Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to play Ohio State’s Brice Sensabaugh’s O/U 16.5 Points Prop in Columbus against Penn State.
Brice Sensabaugh O/U 16.5 Points vs. Ohio State
Ohio State and Penn State meet for the first time and we focus on freshman guard Brice Sensabaugh’s points prop without Zed Key in the lineup.
Without Key, Sensabaugh is the clear No. 1 option for the offense. In the previous game without Key, Sensabaugh scored 20 points at Purdue in a 82-55 loss, plus 22 points at Maryland on Jan. 8.
Now, Sensabaugh is at home where he averages 15.7 points per game (14 games) and is looking for a bounce back. In his past two home games, the freshman guard scored eight points versus Michigan State and four points against Northwestern.
In the rest of his Big Ten home games, Sensabaugh dropped 13, 27, 18 and 21 points on Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern and Purdue.
Sensabaugh has attempted at least four three-pointers in seven-straight games and 17 out of the past 20 games. Penn State has the 12th-ranked three-point defense in Big Ten play (35.6%) and that moves to an even worse 40.1% in road games (351st).
Sensabaugh is hitting 42.9% from three at home on 4.5 attempts, plus 50.3% from the field and 80.2% from the free-throw line. This is a positive matchup for him in Columbus.
Ohio State has lost eight-straight games but are -2 favorites. If the Buckeyes win or hang around, Sensabaugh should be a big reason why. When OSU has won, Sensabaugh averages 17.3 points per game and 19.1 points per game in those wins with 20 or more minutes.
I played Sensabaugh Over 16.5 Points at -130 odds and would go out to -150.
Pick: Brice Sensabaugh Over 16.5 Points (1u)
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