive rebounder.
Another thing to watch for in this game is turnovers. TCU really struggles against guards who pressure the ball. The Horned Frogs rank 329th in turnover percentage. However, Kansas doesn’t force a ton of turnovers, so I don’t see the Jayhawks being able to take advantage of this weakness. TCU had just 22 turnovers in the first two matchups.
Again, I watched both games and saw two evenly matched teams. I make this line Kansas -6. I’d bet TCU down to +7.
Pick: TCU +8
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Ohio Bobcats vs. Kent State Golden Flashes (-1)
Kent State delivered for us yesterday and I’m going right back to the Golden Flashes on Friday. The last time Kent State lost a game was on Jan. 21. The Golden Flashes’ 13-straight wins includes a 75-52 blowout over Ohio.
The Bobcats struggled down the stretch losing four of their last five games. One reason for the decline is Ohio doesn’t have much depth. The Bobcats really play just six guys and rank 319th in bench minutes. This was a tired basketball team late in the season.
Kent State cruised past Miami (OH) on Thursday. Don’t let the 85-75 score fool you. The game wasn’t nearly that close. The Golden Flashes were in charge the entire way and led by 19 points with 3:40 left in the game.
Key Metric: Kent State’s three-point defense
Just like yesterday, I’m focusing on Kent State’s perimeter defense to be the difference. Miami’s offense revolves around shooting threes and the Golden Flashes held them to just 5-of-25 (20%) from beyond the arc.
Ohio is very similar to Miami. The Bobcats rank 40th in three-point scoring rate and 28th in three-point attempts per game. As I pointed out with Miami, this plays right into the hands of a Kent State defense that ranks 38th in defending the three-point shot. The last time the two teams met, Ohio shot a dismal 5-of-28 (17.9%) from long range.
Kent State remains undervalued in the betting market. They should have been closer to -8 yesterday and I make the Golden Flashes -4 here. I would bet Kent State as an underdog or favorite up to -3 if the line moves that way.
Pick: Kent State -1
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