Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s backing Virginia in the College Basketball Futures market with five games remaining in the regular season.
ACC Regular Season Winner: Virginia (-180)
The ACC is coming down to the wire and depending on where you are shopping, you can still get some value on the Virginia Cavaliers to win the ACC’s Regular Season title.
It is a three-team race between Virginia, Pittsburgh and Miami who are all 12-4 or better in conference action. Virginia is barely holding onto the conference, but there are a few factors in why the Cavs have the upper hand.
Pittsburgh beat Virginia earlier in the season (68-65) and that was the only meeting. Pitt beat Miami (71-68) earlier in the season as well, so the Panthers have the tie-breaker over both squads. Miami beat Virginia (66-64), so everyone has a win up on Virginia, but they still control their own destiny.
Virginia will be favored in three out of the remaining four games (maybe at UNC) and potentially so will Pitt. Miami has the fewest games remaining and has a two-game home stand to finish the regular season and will be favorites in all three, including a home game versus Pitt.
Looking over the schedule, it is very possible for Virginia to go 4-0 to close out the regular season and Miami to go 3-0, pending the Pitt outcome. For the Panthers, Pitt’s schedule looks like a potential disaster to end the ACC regular season after the loss at Virginia Tech.
Virginia has four games remaining with two at home:
At Boston College, At North Carolina, Vs Clemson and Vs Louisville.
Pittsburgh has four games remaining with two at home:
Vs Georgia Tech, Vs Syracuse, At Notre Dame, At Miami
Miami has three games remaining with two at home:
At Virginia Tech, Vs Florida State, Vs Pitt
Virginia has won 11 of its last 12 games since its loss to Pitt, while the Panthers won six-straight games before their loss at Virginia Tech. Miami’s won six-straight games but were 3-4 in the previous seven games, so it’s clear all three teams are playing the best or some of the best basketball of the season.
I cannot back Pitt since they end the season on a two-game road trip at Notre Dame and Miami. For the Hurricanes, Miami had an amazing March Madness run last season and there is no reason why they cannot replicate a similar run, but I think Virginia is the short-term pick here and Miami is the long-term.
Shop around but I backed Virginia at -145 odds to win the ACC Regular Season on Saturday. This grew to -180 and -200 on some sites after Virginia’s win and Pitt’s loss. Some sites have not listed the updated odds.
It looks like a clear-cut road for Virginia and the Cavs control their own destiny. Virginia would have to lose one or two games to Boston College, North Carolina, Clemson or Louisville. I don’t see the happening and Miami will have two big games at Virginia Tech and hosting Pitt in the meantime.
I would go out to -200 for risking 2 units. Miami (+280) would be the clear second choice as a hedge.
Pick: Virginia (Risk 2u)
FUTURES ALREADY IN POCKET
0.5u: VCU to win the A-10 Regular Season Title (+350)
0.5u: Marquette to win the Big East Regular Season Title (+130)
0.5u: Arizona to make the Final 4 (+400)
0.25u: Arizona to win the National Championship (+1600)
0.25u: Tennessee to make the Final 4 (+350)
0.25u: Iowa State to win the Big 12 Regular Season Title (+350)
0.2u: Iowa State to make the Final 4 (+1000)
0.2u: Marquette to make the Final 4 (+800)
0.1u: Michigan State to win the Big Ten (+3000)
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